O'Day Qualifier - Lakeville, CT

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 28 10 38
2 Darien High School Darien High School Blue Wave 30 31 61
3 Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinal 24 46 70
4 Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 44 31 75
5 Waynflete School Waynflete School Flyers 47 48 95
6 Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 58 40 98
7 St. John Paul II School St. John Paul II School Lions 43 63 106
8 Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 66 67 133
9 Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Gator 65 70 135
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinal 5 3 4 1 2 2 4 2 1 24 James Westerberg '17
Natalie Anibal '15
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 1 6 2 2 1 6 2 3 5 28 Christina Klingler '16
Jack Chrysler '16
Darien High School Darien High School Blue Wave 2 8 3 4 5 1 3 1 3 30 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '15
Emma Janson '15
St. John Paul II School St. John Paul II School Lions 6 2 5 6 6 5 7 4 2 43 Tom Cooper '15
Brian Daley '15
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 3 7 1 5 8 3 6 7 4 44 Nat Estes '15 [1-9]
Lauren Oliveira '15 [1-4]
Catherine Mikkelson '15 [5-9]
Waynflete School Waynflete School Flyers 8 1 6 3 3 8 1 9 8 47 Ellis Heminway '17
Grace Atwood '19
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 4 5 8 8 9 4 9 5 6 58 Annie Spence '16
Maddie Spero '16
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Gator 9 4 9 9 7 9 5 6 7 65 Ashton Borcherding '18 [1-9]
Kathryn Wright '18 [1-2]
Isabel Sorensen '18 [3-4]
Alina Pannone '18 [5-9]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 7 9 7 7 4 7 8 8 9 66 Matthew Sweeney '16
Jim Stacy '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 10 Tommy Whittemore '18
Ken Ito '16
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 4 4 4 3 2 6 5 1 2 31 Meg Costa '16 [1-9]
Jack Kenney '15 [1-4]
Lauren Oliveira '15 [5-9]
Darien High School Darien High School Blue Wave 5 2 2 2 7 2 3 5 3 31 Owen Berringer '15
Christopher Graves '16
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 3 5 3 6 5 3 2 6 7 40 Caden Buckley '15 [1-6]
Joshua Hersey '20 [7-9]
Mikayla Mathieu '18 [1-6]
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinal 2 3 8 7 3 8 7 4 4 46 Filip Mark '15
Pierce Ornstein '18
Waynflete School Waynflete School Flyers 7 OCS 5 4 4 4 6 3 5 48 Gabrielle Nuki '16
Kelley Frumer '17
St. John Paul II School St. John Paul II School Lions 6 7 7 8 8 7 4 7 9 63 Max Skogstrom '15
Griffin Horgan '16
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 9 8 6 5 6 9 8 8 8 67 Ben Quincy '17 [1-9]
Ronan Flynn '18 [1-4, 7-9]
Charlie Capporino '24 [5-6]
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Gator 8 6 9 9 9 5 9 9 6 70 Emma Cannon '18 [1-4]
Jennifer Lobello '15 [5-9]
Jennifer Lobello '15 [1-4]
Ever Lasley '18 [5-6]
Emma Cannon '18 [7-9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Raiders113355779
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Blue Wave224466881
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians335577992
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits446688113
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinal668811335
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Gator557799224
St. John Paul II SchoolSt. John Paul II School Lions779922446
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats881133557
Waynflete SchoolWaynflete School Flyers992244668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Raiders224466881
Darien High SchoolDarien High School Blue Wave335577992
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians446688113
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits557799224
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinal779922446
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Gator668811335
St. John Paul II SchoolSt. John Paul II School Lions881133557
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats992244668
Waynflete SchoolWaynflete School Flyers113355779

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1008.9 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From NW (317°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1008.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Hotchkiss School: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Hotchkiss School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at The Hotchkiss School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →