Milton Academy '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.96 (fleet 3.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–12 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 26–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 10–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 26–6 against 23.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 2.44 | 3.02 | 9–3 | 8.0 | +0.59 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | skipper | 2.09 | 2.63 | 17–3 | 15.9 | +0.53 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Essex, CT | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 2.30 |
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.3 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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