Wayland High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.09 (fleet 1.76) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–12 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 3–12 against 4.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-30 | Cheverus Cup | skipper | 1.38 | 2.35 | 3–2 | 2.2 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 39% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | skipper | 1.27 | -1.73 | 0–10 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.0 | -0.22 |
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 1.33 |
| Cheverus Cup | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| 2016 Sharon Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 0.89 |
| NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 1.66 |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman) | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.7 | 1.71 |
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.3 | 0.92 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Nicholas Memoli |  Bentley University |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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