| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 1 | 0–0 |
| 2 | |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 2 | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Wayzata High School | Blue | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Benilde St Margarets | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Chanhassen High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 756 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.424 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 4.83 | 6.48 | 8–2 | 6.0 | +1.66 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 4 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | 3.98 | 4.39 | 5–5 | 4.4 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 5 | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 2.90 | 3.15 | 3–7 | 2.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 3 | Wayzata High School Blue | 5.33 | 4.76 | 6–4 | 6.8 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 6.57 | 5.91 | 8–2 | 8.6 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 6 | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 2.05 | -0.95 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mckee | Minnetonka High School | 1.41 | 3.07 | 8–2 | 6.0 | +1.66 | 1.8 | 12% |
| Conrad (Cort) Vandlik | Minnetonka High School | 1.70 | 3.36 | 8–2 | 6.0 | +1.66 | 1.8 | 12% |
| Austin Haag | Minnetonka High School | 1.32 | 2.98 | 8–2 | 6.0 | +1.66 | 1.8 | 12% |
| Jason Davis | Southwest Senior High School | 1.65 | 2.06 | 5–5 | 4.4 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Luc Mainguy | Southwest Senior High School | 0.70 | 1.11 | 5–5 | 4.4 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Carolina Jimenez | Benilde St Margarets | 0.99 | 1.24 | 3–7 | 2.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Joey Simpson | Benilde St Margarets | 0.89 | 1.15 | 3–7 | 2.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Charlie Hicks | Wayzata High School | 1.86 | 1.29 | 6–4 | 6.8 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Alex Honke | Wayzata High School | 1.20 | 0.63 | 6–4 | 6.8 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Belle Loosbrock | Minnetonka High School | 2.50 | 1.83 | 8–2 | 8.6 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Lily Loosbrock | Minnetonka High School | 1.41 | 0.74 | 8–2 | 8.6 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Ryan Bohara | Chanhassen High School | -0.02 | -3.02 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Jordan Leines | Chanhassen High School | 0.15 | -2.85 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 64% | |
| 1 | 2 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 88% | |
| 1 | 3 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Wayzata High School Blue | 73% | |
| 1 | 4 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | 64% | |
| 1 | 5 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 95% | |
| 1 | 6 | Wayzata High School Blue | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 93% | |
| 1 | 7 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 81% | |
| 1 | 8 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 82% | |
| 1 | 9 | Wayzata High School Blue | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 86% | |
| 1 | 10 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 97% | |
| 1 | 11 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 84% | |
| 1 | 12 | Wayzata High School Blue | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | 74% | |
| 1 | 13 | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 68% | |
| 1 | 14 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | 88% | |
| 1 | 15 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Wayzata High School Blue | 41% | upset |
| 2 | 16 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 69% | |
| 2 | 17 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 90% | |
| 2 | 18 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Wayzata High School Blue | 73% | |
| 2 | 19 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | 67% | |
| 2 | 20 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 95% | |
| 2 | 21 | Wayzata High School Blue | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 93% | |
| 2 | 22 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 22% | upset |
| 2 | 23 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 82% | |
| 2 | 24 | Wayzata High School Blue | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | 86% | |
| 2 | 25 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 97% | |
| 2 | 26 | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 15% | upset |
| 2 | 27 | Wayzata High School Blue | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | 74% | |
| 2 | 28 | Benilde St Margarets Varsity | Chanhassen High School Varsity | 66% | |
| 2 | 29 | Southwest Senior High School Varsity | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 12% | upset |
| 2 | 30 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | Wayzata High School Blue | 43% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Skippers 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Blue | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Blue | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DSQ |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Blue | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Skippers 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Blue | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Varsity | ||
| 29 | |
Varsity | def. | |
Skippers 1 | ||
| 30 | |
Skippers 2 | def. | |
Blue | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 1 | Belle Loosbrock '15 Jack Bitney '15 Lily Loosbrock '17 |
Kendall Vanhorne '15 Ashley Huynh '15 Ally Frank '16 |
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 2 | Alec Mckee '15 Austin Haag '16 Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 |
India Nelson '16 Jamie Bongard '15 Berette Mcnaught '16 |
|
Wayzata High School | Blue | Alex Honke '16 Charlie Hicks '16 Jackson Connell '17 |
Anna Brew '17 Brianna Misk '17 Mckenna Miller '16 |
|
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | Jason Davis '17 Luc Mainguy '15 Michael Stone '15 |
Lochlan Anders-Macleod '17 Kaj Anders-Macleod '15 Susie Voltz '15 |
|
Benilde St Margarets | Varsity | Carolina Jimenez '17 Joey Simpson '17 Maggie Houtz '15 |
Liam Long '17 Caroline Murphy '18 Adrienne Williams '15 Erin Patton '17 Tim Zaccaro '15 |
|
Chanhassen High School | Varsity | Dane Pedersen '15 Jordan Leines '15 Ryan Bohara '18 |
Angela Peterson '15 Harry Penner '17 Michael Donadio '17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
