Minnesota Fall Conference #2

HostSt. Croix Sailing School
Date09/19/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Mounds Park Academy	Varsity	8	12	20
2	Orono High School	Varsity 2	6	26	32
3	Southwest High School	Varsity	20	18	38
4	Orono High School	Varsity 1	31	11	42
5	Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	33	17	50
6	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	27	26	53
7	Mounds View High School	Mustangs	14	41	55
8	White Bear Lake High School	Bears	37	23	60
9	Chanhassen High School	Varsity	35	35	70
10	Edina High School	Hornets	36	36	72
11	Hudson	Raiders	27	49	76
12	Benilde St Margarets	Varsity	41	37	78
13	Woodbury HS	Varsity	49	34	83

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Orono High School	Varsity 2	1	1	3	1	6	Rachel Bartel '20 Kristin Berg '17
Mounds Park Academy	Varsity	2	3	1	2	8	Josh Sullivan '16 Clara Brown '18
Mounds View High School	Mustangs	4	5	2	3	14	Alexander Bonsager '20 Charlie Wagner '16
Southwest High School	Varsity	9	2	4	5	20	Simon Rothman '17 Remi Clark '20
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	3	8	12	4	27	Graham Ness '19 Sydney Maxwell '17
Hudson	Raiders	8	7	6	6	27	Adam Tronnes '20 Peter Zajec '20
Orono High School	Varsity 1	7	4	8	12	31	Archie Bolgar '19 [1-4] Erik Sundberg '17 [1-2] Dominic Serino '19 [3-4]
Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	6	10	7	10	33	Izzi Boo '16 Annika Hsu '17
Chanhassen High School	Varsity	5	6	13	11	35	Lucas Haarstad '17 [1-4] Brianna Misk '17 [1-2] Elise Krauska '19 [3-4]
Edina High School	Hornets	10	9	9	8	36	Tommy Jagielski '18 Gabrielle Ritacco '18
White Bear Lake High School	Bears	12	11	5	9	37	Ethan Staruck '19 [1-2] Robbie Dresen '25 [3-4] Jessie Dougherty '20 [1-2] Ethan Staruck '19 [3-4]
Benilde St Margarets	Varsity	11	12	11	7	41	Jack Wall '17 Amanda Ihle '18
Woodbury HS	Varsity	13	13	10	13	49	Nathan Bogel '20 Katlyn Boisjoli '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Orono High School	Varsity 1	2	4	2	3	11	Erich Pinske '18 Amanda Forsans '16
Mounds Park Academy	Varsity	1	1	8	2	12	Toby Sullivan '19 Karan Jain '19
Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	6	2	1	8	17	Genna Viggiano '18 Courtney Clark '17
Southwest High School	Varsity	8	3	6	1	18	Lauritz (Lolo) Young-Walser '17 Madison Mott '17
White Bear Lake High School	Bears	4	6	7	6	23	Olivia Staruck '16 Dana Howe '16
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	3	5	DNS	4	26	Mike Johnson '17 Kendyll Vandlik '20
Orono High School	Varsity 2	5	7	3	11	26	Seamus Hendrickson '20 Marshall Johnson '20
Woodbury HS	Varsity	13	8	4	9	34	Alexander Witcraft '18 William Sweeney '20
Chanhassen High School	Varsity	9	10	11	5	35	Wiley Hunt '19 [1-4] Anna Brew '17 [1-2] David Mehr '20 [3-4]
Edina High School	Hornets	11	9	9	7	36	David Kunau '17 Christian Kunau '17
Benilde St Margarets	Varsity	7	12	5	13	37	William Walcher '17 Nicholas Backes '16
Mounds View High School	Mustangs	10	11	10	10	41	Acadia Hegedus '18 Morgan Termaat '18
Hudson	Raiders	12	13	12	12	49	Davin Dunleap '16 Oscar Nemitz '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Benilde St Margarets Varsity	12	12	12	12
Chanhassen High School Varsity	5	5	5	5
Edina High School Hornets	10	10	10	10
Hudson Raiders	9	9	9	9
Mahtomedi Zephyrs	8	8	8	8
Minnetonka High School Skippers	1	1	1	1
Mounds Park Academy Varsity	3	3	3	3
Mounds View High School Mustangs	13	13	13	13
Orono High School Varsity 1	14	14	14	14
Orono High School Varsity 2	11	11	11	11
Southwest High School Varsity	4	4	4	4
White Bear Lake High School Bears	7	7	7	7
Woodbury HS Varsity	2	2	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Benilde St Margarets Varsity	12	12	12	12
Chanhassen High School Varsity	5	5	5	5
Edina High School Hornets	10	10	10	10
Hudson Raiders	9	9	9	9
Mahtomedi Zephyrs	8	8	8	8
Minnetonka High School Skippers	1	1	1	1
Mounds Park Academy Varsity	3	3	3	3
Mounds View High School Mustangs	13	13	13	13
Orono High School Varsity 1	14	14	14	14
Orono High School Varsity 2	11	11	11	11
Southwest High School Varsity	4	4	4	4
White Bear Lake High School Bears	7	7	7	7
Woodbury HS Varsity	2	2	2	2

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Benilde St Margarets	Jack Wall '17	Amanda Ihle '18
Varsity	William Walcher '17	Nicholas Backes '16
Chanhassen High School	Lucas Haarstad '17 [1-4]	Brianna Misk '17 [1-2] Elise Krauska '19 [3-4]
Varsity	Wiley Hunt '19 [1-4]	Anna Brew '17 [1-2] David Mehr '20 [3-4]
Edina High School	Tommy Jagielski '18	Gabrielle Ritacco '18
Hornets	David Kunau '17	Christian Kunau '17
Hudson	Adam Tronnes '20	Peter Zajec '20
Raiders	Davin Dunleap '16	Oscar Nemitz '20
Mahtomedi	Izzi Boo '16	Annika Hsu '17
Zephyrs	Genna Viggiano '18	Courtney Clark '17
Minnetonka High School	Graham Ness '19	Sydney Maxwell '17
Skippers	Mike Johnson '17	Kendyll Vandlik '20
Mounds Park Academy	Josh Sullivan '16	Clara Brown '18
Varsity	Toby Sullivan '19	Karan Jain '19
Mounds View High School	Alexander Bonsager '20	Charlie Wagner '16
Mustangs	Acadia Hegedus '18	Morgan Termaat '18
Orono High School	Archie Bolgar '19 [1-4]	Erik Sundberg '17 [1-2] Dominic Serino '19 [3-4]
Varsity 1	Erich Pinske '18	Amanda Forsans '16
Orono High School	Rachel Bartel '20	Kristin Berg '17
Varsity 2	Seamus Hendrickson '20	Marshall Johnson '20
Southwest High School	Simon Rothman '17	Remi Clark '20
Varsity	Lauritz (Lolo) Young-Walser '17	Madison Mott '17
White Bear Lake High School	Ethan Staruck '19 [1-2] Robbie Dresen '25 [3-4]	Jessie Dougherty '20 [1-2] Ethan Staruck '19 [3-4]
Bears	Olivia Staruck '16	Dana Howe '16
Woodbury HS	Nathan Bogel '20	Katlyn Boisjoli '17
Varsity	Alexander Witcraft '18	William Sweeney '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Minnesota Fall Conference #2

Division A

Division B

From the notes