NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy

HostBarnstable HS
Date05/16/2015
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. George's School	Dragons	17–3
2	Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	12–8
3	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	10–10
4	Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	8–12
5	Brunswick School	Bruins	7–7
6	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	7–7
7	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	7–7
8	Duxbury High School	Dragons	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,028 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 56 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.568 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.15 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. George's School Dragons	1	8.29 school +0.54	Will Logue / Oliver Parsons 2.92 Truckie Greenhouse / Caroline Macaulay Matt Logue / Drew Bailey	80%	14–2 (88%)	+1.2
2	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	6	6.29	Andrew Sheerin / Grace Benzal Derek Poon Tip / Sydney Welch Bailey Carter / Kelly Shea	38%	9–7 (56%)	+2.9
3	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	4	6.62	Russell Clarida / Paige Roepers Christina Klingler / Jack Chrysler Nicholas Stefanoni / George Sidamon-Eristoff 3–7 Tommy Whittemore / Ken Ito 7–3	52%	10–10 (50%)	−0.3
4	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	7	5.03 school −0.24	Carter Pemberton / Morgan Farber 2.36 Cj Mckenna / Nellie Stidham John Wetzel / Tom Ma	33%	5–3 (62%)	+2.4
5	Brunswick School Bruins	3	7.05	Peter Pillari / Leyton Borcherding 10–14 Jack Parkin / Leyton Borcherding	58%	5–7 (42%)	−2.0
6	Tabor Academy Seawolves	2	7.36 school +0.15	Logan Russell / Sarah Noyes 2.11 Parker Loftus / Caroline Bracken Chase Cooper / Ned Mitchell 2.15	64%	6–6 (50%)	−1.7
7	Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders	5	6.14 school +0.18	Raz Sayre / Adam Bilodeau Eli Hanschka / Zana Van Rooyen Charlie Morano / Ellie Reagan 1.70	44%	7–7 (50%)	+0.8
8	Duxbury High School Dragons	8	5.02	Jan Kite-Powell / Sarah Caso Chris Colbeth / Meg Sarles Nathan Ikeda / Gretchen Mccarthy 0–8 Nathan Ikeda / Caitlyn Sarles 0–6	24%	0–14 (0%)	−3.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Cape Cod Academy	5.03	6.71	5–3	2.6	+1.68	2.3	7%
2	Portsmouth Abbey School	6.29	7.38	9–7	6.1	+1.09	1.8	9%
1	St. George's School	8.29	9.04	14–2	12.8	+0.75	0.5	34%
7	Marthas Vineyard RHS	6.14	6.49	7–7	6.2	+0.35	0.2	43%
3	The Hotchkiss School	6.62	6.51	10–10	10.3	−0.11	0.0	66%
6	Tabor Academy	7.36	6.50	6–6	7.7	−0.85	0.8	92%
5	Brunswick School	7.05	6.08	5–7	7.0	−0.97	1.1	94%
8	Duxbury High School	5.02	2.02	0–14	3.3	≤−3.00	5.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Andrew Sheerin	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.90	2.98	9–7	6.1	+1.09	1.8	9%
Bailey Carter	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.80	2.89	9–7	6.1	+1.09	1.8	9%
Will Logue	St. George's School	2.92	3.67	14–2	12.8	+0.75	0.5	34%
Truckie Greenhouse	St. George's School	2.21	2.97	14–2	12.8	+0.75	0.5	34%
Tommy Whittemore	The Hotchkiss School	1.91	2.58	7–3	5.9	+0.67	0.4	35%
Raz Sayre	Marthas Vineyard RHS	2.10	2.45	7–7	6.2	+0.35	0.2	43%
Eli Hanschka	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.72	2.07	7–7	6.2	+0.35	0.2	43%
Charlie Morano	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.70	2.04	7–7	6.2	+0.35	0.2	43%
Christina Klingler	The Hotchkiss School	1.85	1.74	10–10	10.3	−0.11	0.0	66%
Chase Cooper	Tabor Academy	2.15	1.29	6–6	7.7	−0.85	0.8	92%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tabor Academy	Portsmouth Abbey School	76%
1	2	Brunswick School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	59%
1	3	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	82%
1	4	Cape Cod Academy	Duxbury High School	54%
1	5	Portsmouth Abbey School	Brunswick School	35%	upset
1	6	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	65%
1	7	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Duxbury High School	71%
1	8	Cape Cod Academy	The Hotchkiss School	28%	upset
1	9	St. George's School	Brunswick School	72%
1	10	Portsmouth Abbey School	Duxbury High School	71%
1	11	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	69%
1	12	Cape Cod Academy	Marthas Vineyard RHS	31%	upset
1	13	St. George's School	Duxbury High School	92%
1	14	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	61%
1	15	Portsmouth Abbey School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	52%
1	17	The Hotchkiss School	Duxbury High School	79%
1	18	Marthas Vineyard RHS	St. George's School	16%	upset
1	19	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	55%
1	21	The Hotchkiss School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	59%
1	22	Tabor Academy	Duxbury High School	87%
1	23	St. George's School	Portsmouth Abbey School	83%
1	25	Tabor Academy	Marthas Vineyard RHS	72%
1	26	The Hotchkiss School	Portsmouth Abbey School	58%
1	27	Brunswick School	Duxbury High School	84%
2	29	Portsmouth Abbey School	Tabor Academy	30%	upset
2	30	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Brunswick School	32%	upset
2	31	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	80%
2	32	Cape Cod Academy	Duxbury High School	48%	upset
2	33	Portsmouth Abbey School	Brunswick School	33%	upset
2	34	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	67%
2	35	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Duxbury High School	70%
2	36	Cape Cod Academy	The Hotchkiss School	24%	upset
2	37	St. George's School	Brunswick School	70%
2	38	Portsmouth Abbey School	Duxbury High School	71%
2	39	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	34%	upset
2	40	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Cape Cod Academy	71%
2	41	St. George's School	Duxbury High School	92%
2	42	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	40%	upset
2	43	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Portsmouth Abbey School	48%	upset
2	45	The Hotchkiss School	Duxbury High School	78%
2	46	St. George's School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	84%
2	47	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	48%	upset
2	49	The Hotchkiss School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	60%
2	50	Tabor Academy	Duxbury High School	85%
2	51	Portsmouth Abbey School	St. George's School	18%	upset
