Minnetonka High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.26 (fleet 3.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–12 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 10–11 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 10–11 against 11.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.46 | 1.44 | 2–9 | 3.3 | −1.02 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 2.30 | 1.68 | 8–2 | 8.6 | −0.61 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Minnesota State Singlehanded Championship Radial Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.3 | 1.88 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| LMSS Team Race Tier 3 | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Nathan Olmsted |  U. S. Coast Guard Academy |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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