Navigate

2016 Ice Breaker

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 47 34 81
2 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 40 43 83
3 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 31 52 83
4 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 18 74 92
5 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 49 44 93
6 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 59 45 104
7 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 72 52 124
8 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 86 41 127
9 Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 82 73 155
10 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 79 85 164
11 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 70 95 165
12 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Mixed 95 77 172
13 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 79 108 187
14 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 109 90 199
15 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 80 126 206
16 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 123 88 211
17 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 110 129 239
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 1 2 6 2 2 1 3 1 18 Samuel Bartel '18
Erik Sundberg '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 9 4 3 1 3 4 4 3 31 Lily Loosbrock '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Mike Johnson '17 [5-6]
Mike Johnson '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Lily Loosbrock '17 [5-6]
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 3 8 2 6 10 2 5 4 40 Allie Cahn '16
Will Davies '18
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 11 5 5 4 11 8 1 2 47 Colleen Baumann '17 [1-8]
Alec Wyers '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Lillian Nemeth '18 [3-6]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 3 7 8 4 OCS 2 5 49 William Curtiss '16 [1-8]
Su Yardimci '18 [1-6]
William Porter '18 [7-8]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 13 7 1 3 1 6 12 16 59 James Wagner '17 [1-6]
Owen Patterson '19 [7-8]
Gloria Kevliciute '17 [1-2]
Hanna Mularczyk '17 [3-4]
Caroline Bernet '17 [5-8]
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 8 9 4 5 15 9 6 14 70 Jemima Korbel '18
Alexander Cato '19
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 4 1 9 15 9 11 8 15 72 Ray Groble '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Logan O'Connor '17 [5-6]
Tiernaur Anderson '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 5 11 14 10 6 13 7 13 79 Han-Ray Jahn '17
Lilly Allen '19
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 16 6 8 9 7 3 OCS 12 79 Alex Fowkes '16 [1-8]
Katie Lowenbaum '17 [1-2]
Ben Spring '18 [3-8]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 12 12 13 12 5 5 11 10 80 Rory Neenan '18 [1-8]
Natalie Shilati '16 [1-2]
Frank Glasso '18 [3-8]
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 7 14 10 14 12 10 9 6 82 Sherman Thompson '18
Mitchell Thompson '19
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 6 10 11 16 8 RAF 10 7 86 Spencer Keenan '17
W. Quinn Keenan '19
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Mixed 14 13 12 7 16 7 15 11 95 Liz Obermaier '17 [1-7]
Amanda Williams '17 [8]
Amanda Williams '17 [1-4, 7]
Brian Liu '18 [5-6]
Liz Obermaier '17 [8]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 10 17 16 17 13 15 13 8 109 Andrew Lestingi '17
Caroline Schmidt '17
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 15 16 17 11 14 12 16 9 110 Harry Bearrows '18 [1-8]
Quinn Shaughnessy '17 [1-2]
Natalia Wright '17 [3-6]
Garrett Javors '17 [7-8]
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 17 15 15 13 RAF 14 14 17 123 Preston Anderson '18
Laurel Schenkman '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 5 9 7 2 2 1 7 1 34 Phoebe Lincoln '16 [1-8]
Matteo Torquati '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Emerson Wright '19 [3-6]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 2 6 3 9 8 2 4 7 41 Dylan Cotter '18
Caroline O'Malley '17
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 1 1 2 11 14 7 2 5 43 Mark Davies '16 [1-2]
Marleigh Belsley '19 [3-8]
Leah Peluchiwski '16 [1-2, 5-8]
Mark Davies '16 [3-4]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 7 2 4 3 3 3 RAF 4 44 Nicholas Elsasser '18
Connor Sheridan '18
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 3 5 14 12 1 6 1 3 45 Peter Odom '17
Becca Rose '17
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 4 3 6 7 4 8 DNF 2 52 Bridget Groble '17
Matthew Alfano '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 6 4 8 4 7 9 6 8 52 Carl Eaton '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Graham Ness '19 [5-6]
Graham Ness '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Carl Eaton '17 [5-6]
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 9 OCS 10 1 10 10 9 6 73 David Phlamm '18 [1-8]
Cameron Wright '18 [1-2]
Evan Fallon '18 [3-8]
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 12 12 5 6 15 4 11 9 74 Erich Pinske '18 [1-2, 8]
Seamus Hendrickson '20 [3-6]
Rachel Bartel '20 [7]
Seamus Hendrickson '20 [1-2]
Rachel Bartel '20 [3-4, 8]
Erich Pinske '18 [5-7]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Mixed RAF 7 11 8 6 5 12 10 77 Harrison George '18 [1-4, 8]
Luuk Schmit '18 [5-7]
Luuk Schmit '18 [1-2, 8]
Brian Liu '18 [3-4]
Harrison George '18 [5-7]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 RAF 11 1 15 5 OCS 5 12 85 Lolly Vasilion '18
Matthew Trunsky '17
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 10 8 13 13 12 11 10 11 88 No Show
Grayson Hunter '19
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 RAF 13 12 5 9 12 3 DNF 90 Bridget Falkenhayn '19
Annie Mollman '17
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 13 15 9 10 13 14 8 13 95 No Show
Aidan Lallas '18
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 11 14 OCS 14 11 13 13 14 108 Will Robinson '18
Rowan Henke '17
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 RAF 10 15 16 16 15 DNS DNS 126 Will Flocco '16 [1-2]
Natalie Norton '18 [3-8]
Natalie Norton '18 [1-2]
Natalie Shilati '16 [3-8]
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 8 16 DNF 17 DNF 16 DNS DNS 129 Eleanor Tung-Haan '18 [1-8]
Garrett Javors '17 [1-2]
Allison Lang '18 [3-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity22446688
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons1717224466
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity Mixed33557799
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity4466881010
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars5577991111
Hinsdale Central High SchoolHinsdale Central High School Varsity668810101212
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts779911111313
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity88101012121414
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity99111113131515
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 11010121214141616
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 21111131315151717
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers12121414161611
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 113131515171722
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 2141416161133
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity151517172244
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack1616113355
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity11335577