2	53	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Tabor Academy	29%	upset
2	54	Portsmouth Abbey School	The Hotchkiss School	42%	upset
2	55	Brunswick School	Duxbury High School	84%
3	58	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	80%
3	59	The Hotchkiss School	Portsmouth Abbey School	58%
3	61	The Hotchkiss School	Cape Cod Academy	77%
3	62	St. George's School	Portsmouth Abbey School	82%
4	64	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	79%
4	65	Portsmouth Abbey School	The Hotchkiss School	42%	upset
4	67	The Hotchkiss School	Cape Cod Academy	77%
4	68	St. George's School	Portsmouth Abbey School	82%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Ravens	3-4-6
2	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Islanders	3-4-5
3	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
4	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
5	Ravens	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
6	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
7	Islanders	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
8	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
9	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
10	Ravens	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
11	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
12	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Islanders	2-5-6
13	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
14	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
15	Ravens	2-3-5	def.	Islanders	1-4-6
16	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Seawolves	2-5-6
17	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
18	Islanders	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
19	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
20	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Ravens	1-4-6
21	Bearcats	1-3-4	def.	Islanders	2-5-6
22	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
23	Dragons	2-3-5	def.	Ravens	1-4-6
24	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
25	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Islanders	2-4-6
26	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Ravens	3-5-6
27	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
28	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
29	Ravens	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
30	Islanders	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
31	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Bearcats	2-5-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
33	Ravens	1-3-5	def.	Bruins	2-4-6
34	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
35	Islanders	1-4-5	def.	Dragons	2-3-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
37	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
38	Ravens	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6
39	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
40	Islanders	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
41	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
42	Bearcats	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
43	Islanders	2-3-4	def.	Ravens	1-5-6
44	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
45	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
46	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Islanders	3-4-5
47	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
48	Ravens	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
49	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Islanders	3-4-6
50	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
51	Ravens	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
52	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
53	Islanders	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
54	Ravens	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
55	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
57	Ravens	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
58	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
59	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Ravens	1-5-6
60	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
61	Bearcats	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
62	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Ravens	3-4-6
63	Ravens	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
64	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
65	Ravens	1-3-5	def.	Bearcats	2-4-6
66	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
67	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
68	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Ravens	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. George's School	Dragons	Matt Logue '18 Truckie Greenhouse '17 Will Logue '16	Drew Bailey '17 Caroline Macaulay '16 Oliver Parsons '17
Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	Andrew Sheerin '15 Bailey Carter '15 Derek Poon Tip '15	Grace Benzal '17 Kelly Shea '16 Sydney Welch '16
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Christina Klingler '16 Nicholas Stefanoni '17 Russell Clarida '15 Tommy Whittemore '18	Jack Chrysler '16 George Sidamon-Eristoff '17 Paige Roepers '16 Ken Ito '16
Cape Cod Academy	Seahawks	Carter Pemberton '16 Cj Mckenna '18 John Wetzel '16	Morgan Farber '16 Nellie Stidham '17 Tom Ma '17
Brunswick School	Bruins	Jack Parkin '17 Peter Pillari '17	Leyton Borcherding '21
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Chase Cooper '17 Logan Russell '15 Parker Loftus '16	Ned Mitchell '15 Sarah Noyes '15 Caroline Bracken '15
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	Charlie Morano '15 Eli Hanschka '15 Raz Sayre '15	Ellie Reagan '15 Zana Van Rooyen '15 Adam Bilodeau '16
Duxbury High School	Dragons	Chris Colbeth '15 Jan Kite-Powell '15 Nathan Ikeda '17	Meg Sarles '15 Sarah Caso '15 Gretchen Mccarthy '16 Caitlyn Sarles '16

Conditions — 05/16/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 82% · Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.1 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1022.8 hPa Rain0.10 in

What this breeze does at Barnstable HS — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Barnstable HS in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Barnstable HS by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Barnstable HS: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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