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O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 39 14 53
2 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 42 25 67
3 St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 34 38 72
4 Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 48 39 87
5 Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 34 54 88
6 Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 31 66 97
7 Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 64 52 116
8 Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 57 61 118
9 Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 49 70 119
10 Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 79 52 131
11 East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers 69 70 139
12 Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 83 94 177
13 Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Warriors 100 93 193
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 8 1 3 4 1 3 9 2 31 Nicholas Karnovsky '15
Sarah Silvestri '15
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 2 5 5 2 6 2 4 8 34 Will Logue '16 [1-8]
Emily Kallfelz '15 [1-2, 5-8]
Oliver Parsons '17 [3-4]
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 7 9 2 3 5 1 1 6 34 Carter Pemberton '16 [1-8]
Meg Wilson '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Nellie Stidham '17 [3-6]
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves DSQ 3 6 1 2 6 6 1 39 Logan Russell '15
Sarah Noyes '15
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 3 4 4 5 8 5 2 11 42 Eli Hanschka '15 [1-2]
Charlie Morano '15 [3-8]
Ellie Reagan '15 [1-2]
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 1 7 10 7 4 9 7 3 48 Andrew Sheerin '15
Grace Benzal '17
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 5 2 1 10 9 4 11 7 49 Nicholas Memoli '16
Emily Wang '17
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 4 6 8 6 10 7 12 4 57 Kevin Gallagher '17
Elizabeth Lonergan '16
Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 10 13 11 8 3 11 3 5 64 Brendan Read '15
Taylor Borges '17
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers 6 12 7 9 7 8 8 12 69 Unregistered Sailors '22
Unregistered Sailors '22
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 9 8 9 12 11 10 10 10 79 Sam Scatchard '16 [1-2, 5-8]
Colin Mcgruer '16 [3-4]
Eliza Rogers '15 [1-2, 5-8]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 11 10 12 11 13 12 5 9 83 Hannah Davis '15
Matthew Marshall '17
Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Warriors 12 11 13 13 12 13 13 13 100 Mackenzie Perry '16
Sabine Galipeau '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 14 Parker Loftus '16
Caroline Bracken '15
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 3 3 1 4 5 3 1 5 25 Raz Sayre '15
Adam Bilodeau '16
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 7 7 2 11 1 2 4 4 38 Matt Logue '18 [1-8]
Drew Bailey '17 [1-2]
George Moss '17 [3-4]
Caroline Macaulay '16 [5-8]
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens 1 11 13 2 4 4 2 2 39 Bailey Carter '15 [1-8]
Kyle Morrissey '15 [1-4]
Sydney Welch '16 [5-8]
Middletown High School Middletown High School Islanders 4 5 7 6 9 10 8 3 52 Rebecca Read '17
Fraser Mackechnie '15
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Radiers 5 2 8 5 7 11 6 8 52 Carter Mitchell '15
Charlotte Garland '15
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 8 10 12 3 3 5 7 6 54 Cj Mckenna '18
Morgan Farber '16
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 9 4 10 7 10 9 5 7 61 Caroline Downey '15 [1-6]
Santiago Hirschmann '18 [7-8]
Maura Lonergan '15 [1-6]
Cece Schneider '16 [7-8]
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 10 12 4 8 8 6 9 9 66 Benjamin Rizika '22 [1-4]
Gabrielle Rizika '22 [5-8]
William Neubauer '22 [1-4]
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers 6 9 6 10 11 8 10 10 70 Unregistered Sailors '22
Unregistered Sailors '22
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 12 6 5 9 6 7 12 13 70 Brad Seferian '15
Piper Wolff '15
Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Warriors 13 8 11 12 13 13 11 12 93 Brendan Felix '15
Alex Cooper '16
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 11 13 9 13 12 12 13 11 94 Zoe Clougher '17
Emma Porter '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Spartans11335577
Brookline HighBrookline High Warriors22446688
Cape Cod AcademyCape Cod Academy Seahawks33557799
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Radiers4466881010
East Greenwich High SchoolEast Greenwich High School Avengers5577991111
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Islanders668810101212
Middletown High SchoolMiddletown High School Islanders779911111313
Nauset Regional High SchoolNauset Regional High School Warriors881010121211
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens991111131322
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings101012121133
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons111113132244
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves1212113355
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School Warriors1313224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Spartans22446688
Brookline HighBrookline High Warriors33557799
Cape Cod AcademyCape Cod Academy Seahawks4466881010
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Radiers5577991111
East Greenwich High SchoolEast Greenwich High School Avengers668810101212
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Islanders779911111313
Middletown High SchoolMiddletown High School Islanders881010121211
Nauset Regional High SchoolNauset Regional High School Warriors991111131322
Portsmouth Abbey SchoolPortsmouth Abbey School Ravens101012121133
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings111113132244
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons1212113355
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves1313224466
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School Warriors11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Kevin Gallagher '17 Elizabeth Lonergan '16
Spartans Caroline Downey '15 [1-6]
Santiago Hirschmann '18 [7-8]		 Maura Lonergan '15 [1-6]
Cece Schneider '16 [7-8]
Brookline High Brookline High Nicholas Karnovsky '15 Sarah Silvestri '15
Warriors Benjamin Rizika '22 [1-4]
Gabrielle Rizika '22 [5-8]		 William Neubauer '22 [1-4]
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Carter Pemberton '16 [1-8] Meg Wilson '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Nellie Stidham '17 [3-6]
Seahawks Cj Mckenna '18 Morgan Farber '16
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Sam Scatchard '16 [1-2, 5-8]
Colin Mcgruer '16 [3-4]		 Eliza Rogers '15 [1-2, 5-8]
Radiers Carter Mitchell '15 Charlotte Garland '15
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Unregistered Sailors '22 Unregistered Sailors '22
Avengers Unregistered Sailors '22 Unregistered Sailors '22
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Eli Hanschka '15 [1-2]
Charlie Morano '15 [3-8]		 Ellie Reagan '15 [1-2]
Islanders Raz Sayre '15 Adam Bilodeau '16
Middletown High School Middletown High School Brendan Read '15 Taylor Borges '17
Islanders Rebecca Read '17 Fraser Mackechnie '15
Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Mackenzie Perry '16 Sabine Galipeau '16
Warriors Brendan Felix '15 Alex Cooper '16
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Andrew Sheerin '15 Grace Benzal '17
Ravens Bailey Carter '15 [1-8] Kyle Morrissey '15 [1-4]
Sydney Welch '16 [5-8]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Hannah Davis '15 Matthew Marshall '17
Vikings Zoe Clougher '17 Emma Porter '18
St. George's School St. George's School Will Logue '16 [1-8] Emily Kallfelz '15 [1-2, 5-8]
Oliver Parsons '17 [3-4]
Dragons Matt Logue '18 [1-8] Drew Bailey '17 [1-2]
George Moss '17 [3-4]
Caroline Macaulay '16 [5-8]
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Logan Russell '15 Sarah Noyes '15
Seawolves Parker Loftus '16 Caroline Bracken '15
Wayland High School Wayland High School Nicholas Memoli '16 Emily Wang '17
Warriors Brad Seferian '15 Piper Wolff '15

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1006.9 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From W (279°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1006.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tabor Academy: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.25 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tabor Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Tabor Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →