Arrowhead High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.39 (fleet 2.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–3 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 7–3 against 3.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-23 | MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.24 | 3.38 | 7–3 | 3.7 | +2.15 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Baker West Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Kick Off Classic 2014 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.7 | 1.03 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Alec Bischoff |  Embry-Riddle University |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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