Greenwich High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.86 (fleet 3.00) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–26 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 16–11 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 13–7 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (61 matches) the record is 35–26 against 30.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 2.35 | 3.97 | 10–3 | 6.5 | +1.63 | 3.1 | 4% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.18 | 2.26 | 6–8 | 5.8 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.90 | 1.99 | 13–7 | 12.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | skipper | 1.66 | 1.88 | 6–8 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Lakeville, CT | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.1 | 3.29 |
| NESSA O'Day Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.1 | 1.69 |
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 77% | — |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Connecticut State Championships | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.2 | 2.05 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.6 | 1.26 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Sail Black Rock Intersectional | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 0.85 |
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich, CT | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.05 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.7 | -0.90 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Teams - Terk Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.0 | -0.59 |
| Connecticut State Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.8 | 2.22 |
| O'Day Qualifier - Lakeville, CT | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.7 | 2.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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