| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Wayland High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Mt. Desert Island HS | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Cheverus High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,892 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 15 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.465 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.26 ± 0.61: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cape Elizabeth High School Capers | 3 | 3.27 | Cooper Siepert / Kim Knauft Tucker Wanzer / Patrick Miller Alec Bodenski / William Gent | 62% | 5–0 (100%) | +1.9 |
| 2 | Yarmouth High School Clippers | 1 | 3.84 | Ethan Merrill / Emi Ruth Teo Scott / Salome Skinner Ben Palmer / Isabella Pardales | 73% | 4–1 (80%) | +0.4 |
| 3 | Wayland High School Varsity | 4 | 2.40 school −0.23 | Nicholas Memoli / Grace Karbowski 1.38 Emily Wang / Marlee Griffin Dylan Radar / Izzy Rubin | 45% | 3–2 (60%) | +0.8 |
| 4 | Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity | 2 | 3.67 | Kincaid Macculloch / Lillian Anderson Christopher Booher / Chloe Vincenty William Ratcliff / Kevin Elk | 71% | 2–3 (40%) | −1.5 |
| 5 | Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME | 6 | 1.14 | No Name / No Name 2–8 No Name / Calob Niles | 22% | 1–4 (20%) | −0.1 |
| 6 | Cheverus High School Varsity | 5 | 1.62 | Andrew Morrissette / Alex Drago Christian Lamontagne / Guggenheim Ana Nichols Brendan / Matthew Proia | 28% | 0–5 (0%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cape Elizabeth High School | 3.27 | 6.27 | 5–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 7% |
| 3 | Wayland High School | 2.40 | 3.37 | 3–2 | 2.2 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 39% |
| 2 | Yarmouth High School | 3.84 | 4.39 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 5 | Unregistered-NESSA | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1–4 | 1.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 4 | Mt. Desert Island HS | 3.67 | 1.75 | 2–3 | 3.5 | −1.92 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 6 | Cheverus High School | 1.62 | -1.38 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Wanzer | Cape Elizabeth High School | 0.79 | 3.79 | 5–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 7% |
| Alec Bodenski | Cape Elizabeth High School | 0.39 | 3.39 | 5–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 7% |
| Dylan Radar | Wayland High School | 0.89 | 1.86 | 3–2 | 2.2 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 39% |
| Teo Scott | Yarmouth High School | 0.79 | 1.34 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.55 | 0.1 | 59% |
| No Name | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.13 | -0.01 | 3–12 | 3.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Kincaid Macculloch | Mt. Desert Island HS | 1.04 | -0.87 | 2–3 | 3.5 | −1.92 | 1.7 | 98% |
| William Ratcliff | Mt. Desert Island HS | 1.08 | -0.83 | 2–3 | 3.5 | −1.92 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Andrew Morrissette | Cheverus High School | 0.24 | -2.76 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Christian Lamontagne | Cheverus High School | 0.21 | -2.79 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Nichols Brendan | Cheverus High School | 0.79 | -2.21 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Yarmouth High School | 39% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Wayland High School | Cheverus High School | 69% | |
| 1 | 3 | Mt. Desert Island HS | Unregistered-NESSA | 91% | |
| 1 | 4 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Cheverus High School | 78% | |
| 1 | 5 | Yarmouth High School | Mt. Desert Island HS | 53% | |
| 1 | 6 | Wayland High School | Unregistered-NESSA | 73% | |
| 1 | 7 | Mt. Desert Island HS | Cheverus High School | 83% | |
| 1 | 8 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Wayland High School | 67% | |
| 1 | 9 | Yarmouth High School | Unregistered-NESSA | 88% | |
| 1 | 10 | Wayland High School | Mt. Desert Island HS | 26% | upset |
| 1 | 11 | Yarmouth High School | Cheverus High School | 85% | |
| 1 | 12 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Unregistered-NESSA | 83% | |
| 1 | 13 | Yarmouth High School | Wayland High School | 77% | |
| 1 | 14 | Cape Elizabeth High School | Mt. Desert Island HS | 42% | upset |
| 1 | 15 | Unregistered-NESSA | Cheverus High School | 43% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Capers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Capers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Clippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Capers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Clippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Clippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Capers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Southern ME | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Clippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Capers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Southern ME | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | Alec Bodenski '19 Cooper Siepert '16 Tucker Wanzer '16 |
William Gent '16 Kim Knauft '19 Patrick Miller '19 |
|
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | Ben Palmer '17 Ethan Merrill '16 Teo Scott '16 |
Isabella Pardales '17 Emi Ruth '18 Salome Skinner '18 |
|
Wayland High School | Varsity | Dylan Radar '18 Emily Wang '17 Nicholas Memoli '16 |
Izzy Rubin '17 Marlee Griffin '18 Grace Karbowski '19 |
|
Mt. Desert Island HS | Varsity | Christopher Booher '16 Kincaid Macculloch '17 William Ratcliff '17 |
Chloe Vincenty '16 Lillian Anderson '17 Kevin Elk '16 |
|
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern ME | No Name '15 | No Name '15 Calob Niles '17 |
|
Cheverus High School | Varsity | Andrew Morrissette '17 Christian Lamontagne '17 Nichols Brendan '16 |
Alex Drago '19 Guggenheim Ana '17 Matthew Proia '16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
