Wayland High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.19 (fleet 0.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 6–18 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 3–2 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 3–2 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 0–14 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 6–18 against 6.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-30 | Linda Juliano Women's TR Trophy | crew | 0.02 | 1.10 | 3–2 | 2.0 | +1.08 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2016-04-30 | Cheverus Cup | crew | 0.89 | 1.86 | 3–2 | 2.2 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 39% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | crew | 1.15 | -1.85 | 0–14 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 3.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| Sharon Invitational | Crew | A | 4 | 10.2 | — |
| Linda Juliano Women's TR Trophy | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Keelboat Kickoff Keelboat | Crew | B | 4 | 13.0 | — |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| Donald Greene Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 19.5 | — |
| Cheverus Cup | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.2 | -0.96 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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