| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Orono High School | Scarlet | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Benilde St Margarets | Red | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,021 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 30 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.470 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orono High School | 4.18 | 5.94 | 9–3 | 6.0 | +1.75 | 2.9 | 5% |
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 5.55 | 6.19 | 10–2 | 9.1 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 4 | Southwest Senior High School | 3.05 | 2.81 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 3 | Wayzata High School | 5.45 | 4.38 | 7–5 | 8.9 | −1.07 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 5 | Benilde St Margarets | 2.71 | 1.14 | 1–11 | 2.6 | −1.57 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erich Pinske | Orono High School | 1.17 | 2.92 | 9–3 | 6.0 | +1.75 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Cort Vandlik | Minnetonka High School | 2.19 | 2.83 | 10–2 | 9.1 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Nate Olmsted | Minnetonka High School | 1.67 | 2.13 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.46 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Tighe Case | Southwest Senior High School | 1.08 | 0.83 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Wiley Hunt | Wayzata High School | 1.19 | 0.12 | 7–5 | 8.9 | −1.07 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Riley Norman | Benilde St Margarets | 0.99 | -0.57 | 1–11 | 2.6 | −1.57 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Joey Simpson | Benilde St Margarets | 1.01 | -0.55 | 1–11 | 2.6 | −1.57 | 1.3 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Scarlet | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Scarlet | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Navy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Scarlet | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Red | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red | 2-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Navy | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Scarlet | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navy | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Navy | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Carl Eaton '17 Cort Vandlik '17 Graham Ness '19 Nate Olmsted '19 |
Rowan O'Connell '20 Hannah Dillahunt '17 Connor Wacker '19 Rita Usmanova '19 Lexie Baker '19 |
|
Orono High School | Scarlet | Erich Pinske '18 Rachel Bartel '20 Samuel Bartel '18 |
Archie Bolgar '19 Helen Mcdonnell '17 Chase Blum '18 Erik Sundberg '17 |
|
Wayzata High School | Navy | Emma Aubuchon '19 Jackson Connell '17 Wiley Hunt '19 |
Anna Brew '17 Brianna Misk '17 Divya Periakaruppan '20 |
|
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | Lachlan Anders-Macleod '17 Thomas Jagielski '18 Tighe Case '18 |
Teddy Damm '17 Nicole Guiliani '20 Remi Clark '19 |
|
Benilde St Margarets | Red | Joey Simpson '17 Riley Norman '19 Walker Mullin '19 |
Caroline Murphy '17 Aaron Wachowiak '19 Clare Leeper '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
