| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Wayzata High School | Trojans | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Benilde St Margarets | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Mahtomedi | Zephyrs | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Chanhassen High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 440 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 36 matches (94%) with a log-loss of 0.279 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 6.53 | 9.53 | 13–0 | 11.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| 3 | Southwest Senior High School | 3.53 | 4.27 | 7–6 | 5.7 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 2 | Wayzata High School | 4.88 | 5.53 | 10–3 | 9.0 | +0.65 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 6 | Chanhassen High School | 1.41 | 0.83 | 1–9 | 1.5 | −0.58 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 4 | Benilde St Margarets | 3.04 | 2.04 | 3–10 | 4.6 | −0.99 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 5 | Mahtomedi | 2.81 | 1.45 | 2–8 | 3.6 | −1.36 | 1.2 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belle Loosbrock | Minnetonka High School | 2.59 | 5.59 | 13–0 | 11.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| Alec Mckee | Minnetonka High School | 1.59 | 4.59 | 5–0 | 4.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 35% |
| Lily Loosbrock | Minnetonka High School | 1.92 | 4.92 | 8–0 | 7.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| Luc Mainguy | Southwest Senior High School | 1.55 | 2.30 | 7–6 | 5.7 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Lochlan Anders-Macleod | Southwest Senior High School | 0.46 | 1.21 | 7–6 | 5.7 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Charlie Hicks | Wayzata High School | 1.55 | 2.20 | 10–3 | 9.0 | +0.65 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Alex Honke | Wayzata High School | 1.23 | 1.88 | 10–3 | 9.0 | +0.65 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Ryne Ryshavy | Chanhassen High School | -0.67 | -1.24 | 1–9 | 1.5 | −0.58 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Carolina Jimenez | Benilde St Margarets | 0.83 | -0.17 | 3–10 | 4.6 | −0.99 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Joey Simpson | Benilde St Margarets | 0.72 | -0.27 | 3–10 | 4.6 | −0.99 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Claire Clark | Mahtomedi | 0.71 | -0.65 | 2–8 | 3.6 | −1.36 | 1.2 | 96% |
| Izzi Boo | Mahtomedi | 0.16 | -1.20 | 2–8 | 3.6 | −1.36 | 1.2 | 96% |
| Genna Viggiano | Mahtomedi | 1.55 | 0.19 | 2–8 | 3.6 | −1.36 | 1.2 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Trojans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Zephyrs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Trojans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Zephyrs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Trojans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Trojans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Skippers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zephyrs | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Trojans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Alec Mckee '15 Belle Loosbrock '15 Jack Bitney '15 Lily Loosbrock '17 |
Kendall Vanhorne '15 Rachel Price '15 Jacob Siegel '15 Ashley Huynh '15 |
|
Wayzata High School | Trojans | Alex Honke '16 Charlie Hicks '16 Jackson Connell '17 |
Brianna Misk '17 Avery Beltrand '16 Mckenna Miller '16 |
|
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | Lochlan Anders-Macleod '17 Luc Mainguy '16 Michael Stone '15 |
Jesse Densch '15 Kaj Anders-Macleod '15 Stephanie Daub '16 |
|
Benilde St Margarets | Varsity | Carolina Jimenez '17 Joey Simpson '17 Maggie Houtz '15 |
Adrienne Williams '15 Liam Long '17 Tim Zaccaro '15 |
|
Mahtomedi | Zephyrs | Claire Clark '15 Genna Viggiano '17 Izzi Boo '16 |
Clara Brown '17 Courtney Clark '17 Annika Hsu '16 |
|
Chanhassen High School | Varsity | Dane Pedersen '15 Lucas Haarstad '17 Ryne Ryshavy '17 |
Ryan Bohara '18 Harry Penner '17 Michael Donadio '17 Jordan Leines '15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