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity11335577
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons1616113355
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity Mixed22446688
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity33557799
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars4466881010
Hinsdale Central High SchoolHinsdale Central High School Varsity5577991111
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts668810101212
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity779911111313
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity88101012121414
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 199111113131515
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 21010121214141616
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers1111131315151717
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 112121414161611
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 213131515171722
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity141416161133
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack151517172244
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity1717224466
School / Team SkipperCrew
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Preston Anderson '18 Laurel Schenkman '18
Varsity No Show Grayson Hunter '19
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Liz Obermaier '17 [1-7]
Amanda Williams '17 [8]		 Amanda Williams '17 [1-4, 7]
Brian Liu '18 [5-6]
Liz Obermaier '17 [8]
Varsity Mixed Harrison George '18 [1-4, 8]
Luuk Schmit '18 [5-7]		 Luuk Schmit '18 [1-2, 8]
Brian Liu '18 [3-4]
Harrison George '18 [5-7]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Han-Ray Jahn '17 Lilly Allen '19
Varsity Will Robinson '18 Rowan Henke '17
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Harry Bearrows '18 [1-8] Quinn Shaughnessy '17 [1-2]
Natalia Wright '17 [3-6]
Garrett Javors '17 [7-8]
Friars Eleanor Tung-Haan '18 [1-8] Garrett Javors '17 [1-2]
Allison Lang '18 [3-8]
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Sherman Thompson '18 Mitchell Thompson '19
Varsity David Phlamm '18 [1-8] Cameron Wright '18 [1-2]
Evan Fallon '18 [3-8]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School William Curtiss '16 [1-8] Su Yardimci '18 [1-6]
William Porter '18 [7-8]
Scouts Nicholas Elsasser '18 Connor Sheridan '18
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Jemima Korbel '18 Alexander Cato '19
Varsity No Show Aidan Lallas '18
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Allie Cahn '16 Will Davies '18
Varsity Mark Davies '16 [1-2]
Marleigh Belsley '19 [3-8]		 Leah Peluchiwski '16 [1-2, 5-8]
Mark Davies '16 [3-4]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Rory Neenan '18 [1-8] Natalie Shilati '16 [1-2]
Frank Glasso '18 [3-8]
Ramblers 1 Will Flocco '16 [1-2]
Natalie Norton '18 [3-8]		 Natalie Norton '18 [1-2]
Natalie Shilati '16 [3-8]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Andrew Lestingi '17 Caroline Schmidt '17
Ramblers 2 Bridget Falkenhayn '19 Annie Mollman '17
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Lily Loosbrock '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Mike Johnson '17 [5-6]		 Mike Johnson '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Lily Loosbrock '17 [5-6]
Skippers Carl Eaton '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Graham Ness '19 [5-6]		 Graham Ness '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Carl Eaton '17 [5-6]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Spencer Keenan '17 W. Quinn Keenan '19
Trevian 1 Dylan Cotter '18 Caroline O'Malley '17
New Trier HS New Trier HS Alex Fowkes '16 [1-8] Katie Lowenbaum '17 [1-2]
Ben Spring '18 [3-8]
Trevian 2 Lolly Vasilion '18 Matthew Trunsky '17
Orono High School Orono High School Samuel Bartel '18 Erik Sundberg '17
Varsity Erich Pinske '18 [1-2, 8]
Seamus Hendrickson '20 [3-6]
Rachel Bartel '20 [7]		 Seamus Hendrickson '20 [1-2]
Rachel Bartel '20 [3-4, 8]
Erich Pinske '18 [5-7]
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Ray Groble '17 [1-4, 7-8]
Logan O'Connor '17 [5-6]		 Tiernaur Anderson '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Wolfpack Bridget Groble '17 Matthew Alfano '17
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Colleen Baumann '17 [1-8] Alec Wyers '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Lillian Nemeth '18 [3-6]
Maroons Phoebe Lincoln '16 [1-8] Matteo Torquati '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Emerson Wright '19 [3-6]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School James Wagner '17 [1-6]
Owen Patterson '19 [7-8]		 Gloria Kevliciute '17 [1-2]
Hanna Mularczyk '17 [3-4]
Caroline Bernet '17 [5-8]
Varsity Peter Odom '17 Becca Rose '17

Conditions — 04/02/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌨️Slight snow
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1004.3 hPa

Temperature

37°F
↑ 40°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 24°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
18.3 kn
avg  ·  max 23.3 kn
Gusts to 47.6 kn
From WNW (291°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1004.3 hPa Rain0.04 in Snow0.33 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 19 kn · S 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →