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Keelboat Kickoff

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 1 10 9 19
2 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 15 10 25
3 Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 11 27 38
4 Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 2 37 16 53
5 Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 1 41 26 67
6 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 43 27 70
7 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 24 47 71
8 Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 2 39 33 72
9 Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Falcons 33 43 76
10 Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue 2 41 39 80
11 Natick High School Natick High School Natick 30 59 89
12 Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 3 53 45 98
13 Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 50 52 102
14 Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 1 40 62 MRP 102 MRP
15 Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 3 55 61 116
16 Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 2 50 MRP 71 MRP 121 MRP
17 Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue 1 62 65 127
18 Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 91 MRP 52 MRP 143 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 1 3 1 1 5 10
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 1 3 3 4 11
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 2 5 2 6 15
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 6 2 7 9 24
Natick High School Natick High School Natick 11 10 8 1 30
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Falcons 10 9 4 10 33
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 2 4 6 12 15 37
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 2 13 8 5 13 39
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 1 8 4 17 11 40
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 1 9 14 11 7 41
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue 2 14 16 9 2 41
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 16 13 6 8 43
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 5 11 15 DSQ 50
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 2 7 7 13 3 50 MRP
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 3 15 12 10 16 53
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 3 12 15 14 14 55
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue 1 17 17 16 12 62
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 18 18 18 17 91 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 1 2 3 3 1 9
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 1 1 2 1 6 10
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 2 3 1 2 10 16
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 1 7 5 9 5 26
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Wolfpack 5 6 4 12 27
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 2 9 4 6 8 27
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 2 4 8 8 13 33
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue 2 6 13 11 9 39
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Falcons 17 17 7 2 43
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 3 14 18 10 3 45
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 13 11 12 11 47
Brookline High Brookline High Warriors 8 7 13 4 52 MRP
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 11 9 14 18 52
Natick High School Natick High School Natick 15 12 17 15 59
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 3 12 16 16 17 61
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 1 10 10 15 7 62 MRP
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue 1 16 15 18 16 65
Hingham High School Hingham High School Harbormen 2 18 14 5 14 71 MRP
School Team Sailors
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Div A Wolfpack SkipperWill Sargent '17
CrewLivia Kelly '17
CrewSam Lowery '18
Brookline High Brookline High Div A Warriors SkipperNo show
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Div A Falcons SkipperMax Katz-Christy '22
CrewRobie Scola '22
CrewSoren Barclay '19 [1-2]
CrewCharlotte Williams '17 [3-4]
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div A Harbormen 1 SkipperPeter Durkin '17 [1-2]
Crewrobbi briggs '22
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div A Harbormen 2 SkipperNo show
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Div A Warriors 1 SkipperJulia Wyatt '17
CrewMasha Filatov '18
CrewDaniel Guzi '19
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Div A Warriors 2 SkipperNate Borovick '17
CrewConner Simmons '18
CrewGabby Jones '20
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Div A Warriors 3 SkipperDaniel Guzi '19
CrewKelly Durning '20
CrewKrishna Ramani '20
Natick High School Natick High School Div A Natick SkipperTownsend Morey '17
CrewOwen Clifford '22
CrewConnor Spurling '19
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div A Eagles 1 SkipperJack Eberhardt '17
CrewLynn Fu '18
CrewMiguel VonFedak '19
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div A Eagles 2 SkipperGautam Goel '17
CrewIshaan Shah '19
CrewMichael Holtzman '19
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Div A Big Blue 1 SkipperLiad Zafrani '18
CrewLauren Kersten '19
CrewRiley Wurzel '20
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Div A Big Blue 2 SkipperNo show
CrewHarris Havlicek '20
CrewAnna Levenberg '20
Wayland High School Wayland High School Div A Warriors SkipperEmily Wang '17
CrewGrace Karbowski '19
CrewLucy Poole '18
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Div A Raider SkipperOwen Ward '18
CrewHailey Feinzig '18
CrewEmir Hamzaogullari '19 [1-2]
CrewZane Salameh '18 [3-4]
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div A Sachems 1 SkipperJames Kiley '20
CrewJack Nixon '20
CrewWill Costa '17
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div A Sachems 2 SkipperRosie Crawford '20
CrewCiara Campbell '20
CrewScott Ferreira '20
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div A Sachems 3 SkipperIsabel Croteau '20
CrewMia Matteucci '20
Crewunknown crew '18
Boston Latin School Boston Latin School Div B Wolfpack SkipperNaomi Geffken '17
CrewIsabelle Cadene '17
CrewNoah Sargent '22
Brookline High Brookline High Div B Warriors SkipperNo show
Cambridge R&L School Cambridge R&L School Div B Falcons SkipperAnna Rasmussen '22
CrewSylvia Fresco '22 [1-2]
CrewLara Butera '17
CrewSoren Barclay '19 [3-4]
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div B Harbormen 1 SkipperSarah Herde '17
Crewellie collins '22
Reservenatalie gebhardt '16shea morrisey '22kevin porter '22patrick rizzo '22stephanie robinson '22Luke Slane '17noud winterink '18
Hingham High School Hingham High School Div B Harbormen 2 SkipperNo show
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Div B Warriors 1 SkipperMarni Clary '17
CrewConner Simmons '18
CrewVictoria LaRow '18
ReserveSdyney Blair '20Nate Borovick '17Eli Eckhouse '17Alex Floru '17Tyler George '17
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Div B Warriors 2 SkipperTyler George '17
CrewMatter Remley '20
CrewVictoria LaRow '18
ReserveJulia Ting '20
Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Div B Warriors 3 SkipperBlake Danzigeer '18
CrewLars Hjerpe '19
CrewPatrick Mcnulty '19
ReserveRyan Heindel '19
Natick High School Natick High School Div B Natick SkipperChris Troccolo '17
CrewHarrison Brady '17 [1-2]
CrewKatie Blinn '19
CrewNicole Massa '19 [3-4]
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div B Eagles 1 SkipperMeghan Haviland '17
CrewColin Snow '18
CrewSam Edson '18 [1-2]
CrewSam Hack '18 [3-4]
Sharon High School Sharon High School Div B Eagles 2 SkipperAaron Fairchild '17
CrewGloria Zhang '18
CrewChava (Roni) Sosis '18
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Div B Big Blue 1 SkipperOlivia Reiser '19
CrewHannah Zafrani '20
CrewFred Paster '19
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Div B Big Blue 2 SkipperNo show
CrewIan Jaffe '19
CrewAndrew (Chip) Cronin '20
Wayland High School Wayland High School Div B Warriors SkipperVincent Pak '17
CrewMack Kiesman '19
CrewIzzy Rubin '17
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Div B Raider SkipperEoin Shea '17 [1-2]
SkipperChase Ireland '18 [3-4]
CrewSerelle Carr '19 [1-2]
CrewCatherine Zhu '18
CrewThomas Gartley '18 [3-4]
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div B Sachems 1 SkipperMichael Yorsz '20
CrewMegan Yorsz '20
CrewAnna Wiatrowski '17
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div B Sachems 2 SkipperLukas Hoertdoerfer '20
Crewunknown crew '18
CrewOlivia Wiatrowski '20
Winchester High School Winchester High School Div B Sachems 3 SkipperLeo Terry '20
CrewLucas Cafferky '20
Crewunknown skipper '17

