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LMSS Team Race JV/Mixed

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Mixed 10–2
2 Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs 9–2
3 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 9–2
4 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 5–6
5 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 3–7
6 Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 2–9
7 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,024 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 42 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.527 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.12 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Benilde St Margarets
Mixed		51.59
school −0.51		Riley Norman / Aaron Wachowiak 1.08
Walker Mullin / Clare Leeper 1.21 9–1
Alex Saffert / Trey Brixius -0.26 9–1
Walker Mullin / Trey Brixius 1.03 1–1
Alex Saffert / Clare Leeper -0.12 1–1		42%10–2 (83%)+5.0
2Mounds View High School
Mustangs		22.71Morgan Termaat / Katie Sheldon
Matt Dresen / Nick Lorentz
Hank Seum / Faith Christensen 5–1
Hank Seum / Luke Schmidt 5–1		63%10–2 (83%)+2.4
3Minnetonka High School
Skippers 1		14.05
school −0.39, home +0.10		Lucia Loosbrock / Evan Komis
Greg Bittle / Beth Walsh
Henry Westlind / Austin Johnson 1.07		85%10–2 (83%)−0.2
4Minnetonka High School
Skippers 2		32.50
school −0.39, home +0.10		Garrett Moen / Tristan Wischmeier 0.46
Khan Dickel / Katie Hanley
Max Sigel / Madeline Wilson		59%5–7 (42%)−2.1
5Wayzata High School
Mixed		42.01
school −0.07		Kate Ness / Grace Bray
Conner Shore / Mei Vickery
Dominic Serino / Paige Kurtenbach		50%3–9 (25%)−3.0
6Edina High School
Varsity		61.00
school +0.16		Finn Tait / Hayden Graff
Wyatt Tait / Nina Gabrielson
Madeline Netzer / Virginia Higgins		31%2–10 (17%)−1.7
7Southwest High School
Varsity		70.37
school +0.14		David Carlson / Aiden Higgins
Cole Woerner / Alex Chiesa
Paul Wang / Gunner Johnson		20%2–10 (17%)−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Benilde St Margarets Mixed1.594.5010–25.0+2.917.5<1%
2Mounds View High School Mustangs2.714.3310–27.6+1.612.010%
3Minnetonka High School Skippers 14.053.9210–210.2−0.130.073%
7Southwest High School Varsity0.370.042–102.4−0.330.174%
4Minnetonka High School Skippers 22.501.425–77.1−1.091.395%
6Edina High School Varsity1.00-0.162–103.7−1.161.094%
5Wayzata High School Mixed2.010.363–96.0−1.662.799%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Riley NormanBenilde St Margarets1.084.0010–25.0+2.917.5<1%
Alex SaffertBenilde St Margarets-0.262.6610–25.0+2.917.5<1%
Khan DickelMinnetonka High School1.05-0.045–77.1−1.091.395%
Kate NessWayzata High School1.10-0.563–96.0−1.662.799%
Conner ShoreWayzata High School0.52-1.133–96.0−1.662.799%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Mounds View High School MustangsBenilde St Margarets Mixed68%
12Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Edina High School Varsity76%
13Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Wayzata High School Mixed84%
14Mounds View High School MustangsSouthwest High School Varsity87%
15Benilde St Margarets MixedMinnetonka High School Skippers 113%upset
16Wayzata High School MixedEdina High School Varsity69%
17Mounds View High School MustangsMinnetonka High School Skippers 255%
18Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Southwest High School Varsity95%
19Benilde St Margarets MixedWayzata High School Mixed43%upset
110Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 278%
111Mounds View High School MustangsEdina High School Varsity80%
112Benilde St Margarets MixedSouthwest High School Varsity73%
113Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Edina High School Varsity92%
114Benilde St Margarets MixedMinnetonka High School Skippers 234%upset
115Wayzata High School MixedSouthwest High School Varsity78%
116Benilde St Margarets MixedEdina High School Varsity62%
117Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Southwest High School Varsity84%
118Mounds View High School MustangsWayzata High School Mixed63%
119Edina High School VarsitySouthwest High School Varsity62%
120Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Mounds View High School Mustangs74%
121Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Wayzata High School Mixed59%
222Benilde St Margarets MixedWayzata High School Mixed41%upset
223Mounds View High School MustangsMinnetonka High School Skippers 254%
224Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Southwest High School Varsity95%
225Wayzata High School MixedEdina High School Varsity69%
226Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Benilde St Margarets Mixed87%
227Mounds View High School MustangsSouthwest High School Varsity86%
228Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Wayzata High School Mixed59%
229Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Edina High School Varsity92%
230Benilde St Margarets MixedSouthwest High School Varsity71%
231Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Minnetonka High School Skippers 277%
232Mounds View High School MustangsWayzata High School Mixed63%
233Benilde St Margarets MixedEdina High School Varsity60%
234Mounds View High School MustangsMinnetonka High School Skippers 126%upset
235Benilde St Margarets MixedMinnetonka High School Skippers 232%upset
236Edina High School VarsitySouthwest High School Varsity62%
237Benilde St Margarets MixedMounds View High School Mustangs28%upset
238Minnetonka High School Skippers 2Edina High School Varsity76%
239Southwest High School VarsityWayzata High School Mixed22%upset
240Mounds View High School MustangsEdina High School Varsity79%
241Minnetonka High School Skippers 1Wayzata High School Mixed83%
242Southwest High School VarsityMinnetonka High School Skippers 216%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-3-6 def. Benilde St Margarets Mixed 2-4-5
2 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-3 def. Edina High School Varsity 4-5-6
3 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Wayzata High School Mixed 4-5-6
4 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Varsity 4-5-6
5 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-3 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 4-5-6
6 Wayzata High School Mixed 1-2-3 def. Edina High School Varsity 4-5-6
7 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-4-5
8 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Varsity 4-5-6
9 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-5 def. Wayzata High School Mixed 3-4-6
10 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-4 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-5-6
11 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Edina High School Varsity 4-5-6
12 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-4 def. Southwest High School Varsity 3-5-6
13 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Edina High School Varsity 4-5-6
14 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3-4-5
15 Wayzata High School Mixed 1-2-4 def. Southwest High School Varsity 3-5-6
16 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-3 def. Edina High School Varsity 4-5-6
17 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Varsity 4-5-6
18 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-4 def. Wayzata High School Mixed 3-5-6
19 Edina High School Varsity 1-2-6 def. Southwest High School Varsity 3-4-5
20 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 2-3-5 def. Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-4-6 DNF
21 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-6 def. Wayzata High School Mixed 3-4-5
22 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-5 def. Wayzata High School Mixed 3-4-6
23 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4-5-6
24 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-4 def. Southwest High School Varsity 3-5-6
25 Wayzata High School Mixed 1-2-4 def. Edina High School Varsity 3-5-6
26 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-4-5 def. Benilde St Margarets Mixed 2-3-6
27 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Varsity 4-5-6
28 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 1-2-6 def. Wayzata High School Mixed 3-4-5
29 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Edina High School Varsity 4-5-6
30 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Varsity 4-5-6
31 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 1-2-3 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4-5-6
32 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-5 def. Wayzata High School Mixed 3-4-6
33 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-6 def. Edina High School Varsity 3-4-5
34 Mounds View High School Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 3-4-5
35 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-3-6 def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-4-5
36 Edina High School Varsity 1-2-3 def. Southwest High School Varsity 4-5-6
37 Benilde St Margarets Mixed 1-2-4 def. Mounds View High School Mustangs 3-5-6
38 Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 2-3-4 def. Edina High School Varsity 1-5-6
39 Southwest High School Varsity def. Wayzata High School Mixed
40 Mounds View High School Mustangs def. Edina High School Varsity
41 Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 def. Wayzata High School Mixed
42 Southwest High School Varsity def. Minnetonka High School Skippers 2

Conditions — 05/19/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.8 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine3.4 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1014.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Minnetonka — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnetonka in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →