| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Milton Academy | Mustangs | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,294 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 15 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.591 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.37 ± 0.85: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milton Academy Mustangs | 2 | 6.80 school −0.41 | Elliot Burnes / Peter Barron Henry Burnes / Ben Monnich 2.76 Charles Hibben / Hunter Zonnenberg 2.19 | 55% | 10–0 (100%) | +4.5 |
| 2 | Tabor Academy Seawolves | 1 | 7.11 school +0.11, home +0.18 | Chase Cooper / Kat Mitchell 2.39 Cj Mckenna / Nick Marshall 2.42 Lulu Russell / Michael Collins | 64% | 4–6 (40%) | −2.4 |
| 3 | Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen | 3 | 5.95 school −0.23 | Caleb Robinson / Grace Mooridian 2.34 Audrey Morin / Owen White 1.83 Peter Morrissette / Catherine Carpenter 1.97 | 31% | 1–9 (10%) | −2.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milton Academy | 6.80 | 9.80 | 10–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 7.8 | <1% |
| 2 | Tabor Academy | 7.11 | 5.83 | 4–6 | 6.4 | −1.29 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 3 | Falmouth High School, ME | 5.95 | 4.14 | 1–9 | 3.1 | −1.81 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Burnes | Milton Academy | 2.03 | 5.03 | 10–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 7.8 | <1% |
| Charles Hibben | Milton Academy | 2.19 | 5.19 | 10–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 7.8 | <1% |
| Chase Cooper | Tabor Academy | 2.39 | 1.11 | 4–6 | 6.4 | −1.29 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Audrey Morin | Falmouth High School, ME | 1.83 | 0.02 | 1–9 | 3.1 | −1.81 | 1.9 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tabor Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 70% | |
| 1 | 2 | Milton Academy | Tabor Academy | 41% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Milton Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 64% | |
| 2 | 4 | Tabor Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 71% | |
| 2 | 5 | Milton Academy | Tabor Academy | 43% | upset |
| 2 | 6 | Milton Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 66% | |
| 3 | 7 | Tabor Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 71% | |
| 3 | 8 | Milton Academy | Tabor Academy | 44% | upset |
| 3 | 9 | Milton Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 67% | |
| 4 | 10 | Tabor Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 72% | |
| 4 | 11 | Milton Academy | Tabor Academy | 44% | upset |
| 4 | 12 | Milton Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 67% | |
| 5 | 13 | Falmouth High School, ME | Tabor Academy | 28% | upset |
| 5 | 14 | Milton Academy | Tabor Academy | 45% | upset |
| 5 | 15 | Milton Academy | Falmouth High School, ME | 68% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seawolves | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Mustangs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seawolves | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seawolves | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Mustangs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Milton Academy | Mustangs | Charles Hibben '18 Elliot Burnes '17 Henry Burnes '17 |
Hunter Zonnenberg '18 Peter Barron '17 Ben Monnich '20 |
|
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | Chase Cooper '17 Cj Mckenna '18 Lulu Russell '17 |
Kat Mitchell '17 Nick Marshall '18 Michael Collins '18 |
|
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | Audrey Morin '17 Caleb Robinson '18 Peter Morrissette '18 |
Owen White '18 Grace Mooridian '17 Catherine Carpenter '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