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 4 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1James Kiley '20Winchester High School Sachems 14/40.772.83+2.0760th → 99th5.71%2.5 / 8.6
2Will Sargent '17Boston Latin School4/40.332.71+2.3924th → 99th7.41%2.8 / 9.9
3Jack Eberhardt '17Sharon High School Eagles 14/41.062.15+1.0976th → 99th2.112%3.8 / 7.6
4Owen Ward '18Wellesley High School4/41.001.43+0.4374th → 92nd0.433%6.0 / 7.8
5Townsend Morey '17Natick High School4/40.431.06+0.6433rd → 77th0.930%7.5 / 9.6
7Max Katz-Christy '22Cambridge R&L School4/40.66u0.96+0.3051st → 73rd0.245%8.2 / 8.9
8Nate Borovick '17Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 24/40.550.56+0.0141st → 41st0.052%9.2 / 9.3
9Rosie Crawford '20Winchester High School Sachems 24/40.280.63+0.3519th → 51st0.346%9.8 / 10.1
10Peter Durkin '17Hingham High School4/40.670.29−0.3753rd → 19th0.464%10.0 / 8.9
11Julia Wyatt '17Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 14/40.420.58+0.1633rd → 45th0.158%10.2 / 9.7
13Gautam Goel '17Sharon High School Eagles 24/40.530.35−0.1740th → 29th0.167%10.8 / 9.4
14Emily Wang '17Wayland High School4/4-0.040.48+0.524th → 36th0.466%12.5 / 11.1
15Isabel Croteau '20Winchester High School Sachems 34/40.69-0.05−0.7453rd → 4th1.792%13.2 / 8.8
16Daniel Guzi '19Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 34/4-0.150.06+0.201st → 8th0.175%13.8 / 11.5
17Liad Zafrani '18Swampscott High School4/4-0.31-0.36−0.051st → 1st0.087%15.5 / 11.9

Division B  18 boats · 4 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Michael Yorsz '20Winchester High School Sachems 14/40.653.05+2.4051st → 99th7.11%2.2 / 8.9
2Meghan Haviland '17Sharon High School Eagles 14/41.062.78+1.7276th → 99th4.24%2.5 / 7.6
3Tyler George '17Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 24/40.641.94+1.3151st → 99th2.96%4.0 / 9.0
4Marni Clary '17Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 14/40.201.39+1.2015th → 92nd2.614%6.5 / 10.4
5Aaron Fairchild '17Sharon High School Eagles 24/40.671.30+0.6353rd → 91st0.831%6.8 / 8.8
5Naomi Geffken '17Boston Latin School4/40.491.22+0.7337th → 88th1.124%6.8 / 9.4
8Lukas Hoertdoerfer '20Winchester High School Sachems 24/40.610.89+0.2850th → 71st0.245%8.2 / 8.9
10Sarah Herde '17Hingham High School4/40.580.44−0.1445th → 35th0.067%10.5 / 9.1
11Anna Rasmussen '22Cambridge R&L School4/40.66u0.05−0.6251st → 8th1.172%10.8 / 8.8
12Leo Terry '20Winchester High School Sachems 34/41.02-0.20−1.2274th → 1st4.087%11.2 / 7.9
13Chase Ireland '18Wellesley High School Raider2/40.450.44−0.0236th → 33rd0.070%11.5 / 9.5
13Eoin Shea '17Wellesley High School Raider2/4-0.170.41+0.581st → 33rd0.454%12.0 / 11.5
15Vincent Pak '17Wayland High School4/40.06-0.41−0.478th → 1st0.575%13.0 / 10.7
16Chris Troccolo '17Natick High School4/40.27u-0.35−0.6119th → 1st1.192%14.8 / 10.1
17Blake Danzigeer '18Lincoln Sudbury Reginal High School Warriors 34/4-0.14-0.38−0.231st → 1st0.189%15.2 / 11.4
18Olivia Reiser '19Swampscott High School4/4-0.31-0.75−0.441st → 1st0.493%16.2 / 11.9

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →