Manchester/Essex RHS '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.39 (fleet 2.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–7 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 13–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 13–7 against 12.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | skipper | 1.52 | 1.70 | 13–7 | 12.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marblehead | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.0 | 1.18 |
| NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.6 | 1.08 |
| Mallory Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.0 | 0.59 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Championship / O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 15.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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