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LMSS TEAM RACE

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Trojans 14–1
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 11–4
3 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Mixed 7–8
4 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 5–10
5 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Mixed 4–8
6 Southwest High School Southwest High School mixed 4–8
7 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 3–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,164 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 48 matches (56%) with a log-loss of 0.688 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.05 ± 0.34: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Wayzata High School
Trojans		35.33Jackson Connell / Brianna Misk 2.30
Charles "Alex" Honke / Mckenna Miller 1.18 12–1
Charlie Hicks / Divya Periakaruppan 1.71 8–0
Charlie Hicks / Emma Aubuchon 1.88 6–1
Charles "Alex" Honke / Emma Aubuchon 1.09 2–0		65%14–1 (93%)+4.3
2Minnetonka High School
Skippers 1		15.90
school −0.16, home +0.51		Conrad (Cort) Vandlik / Berette Mcnaught 2.44
Mike Johnson / Lizzy Holimann 1.45
Graham Ness / Sydney Maxwell		74%11–4 (73%)−0.2
3Mounds Park Academy
Mixed		63.33Toby Sullivan / Jose Verela
Samantha Forgosh / Karan Jain
Jack Indritz / Karan Jain		27%7–8 (47%)+3.0
4Minnetonka High School
Skippers 2		25.72
school −0.16, home +0.51		Carl Eaton / Garrett Moen 1.85
Matthew Kickhafer / Kacy Bryant
Austin Haag / Hannah Dillahunt 1.66		71%5–10 (33%)−5.7
5Mahtomedi
Mixed		72.53
school +0.07		Anneka Ecker / Annika Hsu
John Kochevar / Cole Barre
Abby Ardito / Acadia Hegedus		21%4–8 (33%)+1.5
6Southwest High School
mixed		53.58
school +0.29		Simon Rothman / Remi Clark 1.02
Lachlan Anders-Macleod / Henry Chadbourn 3–3
Lochlan Anders-Macleod / Lachlan Anders-Macleod 0.62 3–3
Jason Davis / Madison Mott 2.03 1–5
Grover Warner / Lochlan Anders-Macleod 0.61 1–5		36%4–8 (33%)−0.3
7Orono High School
Scarlet		44.13
school −0.51		Samuel Bartel / Erich Pinske 2.53 0–6
Henry Jaffray / Archie Bolgar 1.07 0–6
Erik Sundberg / Helen Mcdonnell 0–6
Samuel Bartel / Archie Bolgar 2.51 3–3
Henry Jaffray / Kristin Berg 1.06 2–2
Erich Pinske / Erik Sundberg 1.21 2–2
Henry Jaffray / Helen Mcdonnell 1.09 1–1
Erik Sundberg / Erich Pinske 1–1		47%3–9 (25%)−2.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Wayzata High School Trojans5.338.2714–19.7+2.945.81%
3Mounds Park Academy Mixed3.334.677–84.0+1.342.46%
5Mahtomedi Mixed2.533.484–82.5+0.960.921%
2Minnetonka High School Skippers 15.905.8311–411.1−0.070.067%
6Southwest High School mixed3.583.384–84.3−0.200.071%
7Orono High School Scarlet4.132.583–95.7−1.562.398%
4Minnetonka High School Skippers 25.723.315–1010.6−2.417.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Charles "Alex" HonkeWayzata High School1.184.1114–19.7+2.945.81%
Charlie HicksWayzata High School1.714.6514–19.7+2.945.81%
Erich PinskeOrono High School1.212.442–21.1+1.230.631%
Anneka EckerMahtomedi0.381.334–82.5+0.960.921%
John KochevarMahtomedi0.751.714–82.5+0.960.921%
Abby ArditoMahtomedi0.751.714–82.5+0.960.921%
Lochlan Anders-MacleodSouthwest High School0.621.483–32.2+0.860.437%
Conrad (Cort) VandlikMinnetonka High School2.442.3711–411.1−0.070.067%
Mike JohnsonMinnetonka High School1.451.3811–411.1−0.070.067%
Henry JaffrayOrono High School1.07-0.493–95.7−1.562.398%
Jason DavisSouthwest High School2.030.441–52.2−1.591.095%
Austin HaagMinnetonka High School1.66-0.755–1010.6−2.417.7>99%
Erik SundbergOrono High School0.84-2.401–74.6−3.245.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Mounds Park Academy MixedMinnetonka High School Skippers 210%upset
12Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Orono High School Scarlet81%
13Southwest High School mixedMahtomedi Mixed63%
14Wayzata High School TrojansMinnetonka High School Skippers 244%upset
15Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mounds Park Academy Mixed91%
16Mahtomedi MixedOrono High School Scarlet20%upset
17Wayzata High School TrojansSouthwest High School mixed85%
18Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 255%
19Mahtomedi MixedMounds Park Academy Mixed37%upset
110Southwest High School mixedOrono High School Scarlet31%upset
111Wayzata High School TrojansMinnetonka High School Skippers 139%upset
112Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Mahtomedi Mixed92%
113Mounds Park Academy MixedSouthwest High School mixed33%upset
114Wayzata High School TrojansOrono High School Scarlet70%
115Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mahtomedi Mixed93%
116Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Southwest High School mixed77%
117Orono High School ScarletMounds Park Academy Mixed65%
118Wayzata High School TrojansMahtomedi Mixed90%
119Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Southwest High School mixed80%
120Orono High School ScarletMinnetonka High School Skippers 226%upset
121Mounds Park Academy MixedWayzata High School Trojans17%upset
222Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Mounds Park Academy Mixed86%
223Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Orono High School Scarlet81%
224Mahtomedi MixedSouthwest High School mixed41%upset
225Wayzata High School TrojansMinnetonka High School Skippers 241%upset
226Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mounds Park Academy Mixed87%
227Mahtomedi MixedOrono High School Scarlet25%upset
228Wayzata High School TrojansSouthwest High School mixed84%
229Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 253%
230Mounds Park Academy MixedMahtomedi Mixed64%
231Southwest High School mixedOrono High School Scarlet33%upset
232Wayzata High School TrojansMinnetonka High School Skippers 139%upset
233Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Mahtomedi Mixed92%
234Mounds Park Academy MixedSouthwest High School mixed37%upset
235Wayzata High School TrojansOrono High School Scarlet69%
236Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mahtomedi Mixed92%
237Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Southwest High School mixed78%
238Mounds Park Academy MixedOrono High School Scarlet39%upset
239Wayzata High School TrojansMahtomedi Mixed88%
240Southwest High School mixedMinnetonka High School Skippers 121%upset
241Orono High School ScarletMinnetonka High School Skippers 224%upset
242Wayzata High School TrojansMounds Park Academy Mixed81%
443Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mounds Park Academy Mixed86%
444Wayzata High School TrojansMinnetonka High School Skippers 240%upset
445Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 252%
446Wayzata High School TrojansMounds Park Academy Mixed80%
447Mounds Park Academy MixedMinnetonka High School Skippers 215%upset
448Wayzata High School TrojansMinnetonka High School Skippers 138%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Mounds Park Academy Mixed 1-3-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-6
2 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 2-3-4 def. Orono High School Scarlet 1-5-6
3 Southwest High School mixed 2-3-5 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 1-4-6
4 Wayzata High School Trojans 2-3-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-4-6
5 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-4 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 3-5-6
6 Mahtomedi Mixed 1-2-6 def. Orono High School Scarlet 3-4-5
7 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-3-4 def. Southwest High School mixed 2-5-6
8 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-4-6
9 Mahtomedi Mixed 1-3-4 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 2-5-6
10 Southwest High School mixed 2-3-5 def. Orono High School Scarlet 1-4-6
11 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-4 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 3-5-6
12 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-3-4 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 1-5-6
13 Mounds Park Academy Mixed 1-2-3 RAF def. Southwest High School mixed 4-5-6
14 Wayzata High School Trojans 2-3-4 def. Orono High School Scarlet 1-5-6
15 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-4 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 3-5-6
16 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-3-4 def. Southwest High School mixed 1-5-6
17 Orono High School Scarlet 1-2-6 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 3-4-5
18 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-4 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 3-5-6
19 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-5 def. Southwest High School mixed 3-4-6
20 Orono High School Scarlet 1-2-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-4-6
21 Mounds Park Academy Mixed 1-2-5 def. Wayzata High School Trojans 3-4-6
22 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-5 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 3-4-6
23 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-5 def. Orono High School Scarlet 3-4-6
24 Mahtomedi Mixed 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School mixed 4-5-6
25 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-4 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-5-6
26 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-6 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 3-4-5
27 Mahtomedi Mixed 1-2-6 def. Orono High School Scarlet 3-4-5
28 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-6 def. Southwest High School mixed 3-4-5
29 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4-5-6
30 Mounds Park Academy Mixed 1-3-4 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 2-5-6
31 Southwest High School mixed 2-3-4 def. Orono High School Scarlet 1-5-6
32 Wayzata High School Trojans 2-3-4 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-5-6
33 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-4 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 3-5-6
34 Mounds Park Academy Mixed 1-3-6 def. Southwest High School mixed 2-4-5
35 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-5 def. Orono High School Scarlet 3-4-6
36 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 2-3-5 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 1-4-6
37 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-4 def. Southwest High School mixed 3-5-6
38 Mounds Park Academy Mixed 1-2-6 def. Orono High School Scarlet 3-4-5
39 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-3-4 def. Mahtomedi Mixed 2-5-6
40 Southwest High School mixed 1-2-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 3-4-5
41 Orono High School Scarlet 1-3-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-5
42 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-4 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 3-5-6
43 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-4 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 3-5-6
44 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-3-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-6
45 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-4-6
46 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-4 def. Mounds Park Academy Mixed 3-5-6
47 Mounds Park Academy Mixed 1-2-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-4-6
48 Wayzata High School Trojans 1-2-5 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 3-4-6

Conditions — 05/21/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.6 kn
avg  ·  max 2.6 kn
Gusts to 9.3 kn
From ESE (104°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover7% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1021.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Minnetonka — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnetonka in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →