| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Orono High School | Scarlet | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Benilde St Margarets | Red | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,667 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 30 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.512 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.00 ± 0.44: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Arrowhead High School | 3.33 | 5.47 | 7–3 | 3.7 | +2.15 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 1 | Wayzata High School | 4.59 | 5.88 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.29 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 4 | Southwest Senior High School | 3.58 | 3.44 | 4–6 | 4.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2 | Minnetonka High School | 6.13 | 5.51 | 8–2 | 8.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 5 | Orono High School | 3.79 | 2.74 | 3–7 | 4.6 | −1.05 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 6 | Benilde St Margarets | 2.54 | -0.46 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Bischoff | Arrowhead High School | 1.24 | 3.38 | 7–3 | 3.7 | +2.15 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Lizzy Friend | Arrowhead High School | 0.72 | 2.87 | 7–3 | 3.7 | +2.15 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Henry Chapman | Arrowhead High School | 0.70 | 2.85 | 7–3 | 3.7 | +2.15 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Charlie Hicks | Wayzata High School | 1.81 | 3.10 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.29 | 1.1 | 20% |
| Charles "Alex" Honke | Wayzata High School | 0.80 | 2.08 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.29 | 1.1 | 20% |
| Jason Davis | Southwest Senior High School | 1.85 | 1.71 | 4–6 | 4.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Lily Loosbrock | Minnetonka High School | 1.86 | 1.25 | 8–2 | 8.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Conrad (Cort) Vandlik | Minnetonka High School | 2.08 | 1.47 | 8–2 | 8.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Erich Pinske | Orono High School | 1.01 | -0.03 | 3–7 | 4.6 | −1.05 | 0.9 | 93% |
| Henry Jaffray | Orono High School | 0.73 | -0.61 | 2–6 | 3.5 | −1.34 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Joey Simpson | Benilde St Margarets | 0.94 | -2.06 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Riley Norman | Benilde St Margarets | 0.82 | -2.17 | 0–10 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Warhawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Navy | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Scarlet | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warhawks | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Warhawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Navy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Skippers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warhawks | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Scarlet | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Navy | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Warhawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Scarlet | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 27 | |
Navy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 29 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Scarlet | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Navy | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Warhawks | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Wayzata High School | Navy | Charles "Alex" Honke '16 Charlie Hicks '16 Jackson Connell '17 Wiley Hunt '19 |
Mckenna Miller '16 Emma Aubuchon '19 Brianna Misk '17 Anna Brew '17 |
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 Lily Loosbrock '17 Nathan Olmsted '19 |
Graham Ness '19 Berette Mcnaught '16 Lizzy Holimann '16 Carl Eaton '17 Sydney Maxwell '17 |
|
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | Alec Bischoff '16 Henry Chapman '19 Lizzy Friend '16 |
Chloe Frentzel '17 Erin Schaubel '18 Gavin Burkhart '16 |
|
Southwest Senior High School | Varsity | Grover Warner '19 Jason Davis '17 Simon Rothman '17 |
Henry Chadbourn '18 Madison Mott '17 Remi Clark '19 |
|
Orono High School | Scarlet | Erich Pinske '18 Erik Sundberg '18 Henry Jaffray '18 Samuel Bartel '18 |
Erik Sundberg '18 Kristin Berg '16 Archie Bolgar '19 Helen Mcdonnell '17 |
|
Benilde St Margarets | Red | Joey Simpson '17 Riley Norman '19 Walker Mullin '19 |
Will Driessen '19 Aaron Wachowiak '19 Liam Long '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
