Tabor Academy '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 3.23) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 60–38 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 15–15 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 20–10 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 15–9 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (84 matches) the record is 50–34 against 49.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.38 | 2.63 | 11–9 | 10.2 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 44% |
| 2017-04-29 | Seawolf Invite | skipper | 2.39 | 1.11 | 4–6 | 6.4 | −1.29 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.68 | 2.34 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.48 | 3.42 | 15–5 | 12.5 | +0.95 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 2.12 | 3.07 | 9–3 | 7.3 | +0.95 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | skipper | 2.15 | 1.29 | 6–6 | 7.7 | −0.85 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Seawolf Invite | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 1.64 |
| NESSA O'Day Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.3 | 2.03 |
| ISSA Fleet Racing Championship (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.4 | 0.88 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.5 | 4.38 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.3 | 2.45 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| Mallory National Championship | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.4 | 1.53 |
| ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 1.78 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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