NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Lakeville, CT

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 31 23 54
2 The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 23 32 55
3 Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 17 39 56
4 Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 41 26 67
5 Brunswick School Brunswick School Bruins 41 43 84
6 Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 46 47 93
7 Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 44 53 97
8 Varsity Varsity Varsity 66 MRP 45 MRP 111 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 1 1 2 1 6 1 4 1 17 James Westerberg '17
Max Anker '20
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 3 3 1 6 1 2 1 6 23 Christopher Lukens '19 [1-4]
Tommy Whittemore '18 [5-8]
Emma Contiguglia '19 [1-4]
Sophie Mason '17 [5-6]
George Sidamon-Eristoff '17 [7-8]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 5 2 4 5 3 3 5 4 31 Juiia Reynolds '17 [1-8]
Tory Miletti '18 [1-6]
Cooper Soderlund '18 [7-8]
Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 4 5 7 4 DSQ 4 3 5 41 Brooks Daley '17
Jenson Peters '17
Brunswick School Brunswick School Bruins 7 8 6 2 4 5 6 3 41 William Michels '21
Leyton Borcherding '21
Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 8 6 5 7 2 6 2 8 44 Nancy Duer '23
Hadley Salem '25
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 2 4 3 8 7 8 7 7 46 Jamie Paul '20
Grant Ballesteros '17
Varsity Varsity Varsity 6 7 8 3 5 7 8 2 66 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 4 6 1 1 4 3 1 3 23 Everett Nash '19
Felix Nizet '19
Darien High School Darien High School Varsity 1 2 2 4 2 8 3 4 26 Ryan Jones '17
Lauren Miller '19
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 6 4 5 7 1 1 6 2 32 John Eastman '20 [1-2]
Briggs Lalor '17 [3-4]
Nicholas Stefanoni '17 [5-8]
Casey Mason '19 [1-2]
Carly Berry '17 [3-4]
George Sidamon-Eristoff '17 [5-6]
Sophie Mason '17 [7-8]
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 5 5 6 3 7 5 2 6 39 Pierce Ornstein '18 [1-4]
Jack Scanlan '17 [5-6]
Max Anker '20 [7-8]
Isabella Arnaboldi '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Jack Childs '19 [5-6]
Brunswick School Brunswick School Bruins 7 7 7 2 8 2 5 5 43 Leyton Borcherding '21 [1-6]
Peter Pillari '17 [7-8]
Leyton Borcherding '21 [1-6]
Varsity Varsity Varsity 3 1 3 6 3 4 4 1 45 MRP
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 2 8 4 5 6 7 7 8 47 Chase Reynolds '20 [1-6]
Christian Haranzo '20 [7-8]
Christian Haranzo '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ronan Flynn '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 8 3 8 8 5 6 8 7 53 Scott Yenor '20
Dilan Patel '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Brunswick SchoolBrunswick School Bruins11223344
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Varsity22334455
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons33445566
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits44556677
Greens Farms AcademyGreens Farms Academy Varsity55667788
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals66778811
VarsityVarsity Varsity77881122
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats88112233

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Brunswick SchoolBrunswick School Bruins55667788
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Varsity66778811
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons77881122
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits88112233
Greens Farms AcademyGreens Farms Academy Varsity11223344
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals22334455
VarsityVarsity Varsity33445566
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats44556677

Conditions — 04/22/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From NNW (342°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine2.6 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1014.1 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at The Hotchkiss School: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Hotchkiss School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at The Hotchkiss School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →