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MN Conference #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 21 16 37
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 19 32 51
3 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 24 29 53
4 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 31 38 69
5 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 32 44 76
6 Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 67 26 93
7 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 36 68 104
8 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 51 59 110
9 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 70 61 131
10 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 70 66 136
11 Blake School Blake School Bears 79 58 137
12 Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 79 60 139
13 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 58 83 141
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 3 2 2 3 5 1 3 19 Greg Moore '15
India Nelson '16
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 2 7 1 4 4 2 1 21 Toby Sullivan '19
Emily Stanley '17
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 1 1 5 5 3 7 2 24 Samuel Bartel '18
Erik Sundberg '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 4 3 7 1 1 4 11 31 Mike Johnson '17 [1-7]
Kendyll Vandlik '20 [1-4]
Dan Callister '19 [5-7]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 8 6 4 2 2 6 4 32 Emma Aubuchon '19
No Show
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 6 5 3 6 8 3 5 36 Sydney Maxwell '17
Ben Kosvic '15
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 10 4 8 7 7 5 10 51 Carl Eaton '17
Jamie Bongard '15
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 9 8 11 8 6 10 6 58 No Show
Angela Peterson '15
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 5 12 10 9 10 8 13 67 No Show
Steve Franklin '18
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 7 11 12 11 9 13 7 70 Foss Kerker '17 [1-4]
Henry Johnson '18 [5-7]
Jason Davis '17 [1-4]
Frank Heaney '16 [5-7]
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 11 9 9 10 11 11 9 70 Rachel Bartel '20
Kristin Berg '17
Blake School Blake School Bears 12 13 6 12 12 12 12 79 Annika Ekholm '16
Caitlin Mccandler '15
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 13 10 13 13 13 9 8 79 Aj Adducci '15 [1-2, 5-7]
Jack Wall '17 [3-4]
Gabrielle Benacka '16 [1-2]
Eleanor Christianson '19 [3-6]
Jack Wall '17 [7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 1 1 2 1 1 9 1 16 Jack Indritz '17 [1-6]
Josh Sullivan '16 [7]
Josh Sullivan '16 [1-6]
Jack Indritz '17 [7]
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 6 10 1 2 2 1 4 26 Leigh Marker '17 [1-3]
Brian Olson '18 [4-7]
No Show [1-3]
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 5 2 3 6 5 6 2 29 Solomon Dworsky '17
Erich Pinske '18
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 3 7 5 4 6 2 5 32 Mike Johnson '17
Sydney Wicklacz '15
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 12 3 10 3 3 4 3 38 Graham Ness '19
Charlie Dutton '19
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 2 6 12 7 4 7 6 44 Wiley Hunt '19
Sophia Borrell '16
Blake School Blake School Bears 7 12 4 10 12 5 8 58 Andrew Larson '15
Cole Woerner '18
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 8 5 9 12 7 11 7 59 Garrett Moen '19 [1-2]
Benjamin Callister '17 [3-7]
Alexander Witcraft '18 [1-2]
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 9 9 8 9 8 8 9 60 Ella Brunsman '16 [1-7]
Grace Van Dellen '18 [1-4]
Gabrielle Benacka '16 [5-7]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 10 8 11 8 11 3 10 61 Foss Kerker '17
Frank Heaney '16
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 11 4 7 11 10 12 11 66 Zach Depietro '16
Dominic Serino '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4 11 6 5 RAF RAF RAF 68 Henry Westlund '19 [1-6]
Garrett Moen '19 [7]
Stratford Vandlik '18 [1-4]
Garrett Moen '19 [5-6]
Henry Westlund '19 [7]
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 13 13 13 13 9 10 12 83 No Show
Jacob Zagaros '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Blake SchoolBlake School Bears12121212121212
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity9999999
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 14444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 25555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 36666666
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 47777777
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity2222222
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 11111111
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 211111111111111
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity3333333
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity13131313131313
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity8888888
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue10101010101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Blake SchoolBlake School Bears12121212121212
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity9999999
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 14444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 25555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 36666666
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 47777777
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity2222222
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 11111111
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 211111111111111
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity3333333
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity13131313131313
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity8888888
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue10101010101010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Blake School Blake School Annika Ekholm '16 Caitlin Mccandler '15
Bears Andrew Larson '15 Cole Woerner '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School No Show Angela Peterson '15
Varsity No Show Jacob Zagaros '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mike Johnson '17 [1-7] Kendyll Vandlik '20 [1-4]
Dan Callister '19 [5-7]
Skippers 1 Graham Ness '19 Charlie Dutton '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Sydney Maxwell '17 Ben Kosvic '15
Skippers 2 Henry Westlund '19 [1-6]
Garrett Moen '19 [7]		 Stratford Vandlik '18 [1-4]
Garrett Moen '19 [5-6]
Henry Westlund '19 [7]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Carl Eaton '17 Jamie Bongard '15
Skippers 3 Garrett Moen '19 [1-2]
Benjamin Callister '17 [3-7]		 Alexander Witcraft '18 [1-2]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Greg Moore '15 India Nelson '16
Skippers 4 Mike Johnson '17 Sydney Wicklacz '15
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Toby Sullivan '19 Emily Stanley '17
Varsity Jack Indritz '17 [1-6]
Josh Sullivan '16 [7]		 Josh Sullivan '16 [1-6]
Jack Indritz '17 [7]
Orono High School Orono High School Samuel Bartel '18 Erik Sundberg '17
Varsity 1 Solomon Dworsky '17 Erich Pinske '18
Orono High School Orono High School Rachel Bartel '20 Kristin Berg '17
Varsity 2 Zach Depietro '16 Dominic Serino '19
Providence Academy Providence Academy Aj Adducci '15 [1-2, 5-7]
Jack Wall '17 [3-4]		 Gabrielle Benacka '16 [1-2]
Eleanor Christianson '19 [3-6]
Jack Wall '17 [7]
Varsity Ella Brunsman '16 [1-7] Grace Van Dellen '18 [1-4]
Gabrielle Benacka '16 [5-7]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Foss Kerker '17 [1-4]
Henry Johnson '18 [5-7]		 Jason Davis '17 [1-4]
Frank Heaney '16 [5-7]
Varsity Foss Kerker '17 Frank Heaney '16
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School No Show Steve Franklin '18
Varsity Leigh Marker '17 [1-3]
Brian Olson '18 [4-7]		 No Show [1-3]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Emma Aubuchon '19 No Show
Blue Wiley Hunt '19 Sophia Borrell '16

Conditions — 04/18/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1012.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From W (274°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1012.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →