National Invitational Tournament

HostMIT/Manchester-Essex RHS
Date05/24/2014
TypeNational Invitational
BoatCFJ/Firefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	12–4
2	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	11–5
3	Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	11–5
4	Milton Academy	Mustangs	10–6
5	Christchurch School	Seahorses	9–7
6	Antilles School	Hurricanes	9–8
7	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	7–9
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	5–11
9	Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons	4–13
10	Mercy High School	Monarch Knights	3–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 120 team race matches sailed before 2014-05-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 81 matches (53%) with a log-loss of 3.224 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	4	222.39	Malcolm Lamphere / Maxwell Joyce Thomas Balk / Carter Kenehan William Curtiss / Brittney Manning	60%	12–4 (75%)	+2.3
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	10	204.80	Logan Russell / Sarah Noyes Chase Cooper / Meaghan Macrae 10–2 Tucker Hersam / Caroline Bracken 10–2 India Johnstone / Meaghan Macrae 1–3 Tucker Hersam / Kendolyn Roe 1–1 Chase Cooper / Kendolyn Roe 0–2	12%	11–5 (69%)	+9.2
3	Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	5	221.86 home +0.45	Cam Holley / Emily Arntsen Quinn Andersen / Ethan Andersen Luke Andersen / Gillian Winn	56%	11–5 (69%)	+2.0
4	Milton Academy Mustangs	2	223.43	Henry Burnes / Alexandra Barron Luke Monnich / Jamie Fox Nicholas Giovanni / Amelia Carlson	67%	10–6 (62%)	−0.8
5	Christchurch School Seahorses	3	222.60	Hector Guzman / Heidi Ruse Graham Shivers / Annabell Carrington Alex Moreno / Claire Rae	61%	9–7 (56%)	−0.7
6	Antilles School Hurricanes	1	228.19	Nicholas Gartner / Graceann Nicolosi Colin Brego / Amanda Engeman Thomas Walden / Isabelle Austin-Greene	84%	9–8 (53%)	−5.2
7	Minnetonka High School Skippers	9	202.43	Jack Bitney / Brooke Hensley Alec Mckee / Rachel Price Belle Loosbrock / George Usmanov 3–8 Belle Loosbrock / Kendall Vanhorne 4–1	13%	7–9 (44%)	+4.9
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders	7	220.48	Eli Hanscka / Ellie Reagan Rasmus Sayre / Anna Flaherty Charlie Morano / Zana Van Rooyan	46%	5–11 (31%)	−2.4
9	Oconomowoc High School Raccoons	8	227.09	Parker Trepton / Parker Girard Joel Wall / Margaret Finco Carolyn Keck / Hannah Girard	44%	4–13 (24%)	−3.5
10	Mercy High School Monarch Knights	6	220.67	John Robert Lawless / Timothy Reyda Peter Macmillan / Brian Baker Bridget Lawless / Hunter Skinner	55%	3–13 (19%)	−5.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Minnetonka High School	202.43	208.43	7–9	2.1	+6.00	28.6	<1%
2	Tabor Academy	204.80	210.80	11–5	1.8	+6.00	53.6	<1%
1	Lake Forest High School	222.39	223.96	12–4	9.7	+1.57	1.9	11%
3	Manchester/Essex RHS	221.86	223.04	11–5	9.0	+1.19	1.3	16%
5	Christchurch School	222.60	222.23	9–7	9.7	−0.37	0.1	79%
4	Milton Academy	223.43	222.90	10–6	10.7	−0.52	0.2	84%
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS	220.48	218.53	5–11	7.4	−1.95	2.2	98%
6	Antilles School	228.19	223.24	9–8	14.3	−4.95	12.1	>99%
10	Mercy High School	220.67	214.67	3–13	8.7	−6.00	25.1	>99%
9	Oconomowoc High School	227.09	221.09	4–13	7.6	−6.00	6.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Belle Loosbrock	Minnetonka High School	2.68	8.68	7–9	2.1	+6.00	28.6	<1%
Alec Mckee	Minnetonka High School	0.70	6.70	7–9	2.1	+6.00	28.6	<1%
Chase Cooper	Tabor Academy	43.35	49.35	10–4	1.3	+6.00	52.7	<1%
Alex Moreno	Christchurch School	1.63	1.26	9–7	9.7	−0.37	0.1	79%
Nicholas Giovanni	Milton Academy	2.10	1.57	10–6	10.7	−0.52	0.2	84%
Eli Hanscka	Marthas Vineyard RHS	0.70	-1.26	5–11	7.4	−1.95	2.2	98%
Rasmus Sayre	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.47	-0.49	5–11	7.4	−1.95	2.2	98%
Charlie Morano	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.25	-0.70	5–11	7.4	−1.95	2.2	98%
John Robert Lawless	Mercy High School	1.18	-4.82	3–13	8.7	−6.00	25.1	>99%
Peter Macmillan	Mercy High School	1.12	-4.88	3–13	8.7	−6.00	25.1	>99%
Joel Wall	Oconomowoc High School	0.70	-5.30	4–13	7.6	−6.00	6.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Antilles School	Christchurch School	40%	upset
1	2	Milton Academy	Mercy High School	90%
1	3	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Lake Forest High School	18%	upset
1	4	Minnetonka High School	Tabor Academy	46%	upset
1	5	Manchester/Essex RHS	Antilles School	0%	upset
1	6	Oconomowoc High School	Mercy High School	0%	upset
1	7	Christchurch School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	84%
1	8	Milton Academy	Tabor Academy	74%
1	9	Lake Forest High School	Manchester/Essex RHS	60%
1	10	Minnetonka High School	Oconomowoc High School	67%
1	11	Antilles School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	78%
1	12	Tabor Academy	Mercy High School	0%	upset
1	13	Christchurch School	Manchester/Essex RHS	64%
1	14	Milton Academy	Oconomowoc High School	87%
1	15	Antilles School	Lake Forest High School	100%
1	16	Minnetonka High School	Mercy High School	0%	upset
1	17	Manchester/Essex RHS	Marthas Vineyard RHS	74%
1	18	Tabor Academy	Oconomowoc High School	0%	upset
1	19	Christchurch School	Lake Forest High School	54%
1	20	Milton Academy	Minnetonka High School	100%
1	21	Antilles School	Mercy High School	75%
1	22	Tabor Academy	Manchester/Essex RHS	0%	upset
1	23	Oconomowoc High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	60%
1	24	Lake Forest High School	Minnetonka High School	100%
1	25	Christchurch School	Milton Academy	34%	upset
1	26	Tabor Academy	Antilles School	0%	upset
1	27	Manchester/Essex RHS	Mercy High School	72%
1	28	Lake Forest High School	Oconomowoc High School	75%
1	29	Minnetonka High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	0%	upset
1	30	Tabor Academy	Christchurch School	98%
1	31	Milton Academy	Antilles School	0%	upset
1	32	Manchester/Essex RHS	Oconomowoc High School	66%
1	33	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Mercy High School	46%	upset
1	34	Christchurch School	Minnetonka High School	100%
1	35	Lake Forest High School	Milton Academy	31%	upset
1	36	Antilles School	Oconomowoc High School	70%
1	37	Tabor Academy	Marthas Vineyard RHS	0%	upset
1	38	Manchester/Essex RHS	Minnetonka High School	100%
1	39	Lake Forest High School	Mercy High School	79%
1	40	Christchurch School	Oconomowoc High School	0%	upset
1	41	Milton Academy	Marthas Vineyard RHS	0%	upset
1	42	Minnetonka High School	Antilles School	0%	upset
1	43	Lake Forest High School	Tabor Academy	100%
1	44	Christchurch School	Mercy High School	82%
1	45	Manchester/Essex RHS	Milton Academy	23%	upset
2	46	Christchurch School	Antilles School	60%
2	47	Mercy High School	Milton Academy	10%	upset
2	48	Lake Forest High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	82%
2	49	Tabor Academy	Minnetonka High School	0%	upset
2	50	Antilles School	Manchester/Essex RHS	100%
2	51	Mercy High School	Oconomowoc High School	100%
2	52	Christchurch School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	84%
2	53	Milton Academy	Tabor Academy	100%
2	54	Manchester/Essex RHS	Lake Forest High School	40%	upset
2	55	Minnetonka High School	Oconomowoc High School	0%	upset
2	56	Antilles School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	78%
2	57	Tabor Academy	Mercy High School	0%	upset
2	58	Manchester/Essex RHS	Christchurch School	36%	upset
2	59	Oconomowoc High School	Milton Academy	13%	upset
2	60	Lake Forest High School	Antilles School	0%	upset
2	61	Mercy High School	Minnetonka High School	100%
2	62	Manchester/Essex RHS	Marthas Vineyard RHS	74%
2	63	Tabor Academy	Oconomowoc High School	0%	upset
2	64	Lake Forest High School	Christchurch School	46%	upset
2	65	Milton Academy	Minnetonka High School	100%
2	66	Antilles School	Mercy High School	75%
2	67	Tabor Academy	Manchester/Essex RHS	0%	upset
2	68	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Oconomowoc High School	40%	upset
2	69	Lake Forest High School	Minnetonka High School	100%
2	70	Milton Academy	Christchurch School	66%
2	71	Antilles School	Tabor Academy	100%
2	72	Manchester/Essex RHS	Mercy High School	72%
2	73	Lake Forest High School	Oconomowoc High School	75%
2	74	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Minnetonka High School	100%
2	75	Tabor Academy	Christchurch School	6%	upset
2	76	Milton Academy	Antilles School	1%	upset
2	77	Manchester/Essex RHS	Oconomowoc High School	66%
2	78	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Mercy High School	46%	upset
2	79	Minnetonka High School	Christchurch School	0%	upset
2	80	Lake Forest High School	Milton Academy	31%	upset
2	81	Oconomowoc High School	Antilles School	30%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Seahorses	4-5-6
2	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Monarch Knights	3-4-5
3	Islanders	1-2-4	def.	Scouts	3-5-6
4	Skippers	1-4-5	def.	Seawolves	2-3-6
5	Hornets	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
6	Raccoons	1-2-4	def.	Monarch Knights	3-5-6
7	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
8	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Seawolves	2-3-6
9	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Hornets	3-4-5
10	Skippers	1-2-5	def.	Raccoons	3-4-6
11	Hurricanes	1-3-4	def.	Islanders	2-5-6
12	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Monarch Knights	1-5-6
13	Seahorses	1-3-4	def.	Hornets	2-5-6
14	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Raccoons	4-5-6
15	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Scouts	3-5-6
16	Skippers	1-3-4	def.	Monarch Knights	2-5-6
17	Hornets	1-2-4	def.	Islanders	3-5-6
18	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Raccoons	1-5-6
19	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Scouts	3-5-6
20	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Skippers	2-3-6
21	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Monarch Knights	3-4-5
22	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Hornets	3-4-5
23	Raccoons	1-2-4	def.	Islanders	3-5-6
24	Scouts	2-3-5	def.	Skippers	1-4-6
25	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
26	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-4-6
27	Hornets	1-2-4	def.	Monarch Knights	3-5-6
28	Scouts	1-4-5	def.	Raccoons	2-3-6
29	Skippers	1-2-5	def.	Islanders	3-4-6
30	Seawolves	1-3-6	def.	Seahorses	2-4-5
31	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
32	Hornets	1-3-4	def.	Raccoons	2-5-6
33	Islanders	2-3-4	def.	Monarch Knights	1-5-6
34	Seahorses	1-3-5	def.	Skippers	2-4-6
35	Scouts	1-3-6	def.	Mustangs	2-4-5
36	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Raccoons	3-4-5
37	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Islanders	3-4-5
38	Hornets	2-3-4	def.	Skippers	1-5-6
39	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Monarch Knights	4-5-6
40	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Raccoons	3-5-6
41	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Islanders	3-4-6
42	Skippers	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
43	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
44	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Monarch Knights	4-5-6
45	Hornets	3-4-5	def.	Mustangs	1-2-6 DSQ
46	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
47	Monarch Knights	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
48	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Islanders	1-5-6
49	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Skippers	3-5-6
50	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Hornets	1-5-6
51	Monarch Knights	1-2-5	def.	Raccoons	3-4-6
52	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Islanders	3-5-6
53	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
54	Hornets	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
55	Skippers	1-2-6	def.	Raccoons	3-4-5
56	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Islanders	3-4-6
57	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Monarch Knights	4-5-6
58	Hornets	1-3-5	def.	Seahorses	2-4-6
59	Raccoons	1-3-5	def.	Mustangs	2-4-6
60	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6 DSQ,DSQ
61	Monarch Knights	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
62	Hornets	2-3-5	def.	Islanders	1-4-6
63	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Raccoons	3-5-6
64	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Seahorses	1-5-6
65	Mustangs	1-3-4	def.	Skippers	2-5-6
66	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Monarch Knights	3-4-6
67	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Hornets	4-5-6
68	Islanders	2-3-4	def.	Raccoons	1-5-6
69	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
70	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
71	Hurricanes	2-3-5	def.	Seawolves	1-4-6
72	Hornets	1-2-5	def.	Monarch Knights	3-4-6
73	Scouts	1-2-4	def.	Raccoons	3-5-6
74	Islanders	2-3-4	def.	Skippers	1-5-6
75	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
76	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
77	Hornets	1-2-5	def.	Raccoons	3-4-6
78	Islanders	1-2-5	def.	Monarch Knights	3-4-6
79	Skippers	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
80	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
81	Raccoons	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Malcolm Lamphere '14 Thomas Balk '14 William Curtiss '16	Maxwell Joyce '14 Carter Kenehan '15 Brittney Manning '14
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Chase Cooper '17 India Johnstone '14 Logan Russell '15 Tucker Hersam '16	Meaghan Macrae '14 Kendolyn Roe '14 Sarah Noyes '15 Caroline Bracken '15
Manchester/Essex RHS	Hornets	Cam Holley '15 Luke Andersen '14 Quinn Andersen '14	Emily Arntsen '14 Gillian Winn '17 Ethan Andersen '16
Milton Academy	Mustangs	Henry Burnes '17 Luke Monnich '21 Nicholas Giovanni '15	Alexandra Barron '20 Jamie Fox '21 Amelia Carlson '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Alex Moreno '15 Graham Shivers '14 Hector Guzman '16	Claire Rae '16 Annabell Carrington '15 Heidi Ruse '14
Antilles School	Hurricanes	Colin Brego '16 Nicholas Gartner '15 Thomas Walden '16	Amanda Engeman '16 Graceann Nicolosi '16 Isabelle Austin-Greene '15
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	Alec Mckee '15 Belle Loosbrock '15 Jack Bitney '15	Rachel Price '15 Kendall Vanhorne '15 George Usmanov '15 Brooke Hensley '14
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	Charlie Morano '15 Eli Hanscka '15 Rasmus Sayre '15	Zana Van Rooyan '15 Ellie Reagan '15 Anna Flaherty '15
Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons	Carolyn Keck '15 Joel Wall '15 Parker Trepton '14	Hannah Girard '14 Margaret Finco '15 Parker Girard '16
Mercy High School	Monarch Knights	Bridget Lawless '17 John Robert Lawless '15 Peter Macmillan '15	Hunter Skinner '16 Timothy Reyda '15 Brian Baker '15

Conditions — 05/24/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 82% · Pressure 1017.0 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 7.1 kn

Gusts to 18.9 kn

From ENE (65°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1017.0 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT/Manchester-Essex RHS — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT/Manchester-Essex RHS in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT/Manchester-Essex RHS by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at MIT/Manchester-Essex RHS: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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