Minnetonka High School '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 38–17 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | — | 34–16 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 4–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 13–14 against 14.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | crew | 2.50 | 0.23 | 1–10 | 3.9 | −2.27 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.46 | 2.94 | 12–4 | 10.9 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA West Baker Pre-Qualifier | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Mallory Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 18.0 | — |
| LMSS Team Race | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | Crew | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Crew | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament | Crew | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifiers 2014 | Crew | B | 2 | 4.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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