Southwest High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 (fleet 0.52) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–21 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 10–7 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 8–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 18–21 against 18.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-20 | LMSS Team Race VARSITY | skipper | 0.82 | 0.36 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.46 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2017-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.78 | 1.37 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 2016-05-21 | LMSS TEAM RACE | skipper | 1.02 | 0.82 | 4–8 | 4.3 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.82 | 0.68 | 4–6 | 4.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Simon Rothman |  Wesleyan University |
'21 |
| ISSA | Simon Rothman |  Edina High School |
'17 |
| ISSA | Simon Rothman |  Washburn High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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