Wayzata High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.34 (fleet 2.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 53–23 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 31–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 22–15 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 37–16 against 32.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.99 | 2.63 | 9–5 | 7.6 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 2016-05-21 | LMSS TEAM RACE | skipper | 1.71 | 4.65 | 14–1 | 9.7 | +2.94 | 5.8 | 1% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.81 | 3.10 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.29 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.91 | 0.71 | 6–8 | 8.4 | −1.20 | 1.6 | 97% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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