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MN - Conference #3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 1 8 14 22
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 18 7 25
3 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 14 23 37
4 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 3 38 28 66
5 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 42 26 68
6 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 45 28 73
7 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 35 44 79
8 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 44 40 84
9 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 36 49 85
10 Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 60 31 91
11 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 45 48 93
12 St. Croix Prep St. Croix Prep Varsity 31 67 98
13 Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 61 67 128
14 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 55 75 130
15 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 2 70 64 134
16 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 79 69 148
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 1 2 2 2 1 1 8 Jackson Connell '17
Brianna Misk '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 1 3 5 3 2 14 Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17
Garrett Moen '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 4 1 1 2 10 18 Graham Ness '19
Sydney Maxwell '17
St. Croix Prep St. Croix Prep Varsity 7 7 6 5 6 31 Adam Tronnes '20 [1-5]
Oscar Nemitz '20 [1-2, 5]
Peter Zajec '20 [3-4]
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 5 6 8 12 4 35 Mikolaj (Cole) Spachowicz '18
Gabrielle Ritacco '18
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 6 14 7 6 3 36 Seamus Hendrickson '20
Marshall Johnson '20
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 3 10 8 4 11 5 38 Erich Pinske '18
Amanda Forsans '16
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 9 4 13 7 9 42 Teddy Noun '16
Stephanie Daub '16
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 13 5 14 4 8 44 Mike Johnson '17
Kendyll Vandlik '20
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 3 9 DSQ 9 7 45 Solomon Dworsky '17
Howard Alton Iv '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 12 11 3 8 11 45 Tommy Jagielski '18 [1-5]
Henry Chadbourn '18 [1-2]
Mitchell Schroeder '19 [3-5]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 8 10 12 13 12 55 Emily Stanley '17
Laurel Schreier '17
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 14 13 10 10 13 60 Jack Wall '17
Nicholas Backes '16
Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 11 12 9 14 15 61 Marit Lebakken '19
Clare Leeper '19
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 2 15 15 11 15 14 70 Victor Butkova '19
Jacob Sparber '20
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 16 16 15 16 16 79 Zach Paulson '20
Julia Ward '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1 2 1 2 1 7 Matthew Kickhafer '19
Rex Frazier '20
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 1 5 1 5 1 2 14 Wiley Hunt '19
Anna Brew '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 6 4 3 5 5 23 Mike Johnson '17
Luke Brady '19
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 1 3 5 8 6 4 26 Simon Rothman '17
Remi Clark '20
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 2 2 3 11 4 8 28 Archie Bolgar '19
Bernard Kaiser Iii '17
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 3 4 11 2 8 3 28 Henry Jaffray '18
Dominic Serino '19
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 7 6 4 3 11 31 Will Hedberg '18
William Walcher '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 10 8 7 9 6 40 William Sweeney '20
Connor Wacker '19
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 9 9 9 7 10 44 Sean Mcaneney '20
Gints Pelecis '21
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 11 10 6 14 7 48 Chip Specker '19
Maximillian Washburn '18
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 8 7 12 13 9 49 Austin Charrier '17
Kristin Berg '17
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Blue 2 14 14 10 10 16 64 Theo Odermann '20
Harry Penner '15
St. Croix Prep St. Croix Prep Varsity 12 12 14 16 13 67 Nathan Bogel '20
Katlyn Boisjoli '17
Edina High School Edina High School Hornets 13 15 13 12 14 67 Nicole Guiliani '20
Emma Netzer '20
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 15 16 15 11 12 69 Max Penner '18
Kent Penner '18
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 16 13 16 15 15 75 Karan Jain '19
Jose Verela '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity11111
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Hornets44444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 11818181818
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 21212121212
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 333333
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity99999
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 177777
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 21313131313
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 366666
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity1616161616
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 122222
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 255555
St. Croix PrepSt. Croix Prep Varsity88888
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity1717171717
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue 11414141414
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue 21111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity11111
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Hornets44444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 11818181818
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 21212121212
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 333333
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity99999
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 177777
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 21313131313
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity 366666
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity1616161616
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 122222
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity 255555
St. Croix PrepSt. Croix Prep Varsity88888
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity1717171717
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue 11414141414
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Blue 21111111111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Zach Paulson '20 Julia Ward '19
Varsity Max Penner '18 Kent Penner '18
Edina High School Edina High School Marit Lebakken '19 Clare Leeper '19
Hornets Nicole Guiliani '20 Emma Netzer '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Graham Ness '19 Sydney Maxwell '17
Skippers 1 Matthew Kickhafer '19 Rex Frazier '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mike Johnson '17 Kendyll Vandlik '20
Skippers 2 William Sweeney '20 Connor Wacker '19
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 Garrett Moen '19
Skippers 3 Mike Johnson '17 Luke Brady '19
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Emily Stanley '17 Laurel Schreier '17
Varsity Karan Jain '19 Jose Verela '19
Orono High School Orono High School Seamus Hendrickson '20 Marshall Johnson '20
Varsity 1 Austin Charrier '17 Kristin Berg '17
Orono High School Orono High School Solomon Dworsky '17 Howard Alton Iv '17
Varsity 2 Archie Bolgar '19 Bernard Kaiser Iii '17
Orono High School Orono High School Erich Pinske '18 Amanda Forsans '16
Varsity 3 Henry Jaffray '18 Dominic Serino '19
Providence Academy Providence Academy Jack Wall '17 Nicholas Backes '16
Varsity Will Hedberg '18 William Walcher '17
Southwest High School Southwest High School Teddy Noun '16 Stephanie Daub '16
Varsity 1 Simon Rothman '17 Remi Clark '20
Southwest High School Southwest High School Tommy Jagielski '18 [1-5] Henry Chadbourn '18 [1-2]
Mitchell Schroeder '19 [3-5]
Varsity 2 Chip Specker '19 Maximillian Washburn '18
St. Croix Prep St. Croix Prep Adam Tronnes '20 [1-5] Oscar Nemitz '20 [1-2, 5]
Peter Zajec '20 [3-4]
Varsity Nathan Bogel '20 Katlyn Boisjoli '17
Washburn High School Washburn High School Mikolaj (Cole) Spachowicz '18 Gabrielle Ritacco '18
Varsity Sean Mcaneney '20 Gints Pelecis '21
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Jackson Connell '17 Brianna Misk '17
Blue 1 Wiley Hunt '19 Anna Brew '17
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Victor Butkova '19 Jacob Sparber '20
Blue 2 Theo Odermann '20 Harry Penner '15

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1032.1 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From NE (49°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1032.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.27 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →