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LMSS MN Conference #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 12 11 23
2 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 7 23 30
3 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 20 16 36
4 Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 27 11 38
5 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 24 39 63
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 31 33 64
7 Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity 19 50 69
8 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 43 33 76
9 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 46 32 78
10 Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 46 47 93
11 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 60 35 95
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1 1 1 1 3 7 Owen Harrod '22
Cole Barre '21
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 3 2 2 3 2 12 Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-5]
Martin Weiss '22 [1-2, 5]
Cameron Davison '19 [3-4]
Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity 5 5 3 5 1 19 Michael Dowson '19
Rowan O'Connell '20
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 2 4 4 4 6 20 Jack Indritz '17 [1-5]
Jose Verela '19 [1-2, 5]
Samantha Forgosh '22 [3-4]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 6 6 5 2 5 24 Calvin Lamosse '21
Gints Pelecis '21
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 4 3 6 7 7 27 Adam Tronnes '20
Leigh Marker '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 7 7 7 6 4 31 Lucia Loosbrock '21
Beth Walsh '20
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 8 8 10 9 8 43 Frank Heaney '16
Mason Pirner '21
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 9 9 8 10 10 46 Reilly Hannula '20
Reilly Hannula '20
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 10 10 9 8 9 46 Dominic Serino '19
Ethan Blum '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 RAF RAF RAF RAF DNS 60 Mike Johnson '17
Lexie Baker '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 1 2 1 1 6 11 Kytalin Hendrickson '22 [1-5]
Chase Blum '18 [1-4]
Cameron Davison '19 [5]
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 5 1 2 2 1 11 Brian Olson '18 [1-5]
Emmanuel Hanson '20 [1-2]
Peter Zajec '20 [3-5]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 2 3 3 3 5 16 Karan Jain '19
Toby Sullivan '19
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 4 6 7 4 2 23 Morgan Termaat '18
Anika Liner '21
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 7 9 5 8 3 32 Megan Schoenzeit '21
Ellen Tovb '19
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 3 4 9 6 11 33 Remi Clark '20
Spence Christensen '22
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 6 8 6 5 8 33 Rex Frazier '21
Evan Komis '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 8 7 4 9 7 35 Lexie Baker '19
Alexa Shinler '20
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 9 11 8 7 4 39 James Jagielski '21
William Hawley '21
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 10 5 11 11 10 47 Samantha Thomas '21
Alexia Harrison '20
Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity 11 10 10 10 9 50 Khan Dickel '20
Joseph Goleczka '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Eden Prairie Sailing TeamEden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity1717171717
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Varsity2121212121
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs2020202020
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 12424242424
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 21515151515
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers1414141414
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet2323232323
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 11919191919
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 21616161616
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity1818181818
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy2222222222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Eden Prairie Sailing TeamEden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity1717171717
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Varsity2121212121
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs2020202020
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 12424242424
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 21515151515
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers1414141414
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet2323232323
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 11919191919
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 21616161616
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity1818181818
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy2222222222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Michael Dowson '19 Rowan O'Connell '20
Varsity Khan Dickel '20 Joseph Goleczka '19
Edina High School Edina High School Reilly Hannula '20 Reilly Hannula '20
Varsity Samantha Thomas '21 Alexia Harrison '20
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 Cole Barre '21
Zephyrs Morgan Termaat '18 Anika Liner '21
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Lucia Loosbrock '21 Beth Walsh '20
Skippers 1 Rex Frazier '21 Evan Komis '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mike Johnson '17 Lexie Baker '19
Skippers 2 Lexie Baker '19 Alexa Shinler '20
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Jack Indritz '17 [1-5] Jose Verela '19 [1-2, 5]
Samantha Forgosh '22 [3-4]
Panthers Karan Jain '19 Toby Sullivan '19
Orono High School Orono High School Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-5] Martin Weiss '22 [1-2, 5]
Cameron Davison '19 [3-4]
Scarlet Kytalin Hendrickson '22 [1-5] Chase Blum '18 [1-4]
Cameron Davison '19 [5]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Frank Heaney '16 Mason Pirner '21
Varsity 1 Remi Clark '20 Spence Christensen '22
Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 Gints Pelecis '21
Varsity 2 James Jagielski '21 William Hawley '21
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Adam Tronnes '20 Leigh Marker '17
Varsity Brian Olson '18 [1-5] Emmanuel Hanson '20 [1-2]
Peter Zajec '20 [3-5]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Dominic Serino '19 Ethan Blum '20
Navy Megan Schoenzeit '21 Ellen Tovb '19

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1025.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.6 kn
avg  ·  max 3.8 kn
Gusts to 9.7 kn
From NW (308°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1025.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Minnetonka: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →