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MISSA West Mallory Pre-Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 29 24 53
2 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 25 33 58
3 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 39 21 60
4 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 22 45 67
5 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 33 40 73
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 55 21 76
7 White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 37 75 112
8 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 63 78 141
9 Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 76 66 142
10 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 77 66 143
11 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 86 66 152
12 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 82 90 172
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 5 2 1 9 2 1 1 22 Samuel Bartel '18 [1-8]
Erich Pinske '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Archie Bolgar '19 [5-6]
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3 2 7 4 4 1 2 2 25 Jack Schweda '20
Chloe Frentzel '17
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 4 3 3 5 2 3 6 3 29 Jackson Connell '17
Mckenna Miller '16
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 2 4 8 3 3 6 3 4 33 Josh Sullivan '16
Karan Jain '19
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 5 8 1 2 5 5 5 6 37 Kate Cox '16
Olivia Staruck '16
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 8 1 4 12 1 4 4 5 39 Christian Spencer '18
Paul Mclean '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 6 9 5 8 6 7 7 7 55 Lily Loosbrock '17 [1-8]
Mike Johnson '17 [1-6]
Carl Eaton '17 [7-8]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 10 6 6 6 7 10 9 9 63 Simon Rothman '17
Remi Clark '20
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 7 7 12 9 10 12 8 11 76 Joey Simpson '17
Caroline Murphy '17
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 12 12 9 7 8 11 10 8 77 Will Grosspietsch '18
Graves Anna '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 9 10 10 10 11 8 12 12 82 Lucas Haarstad '17
Julia Ward '19
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 11 11 11 11 12 9 11 10 86 Izzi Boo '16 [1-8]
Courtney Clark '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Annika Hsu '17 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 2 5 1 1 1 4 2 5 21 Alex Keck '17 [1-8]
Myles Murphy '16 [1-2]
Jane Rogers '17 [3-8]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 1 21 Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 [1-8]
Graham Ness '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Lizzy Holimann '16 [5-6]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 1 1 2 5 4 2 5 4 24 Charlie Hicks '16 [1-8]
Brianna Misk '17 [1-4]
Charles "Alex" Honke '16 [5-8]
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 7 7 8 4 2 1 1 3 33 Lily Stemper '20 [1-4]
Jonothan Bailey '19 [5-8]
Gavin Burkhart '16 [1-6]
Erin Schaubel '18 [7-8]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 4 3 OCS 3 6 5 4 2 40 Toby Sullivan '19
Jose Verela '19
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 6 4 5 6 5 7 6 6 45 Henry Jaffray '18
Erik Sundberg '17
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 5 10 6 9 9 9 10 8 66 Anneka Ecker '17
Clara Brown '18
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 8 6 7 8 10 11 7 9 66 Walker Mullin '19
Liam Long '17
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 9 11 3 11 7 6 8 11 66 Megan Grosspietsch '16
Mackenzie Saucke '17
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 11 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 75 Ethan Staruck '19
Charlie Wagner '16
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 10 9 10 7 8 12 12 10 78 Grover Warner '19
Henry Chadbourn '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 12 12 11 12 12 8 11 12 90 Ryan Bohara '18
Ana Haarstad '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks1010121214141616
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Red1111131315151717
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity1212141416161818
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School Varsity1313151517171919
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs1414161618182020
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers1515171719192121
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers1616181820201010
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons1717191921211111
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity1818202010101212
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity1919212111111313
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue2020101012121414
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears2121111113131515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks1111131315151717
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Red1212141416161818
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity1313151517171919
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School Varsity1414161618182020
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs1515171719192121
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers1616181820201010
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers1717191921211111
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons1818202010101212
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity1919212111111313
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity2020101012121414
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue2121111113131515
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears1010121214141616
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Jack Schweda '20 Chloe Frentzel '17
Warhawks Lily Stemper '20 [1-4]
Jonothan Bailey '19 [5-8]		 Gavin Burkhart '16 [1-6]
Erin Schaubel '18 [7-8]
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Joey Simpson '17 Caroline Murphy '17
Red Walker Mullin '19 Liam Long '17
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Lucas Haarstad '17 Julia Ward '19
Varsity Ryan Bohara '18 Ana Haarstad '19
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Christian Spencer '18 Paul Mclean '17
Varsity Alex Keck '17 [1-8] Myles Murphy '16 [1-2]
Jane Rogers '17 [3-8]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Izzi Boo '16 [1-8] Courtney Clark '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Annika Hsu '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Zephyrs Anneka Ecker '17 Clara Brown '18
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Lily Loosbrock '17 [1-8] Mike Johnson '17 [1-6]
Carl Eaton '17 [7-8]
Skippers Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 [1-8] Graham Ness '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Lizzy Holimann '16 [5-6]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Josh Sullivan '16 Karan Jain '19
Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 Jose Verela '19
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Will Grosspietsch '18 Graves Anna '18
Raccoons Megan Grosspietsch '16 Mackenzie Saucke '17
Orono High School Orono High School Samuel Bartel '18 [1-8] Erich Pinske '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Archie Bolgar '19 [5-6]
Varsity Henry Jaffray '18 Erik Sundberg '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Simon Rothman '17 Remi Clark '20
Varsity Grover Warner '19 Henry Chadbourn '18
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Jackson Connell '17 Mckenna Miller '16
Blue Charlie Hicks '16 [1-8] Brianna Misk '17 [1-4]
Charles "Alex" Honke '16 [5-8]
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Kate Cox '16 Olivia Staruck '16
Bears Ethan Staruck '19 Charlie Wagner '16

Conditions — 04/16/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1026.5 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From ESE (109°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1026.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pewaukee Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pewaukee Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Pewaukee Yacht Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →