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Boys MN St. Tournament

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 19 19
2 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 2 21 21
3 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 23 23
4 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 2 31 31
5 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 1 36 36
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 36 36
7 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 44 44
8 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 45 45
9 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 52 52
10 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 56 56
11 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 3 67 67
12 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 3 69 69
13 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 75 75
14 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 82 82
15 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 3 82 82
16 Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 98 98
17 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 4 99 99
18 White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 100 100
19 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 113 113
20 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 1 118 118
21 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 5 120 120
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 3 8 2 1 1 4 19 Toby Sullivan '19 [1-3]
Josh Sullivan '16 [4-6]
Josh Sullivan '16 [1-3]
Toby Sullivan '19 [4-6]
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 2 5 1 3 7 2 3 21 Dane Pedersen '15
Michael Donadio '17
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 2 2 10 3 5 1 23 Samuel Bartel '18
Erich Pinske '18
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 2 4 11 7 4 3 2 31 Charlie Hicks '16
Alex Honke '16
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 1 6 3 4 9 7 7 36 Jackson Connell '17
Wiley Hunt '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 14 5 6 2 4 5 36 Carl Eaton '17
Mike Johnson '17
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 1 10 8 11 8 6 44 Tate Nolte '16
Tighe Case '18
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 15 4 1 6 10 9 45 Greg Moore '15
Dan Callister '19
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 9 7 5 8 6 17 52 Thor Hsu '15 [1-4]
Nick Kuehn '15 [5-6]
Nick Kuehn '15 [1-4]
Thor Hsu '15 [5-6]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 8 12 9 5 9 13 56 Jason Davis '17
Lachlan Anders-Macleod '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 3 10 6 12 13 11 15 67 Michael Stone '15
Luc Mainguy '15
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 3 12 9 11 15 12 10 69 Solomon Dworsky '17
Erik Sundberg '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 7 14 15 14 14 11 75 Simon Rothman '17
Lauritz (Lolo) Young-Walser '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 11 13 17 16 13 12 82 Graham Ness '19
Stratford Vandlik '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 3 17 18 13 10 16 8 82
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 13 19 18 17 17 14 98 Aj Adducci '15
Jack Wall '17
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 4 16 15 14 21 15 18 99 Jordan Leines '15
Max Penner '18
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 20 17 16 12 19 16 100 Ethan Staruck '19
Charlie Wagner '16
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 18 16 21 20 18 20 113 Ari Dworsky '19
Dominic Serino '19
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 1 19 21 20 18 21 19 118 Lucas Haarstad '17
Ryan Bohara '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 5 21 20 19 19 20 21 120 Ryne Ryshavy '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 1202021212222
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 2181819192020
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 3161617171818
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 4242425252626
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 5252526262727
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs232324242525
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 1282829293030
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 2303031313232
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 3313132323333
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity191920202121
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 1333334343535
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 2222223232424
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 3171718181919
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity262627272828
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 1363616161717
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 2323233333434
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 3343435353636
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity353536361616
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue 1272728282929
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue 2212122222323
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears292930303131
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 1 Lucas Haarstad '17 Ryan Bohara '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 2 Dane Pedersen '15 Michael Donadio '17
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 4 Jordan Leines '15 Max Penner '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 5 Ryne Ryshavy '17
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs Thor Hsu '15 [1-4]
Nick Kuehn '15 [5-6]		 Nick Kuehn '15 [1-4]
Thor Hsu '15 [5-6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 Graham Ness '19 Stratford Vandlik '18
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 Greg Moore '15 Dan Callister '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 Carl Eaton '17 Mike Johnson '17
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity Toby Sullivan '19 [1-3]
Josh Sullivan '16 [4-6]		 Josh Sullivan '16 [1-3]
Toby Sullivan '19 [4-6]
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 Ari Dworsky '19 Dominic Serino '19
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 Samuel Bartel '18 Erich Pinske '18
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 3 Solomon Dworsky '17 Erik Sundberg '17
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity Aj Adducci '15 Jack Wall '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 Simon Rothman '17 Lauritz (Lolo) Young-Walser '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 Jason Davis '17 Lachlan Anders-Macleod '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 3 Michael Stone '15 Luc Mainguy '15
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity Tate Nolte '16 Tighe Case '18
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 1 Jackson Connell '17 Wiley Hunt '19
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 2 Charlie Hicks '16 Alex Honke '16
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears Ethan Staruck '19 Charlie Wagner '16

Conditions — 05/23/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 28%  ·  Pressure 1027.0 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity28% Pressure1027.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.43 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →