Fall Conference Regatta #5

HostLake Minnetonka Sailing School
Date10/24/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southwest High School	Varsity 1	20	23	43
2	Mounds Park Academy	Varsity	20	30	50
3	Wayzata High School	Blue 1	24	27	51
4	Wayzata High School	Blue 2	48	23	71
5	Benilde St Margarets	Red	49	33	82
6	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 3	51	36	87
7	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	53	69	122
8	Southwest High School	Varsity 2	58	71	129
9	Orono High School	Varsity	77	54	131
10	Providence Academy	Varsity	45	101	146
11	Edina High School	Hornets 1	88	69	157
12	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	75	86	161
13	Washburn High School	Varsity 2	84	83	167
14	Hudson	Raiders	99	83	182
15	Washburn High School	Varsity 1	86	98	184
16	Stillwater High School	Varsity	90	108	198
17	Washburn High School	Varsity 3	118	93	211
18	Edina High School	Hornets 2	118	110	228

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Mounds Park Academy	Varsity	1	1	2	4	2	7	3	20	Josh Sullivan '16 Clara Brown '18
Southwest High School	Varsity 1	2	2	1	3	1	9	2	20	Jason Davis '17 Madison Mott '17
Wayzata High School	Blue 1	4	3	5	2	4	2	4	24	Jackson Connell '17 Brianna Misk '17
Providence Academy	Varsity	8	4	7	5	9	11	1	45	Will Hedberg '18 Amanda Ihle '18
Wayzata High School	Blue 2	3	DNF	6	1	3	10	6	48	Charlie Hicks '16 Theo Odermann '20
Benilde St Margarets	Red	9	10	3	6	10	1	10	49	Alex Honke '16 [1-7] Cameron Davidson '19 [1-2, 5-7] Victor Butkova '19 [3-4]
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 3	5	6	4	12	5	4	15	51	Sydney Maxwell '17 Kendyll Vandlik '20
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	7	7	10	13	6	3	7	53	Mike Johnson '17 Sonja Zbinden '18
Southwest High School	Varsity 2	14	9	8	9	8	5	5	58	Lauritz (Lolo) Young-Walser '17 Teddy Damm '17
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	6	8	DNF	DNS	7	8	8	75	Graham Ness '19 Alexander Witcraft '18
Orono High School	Varsity	10	5	13	7	13	13	16	77	Seamus Hendrickson '20 [1-7] Dominic Serino '19 [1-2, 5-7] Marshall Johnson '20 [3-4]
Washburn High School	Varsity 2	13	14	14	11	11	12	9	84	Mikolaj (Cole) Spachowicz '18 [1-7] Grover Warner '19 [1-2] Kailey Everhart '18 [3-7]
Washburn High School	Varsity 1	16	13	16	8	14	6	13	86	Tighe Case '18 Ben Ragus '20
Edina High School	Hornets 1	12	12	9	14	12	17	12	88	George Moore '20 Kate Higgins '18
Stillwater High School	Varsity	11	11	12	10	16	16	14	90	Brian Olson '18 Joe Sanderson '18
Hudson	Raiders	15	15	11	16	17	14	11	99	Adam Tronnes '20 Oscar Nemitz '20
Washburn High School	Varsity 3	DNF	16	15	15	18	18	17	118	Sean Mcaneney '20 Wyatt Sklaney '18
Edina High School	Hornets 2	DNF	17	17	17	15	15	18	118	Nicole Guiliani '20 Ellie Miller '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Southwest High School	Varsity 1	2	5	2	1	3	3	7	23	Simon Rothman '17 Remi Clark '20
Wayzata High School	Blue 2	3	2	11	2	1	1	3	23	Emma Aubuchon '19 Mckenna Miller '16
Wayzata High School	Blue 1	4	1	5	4	2	5	6	27	Wiley Hunt '19 [1-7] Anna Brew '17 [1-2] Amanda Forsans '16 [3-7]
Mounds Park Academy	Varsity	7	4	3	3	6	6	1	30	Toby Sullivan '19 Morgan Termaat '18
Benilde St Margarets	Red	1	6	1	BKD	8	8	4	33	Joey Simpson '17 Nicholas Backes '16
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 3	5	3	7	8	9	2	2	36	Matthew Kickhafer '19 William Sweeney '20
Orono High School	Varsity	10	11	6	5	5	9	8	54	Rachel Bartel '20 [1-7] Archie Bolgar '19 [1-4] Marshall Johnson '20 [5-7]
Edina High School	Hornets 1	6	7	13	10	15	13	5	69	David Kunau '17 Christian Kunau '17
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	12	10	8	15	4	4	16	69	Garrett Moen '19 Connor Wacker '19
Southwest High School	Varsity 2	9	8	15	11	7	12	9	71	Tommy Jagielski '18 [1-7] Henry Chadbourn '18 [1-2, 5-7] Maximillian Washburn '18 [3-4]
Hudson	Raiders	8	9	9	13	11	18	15	83	Nathan Bogel '20 Katlyn Boisjoli '17
Washburn High School	Varsity 2	11	14	10	9	18	11	10	83	Chip Specker '19 Joshua Shepherd '15
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	DNF	12	12	7	10	15	11	86	Michael Dowson '19 Rex Frazier '20
Washburn High School	Varsity 3	DNF	18	4	16	17	7	12	93	Ed Shipp '19 Grover Warner '19
Washburn High School	Varsity 1	OCS	17	DNS	6	13	10	14	98	Benedict Sklaney '16 Gints Pelecis '21
Providence Academy	Varsity	13	13	14	17	12	14	18	101	William Walcher '17 [1-7] Zach Paulson '20 [1-2] Victor Butkova '19 [3-7]
Stillwater High School	Varsity	14	16	16	14	14	17	17	108	Maggie Raedeke '18 Katie Wallace '18
Edina High School	Hornets 2	15	15	17	18	16	16	13	110	Marit Lebakken '19 Clare Leeper '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Benilde St Margarets Red	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Edina High School Hornets 1	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Edina High School Hornets 2	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Hudson Raiders	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Minnetonka High School Skippers 3	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Mounds Park Academy Varsity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Orono High School Varsity	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Providence Academy Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Southwest High School Varsity 1	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Southwest High School Varsity 2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Stillwater High School Varsity	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Washburn High School Varsity 1	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Washburn High School Varsity 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Washburn High School Varsity 3	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Wayzata High School Blue 1	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Wayzata High School Blue 2	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Benilde St Margarets Red	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Edina High School Hornets 1	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Edina High School Hornets 2	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Hudson Raiders	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Minnetonka High School Skippers 3	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Mounds Park Academy Varsity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Orono High School Varsity	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Providence Academy Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Southwest High School Varsity 1	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Southwest High School Varsity 2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Stillwater High School Varsity	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Washburn High School Varsity 1	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Washburn High School Varsity 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Washburn High School Varsity 3	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Wayzata High School Blue 1	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Wayzata High School Blue 2	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Benilde St Margarets	Alex Honke '16 [1-7]	Cameron Davidson '19 [1-2, 5-7] Victor Butkova '19 [3-4]
Red	Joey Simpson '17	Nicholas Backes '16
Edina High School	George Moore '20	Kate Higgins '18
Hornets 1	David Kunau '17	Christian Kunau '17
Edina High School	Nicole Guiliani '20	Ellie Miller '19
Hornets 2	Marit Lebakken '19	Clare Leeper '19
Hudson	Adam Tronnes '20	Oscar Nemitz '20
Raiders	Nathan Bogel '20	Katlyn Boisjoli '17
Minnetonka High School	Graham Ness '19	Alexander Witcraft '18
Skippers 1	Michael Dowson '19	Rex Frazier '20
Minnetonka High School	Mike Johnson '17	Sonja Zbinden '18
Skippers 2	Garrett Moen '19	Connor Wacker '19
Minnetonka High School	Sydney Maxwell '17	Kendyll Vandlik '20
Skippers 3	Matthew Kickhafer '19	William Sweeney '20
Mounds Park Academy	Josh Sullivan '16	Clara Brown '18
Varsity	Toby Sullivan '19	Morgan Termaat '18
Orono High School	Seamus Hendrickson '20 [1-7]	Dominic Serino '19 [1-2, 5-7] Marshall Johnson '20 [3-4]
Varsity	Rachel Bartel '20 [1-7]	Archie Bolgar '19 [1-4] Marshall Johnson '20 [5-7]
Providence Academy	Will Hedberg '18	Amanda Ihle '18
Varsity	William Walcher '17 [1-7]	Zach Paulson '20 [1-2] Victor Butkova '19 [3-7]
Southwest High School	Jason Davis '17	Madison Mott '17
Varsity 1	Simon Rothman '17	Remi Clark '20
Southwest High School	Lauritz (Lolo) Young-Walser '17	Teddy Damm '17
Varsity 2	Tommy Jagielski '18 [1-7]	Henry Chadbourn '18 [1-2, 5-7] Maximillian Washburn '18 [3-4]
Stillwater High School	Brian Olson '18	Joe Sanderson '18
Varsity	Maggie Raedeke '18	Katie Wallace '18
Washburn High School	Tighe Case '18	Ben Ragus '20
Varsity 1	Benedict Sklaney '16	Gints Pelecis '21
Washburn High School	Mikolaj (Cole) Spachowicz '18 [1-7]	Grover Warner '19 [1-2] Kailey Everhart '18 [3-7]
Varsity 2	Chip Specker '19	Joshua Shepherd '15
Washburn High School	Sean Mcaneney '20	Wyatt Sklaney '18
Varsity 3	Ed Shipp '19	Grover Warner '19
Wayzata High School	Jackson Connell '17	Brianna Misk '17
Blue 1	Wiley Hunt '19 [1-7]	Anna Brew '17 [1-2] Amanda Forsans '16 [3-7]
Wayzata High School	Charlie Hicks '16	Theo Odermann '20
Blue 2	Emma Aubuchon '19	Mckenna Miller '16

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Fall Conference Regatta #5

Division A

Division B

From the notes