Minnetonka High School '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–17 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 26–8 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 7–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 13–6 against 12.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 1.31 | 0.53 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.78 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.26 | 1.74 | 12–4 | 10.9 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA West Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| LMSS Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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