The Hotchkiss School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (fleet 1.95) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–18 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 18–10 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 22–18 against 22.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 1.46 | 1.53 | 11–9 | 10.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2017-04-08 | Falmouth 6X Team Race | skipper | 1.46 | 2.10 | 7–1 | 6.6 | +0.65 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | skipper | 1.28 | 0.75 | 4–8 | 5.0 | −0.52 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Lakeville, CT | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | -0.99 |
| ISSA Fleet Racing Championship (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| Falmouth 6X Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Connecticut State Championship | Crew | B | 3 | 6.3 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Briggs Lalor |  Santa Clara University |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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