| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Milton Academy | Mustangs | 17–3 |
| 2 |  |
Manchester/Essex RHS | Hornets | 13–7 |
| 3 |  |
North Kingstown High School | Skippers | 11–9 |
| 4 |  |
Dartmouth High School | Indians | 11–9 |
| 5 |  |
Falmouth High School (ME) | Yachtsmen | 6–8 |
| 6 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 6–8 |
| 7 |  |
Bishop Stang High | Spartans | 4–10 |
| 8 |  |
Wayland High School | Warriors | 0–14 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,028 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 68 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.588 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.61 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 15% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dartmouth High School | 3.52 | 5.81 | 11–9 | 4.2 | +2.29 | 9.4 | <1% |
| 1 | Milton Academy | 6.81 | 7.34 | 17–3 | 15.9 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 6 | Greenwich High School | 4.18 | 4.40 | 6–8 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2 | Manchester/Essex RHS | 5.82 | 5.99 | 13–7 | 12.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 3 | North Kingstown High School | 5.81 | 5.33 | 11–9 | 12.5 | −0.48 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 7 | Bishop Stang High | 4.38 | 3.48 | 4–10 | 5.8 | −0.90 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 5 | Falmouth High School (ME) | 5.80 | 4.26 | 6–8 | 9.3 | −1.54 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 8 | Wayland High School | 2.68 | -0.32 | 0–14 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 3.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nat Estes | Dartmouth High School | 1.14 | 3.42 | 11–9 | 4.2 | +2.29 | 9.4 | <1% |
| Meg Costa | Dartmouth High School | 1.15 | 3.44 | 11–9 | 4.2 | +2.29 | 9.4 | <1% |
| Ian Woodcock | Dartmouth High School | 0.53 | 2.81 | 11–9 | 4.2 | +2.29 | 9.4 | <1% |
| Nicholas Giovanni | Milton Academy | 2.09 | 2.63 | 17–3 | 15.9 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Filip Mark | Greenwich High School | 0.83 | 1.05 | 6–8 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 51% |
| James Westerberg | Greenwich High School | 1.66 | 1.88 | 6–8 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Jack Scanlan | Greenwich High School | 1.08 | 1.30 | 6–8 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Will Kiley | Manchester/Essex RHS | 1.52 | 1.70 | 13–7 | 12.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Lucas Martz | Manchester/Essex RHS | 1.00 | 1.18 | 13–7 | 12.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Alex Bowen | North Kingstown High School | 1.96 | 2.11 | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Cameron Rousseau | Falmouth High School (ME) | 1.81 | 0.27 | 6–8 | 9.3 | −1.54 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Audrey Morin | Falmouth High School (ME) | 1.67 | 0.13 | 6–8 | 9.3 | −1.54 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Jack Peebles | Wayland High School | -0.01 | -3.01 | 0–10 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| Dylan Rader | Wayland High School | 0.25 | -2.75 | 0–4 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Sarah Raines | Wayland High School | 0.22 | -2.78 | 0–4 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 DSQ |
| 2 | |
Hornets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Indians | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Mustangs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Indians | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Mustangs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Indians | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hornets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Mustangs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Indians | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mustangs | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Hornets | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Mustangs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Hornets | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Indians | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Skippers | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-3-4 DSQ |
| 31 | |
Indians | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Hornets | 1-2-6 DSQ | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-4-5 DSQ |
| 34 | |
Indians | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Hornets | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Indians | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Indians | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Indians | 1-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 DSQ |
| 48 | |
Mustangs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 1-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 50 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 55 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Indians | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Hornets | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-5 |
| 58 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Indians | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 61 | |
Indians | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 63 | |
Hornets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-6 |
| 64 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-5 |
| 65 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Indians | 2-4-6 |
| 66 | |
Mustangs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-4-6 |
| 67 | |
Hornets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-6 |
| 68 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
