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LMSS Conference Regatta #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 29 9 38
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 27 23 50
3 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 13 38 51
4 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 30 27 57
5 Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 49 22 71
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 47 36 83
7 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 52 42 94
8 Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Varsity 27 71 98
9 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 46 66 112
10 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 62 52 114
11 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 50 66 116
12 Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 59 70 129
13 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 2 64 71 135
14 White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 83 60 143
15 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 1 82 69 151
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 5 2 1 1 1 3 13 Greg Moore '15
Jamie Bongard '15
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Varsity 1 9 11 2 2 2 27 Maggie Houtz '15 [1-3]
Dane Pedersen '15 [4-6]
Jacob Zagaros '19 [1-3]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 3 6 8 5 4 1 27 Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17
India Nelson '16
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 2 5 5 4 5 8 29 Carl Eaton '17
Luke Brady '19
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 7 3 10 3 3 4 30 Josh Sullivan '16
Emily Jesmer '17
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 6 1 6 9 11 13 46 Lizzie Easter '15
Maddison Mott '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 4 7 12 8 9 7 47 Sydney Maxwell '17
Begad Elmeligy '15
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 14 8 3 7 6 11 49 Joe Sanderson '18
Steve Franklin '18
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 12 4 9 12 7 6 50 Mike Johnson '17
Charlie Dutton '19
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 8 10 13 6 10 5 52 Emma Aubuchon '19
Ava Grafius '15
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 9 11 4 10 13 12 59 Aj Adducci '15
Cierra Ramsay '16
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 10 14 7 13 8 10 62 Rachel Bartel '20
Kristin Berg '17
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 2 11 12 2 11 14 14 64 No Show
No Show
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 1 15 13 15 15 15 9 82 Ryne Ryshavy '17
Lucas Haarstad '17
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 13 15 14 14 12 15 83 Emily Stanley '17 [1-6]
Laurel Schreier '17 [1-4]
Charlie Wagner '16 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 1 1 1 1 1 4 9 Benjamin Callister '17
Garrett Moen '19
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 3 7 2 6 3 1 22 Brian Olson '18
Leigh Marker '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 7 2 3 2 7 2 23 Lizzy Holimann '16 [1-6]
Kent Penner '18 [1-4]
India Nelson '16 [5-6]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 2 4 8 5 5 3 27 Jack Indritz '17
Karan Jain '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 11 3 4 3 10 5 36 Andrew Nau '15
Dan Callister '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 6 13 5 4 2 8 38 Mike Johnson '17
Stratford Vandlik '18
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 8 6 6 8 4 10 42 Wiley Hunt '19 [1-6]
Alex Saffert '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sophia Borrell '16 [3-4]
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 10 5 10 9 9 9 52 Ari Dworsky '19
Dominic Serino '19
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 4 8 14 DNF 11 7 60 Ethan Staruck '19 [1-6]
Charlie Wagner '16 [1-4]
Laurel Schreier '17 [5-6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 9 10 15 7 14 11 66 Henry Westlund '19
Kendyll Vandlik '20
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 15 14 13 10 8 6 66 Jack Erickson '17
Rachel Syring '17
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 1 5 9 12 12 15 DNF 69 Ryan Bohara '18
Max Penner '18
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 14 11 7 11 13 14 70 Ella Brunsman '16
Grace Cummins '16
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 2 12 12 9 13 12 13 71 No Show
Michael Donadio '17
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Varsity 13 15 11 14 6 12 71 Eleanor Christianson '19 [1-6]
Gabrielle Benacka '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Claire Christianson '18 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Varsity101010101010
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 1333333
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 2151515151515
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 1444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 2555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 3999999
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 4222222
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 5666666
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity888888
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity141414141414
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity111111111111
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity111111
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity131313131313
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue777777
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears161616161616

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Varsity101010101010
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 1333333
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity 2151515151515
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 1444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 2555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 3999999
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 4222222
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 5666666
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity888888
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity141414141414
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity111111111111
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity111111
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity131313131313
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue777777
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears161616161616
School / Team SkipperCrew
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Maggie Houtz '15 [1-3]
Dane Pedersen '15 [4-6]		 Jacob Zagaros '19 [1-3]
Varsity Eleanor Christianson '19 [1-6] Gabrielle Benacka '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Claire Christianson '18 [3-4]
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Ryne Ryshavy '17 Lucas Haarstad '17
Varsity 1 Ryan Bohara '18 Max Penner '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School No Show No Show
Varsity 2 No Show Michael Donadio '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 India Nelson '16
Skippers 1 Lizzy Holimann '16 [1-6] Kent Penner '18 [1-4]
India Nelson '16 [5-6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Greg Moore '15 Jamie Bongard '15
Skippers 2 Mike Johnson '17 Stratford Vandlik '18
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mike Johnson '17 Charlie Dutton '19
Skippers 3 Henry Westlund '19 Kendyll Vandlik '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Carl Eaton '17 Luke Brady '19
Skippers 4 Benjamin Callister '17 Garrett Moen '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Sydney Maxwell '17 Begad Elmeligy '15
Skippers 5 Andrew Nau '15 Dan Callister '19
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Josh Sullivan '16 Emily Jesmer '17
Varsity Jack Indritz '17 Karan Jain '19
Orono High School Orono High School Rachel Bartel '20 Kristin Berg '17
Varsity Ari Dworsky '19 Dominic Serino '19
Providence Academy Providence Academy Aj Adducci '15 Cierra Ramsay '16
Varsity Ella Brunsman '16 Grace Cummins '16
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Joe Sanderson '18 Steve Franklin '18
Varsity Brian Olson '18 Leigh Marker '17
Washburn High School Washburn High School Lizzie Easter '15 Maddison Mott '17
Varsity Jack Erickson '17 Rachel Syring '17
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Emma Aubuchon '19 Ava Grafius '15
Blue Wiley Hunt '19 [1-6] Alex Saffert '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sophia Borrell '16 [3-4]
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Emily Stanley '17 [1-6] Laurel Schreier '17 [1-4]
Charlie Wagner '16 [5-6]
Bears Ethan Staruck '19 [1-6] Charlie Wagner '16 [1-4]
Laurel Schreier '17 [5-6]

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1011.2 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1011.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Minnetonka: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →