Mounds Park Academy '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.39 (fleet 2.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–8 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 7–8 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-21 | LMSS TEAM RACE | skipper | 1.36 | 2.70 | 7–8 | 4.0 | +1.34 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| MYST May Madness | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.9 | 1.72 |
| MN Conference #4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.05 |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| LMSS MN Conference #3 | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 1.15 |
| Art Johnson Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 2.81 |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| LMSS TEAM RACE | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| St. Croix Conference #1 | Crew | B | 5 | 1.4 | — |
| MN Conference Finale - Calhoun | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 1.32 |
| MN Conference #2 | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.3 | 2.40 |
| Minnesota Conference Regatta #5 | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 1.47 |
| LMSS Conference Regatta #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 1.73 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
