Marthas Vineyard RHS '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23 (fleet 1.98) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–20 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 15–9 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 5–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 15–9 against 11.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 1.77 | 3.60 | 8–2 | 5.2 | +1.83 | 2.7 | 6% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | skipper | 1.70 | 2.04 | 7–7 | 6.2 | +0.35 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 0.83 |
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.0 | 0.37 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | B | 20 | 9.6 | 1.01 |
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 0.78 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier at Tabor | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.8 | 1.70 |
| NESSA Championship / O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | -0.75 |
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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