MISSA Central Baker Qualifier

HostHinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg
Date04/22/2017
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	15–1
2	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	13–3
3	New Trier HS	Trevian	12–4
4	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	11–5
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	6–10
6	Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	6–10
7	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	3–13
8	Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	3–13
9	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	3–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,021 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 72 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.425 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 44% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	1	6.27 school +0.26	Gloria Kevliciute / Caroline Bernet 1.97 Owen Patterson / Peter Odom 1.70 James Wagner / Becca Rose 2.29	88%	15–1 (94%)	+0.9
2	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	2	5.31 school −0.20	Bridget Groble / Matthew Alfano 1.65 Ray Groble / Aisling Sullivan 2.00 Logan O'Connor / Nicholas Alfano 1.81	78%	13–3 (81%)	+0.5
3	New Trier HS Trevian	3	4.76 school −0.48	Spencer Keenan / Matthew Trunsky 2.04 Dylan Cotter / Ben Spring 1.59 Lolly Vasilion / Michael Rivkin 1.53	70%	12–4 (75%)	+0.8
4	Lake Forest High School Scouts	6	3.09 school +0.24	Connor Sheridan / Su Yardimci 1.29 William Porter / Chase Rupprecht 0.25 Nicholas Elsasser / James Sugrue 1.12	44%	11–5 (69%)	+4.0
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	7	2.57 school −0.22	Matteo Torquati / Otto Brown Sam Morin / Alec Wyers Lillian Nemeth / Emerson Wright	35%	6–10 (38%)	+0.4
6	Hinsdale Central High School Varsity	5	3.17 school −0.45	David Phlamm / Bryan Phlamm 1.32 Sherman Thompson / Evan Fallon 1.43 Mitchell Thompson / Berenger Jeannides 0.79	45%	6–10 (38%)	−1.2
7	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	8	2.21 school −0.11	Will Robinson / Rowan Henke Austin Suvari / Lily Allen 0.98 Nick Ingraffia / Ryan Henderson 1–9 Han-Ray Jahn / Lucy Mulvihill 1.27 2–4	28%	3–13 (19%)	−1.6
8	Latin School of Chicago Varsity	4	3.39 school +0.10	Marleigh Belsley / Cj Ricci 1.68 Julia Fairbank / James Nappo Will Davies / Lily Loventhal 1.42	46%	3–13 (19%)	−4.4
9	Loyola Academy Ramblers	9	1.35 school −0.09	Andrew Lestingi / Annie Mollman Rory Neenan / Angelina Simon 1.01 Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen / Susie Driscoll 0.31 2–8 Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen / Hugh Rider 0.31 1–5	15%	3–13 (19%)	+0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Lake Forest High School	3.09	4.90	11–5	7.0	+1.81	3.9	2%
1	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	6.27	7.24	15–1	14.1	+0.97	0.4	40%
3	New Trier HS	4.76	5.18	12–4	11.2	+0.42	0.2	44%
9	Loyola Academy	1.35	1.70	3–13	2.4	+0.35	0.1	45%
2	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	5.31	5.65	13–3	12.5	+0.34	0.1	51%
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	2.57	2.74	6–10	5.6	+0.17	0.0	53%
6	Hinsdale Central High School	3.17	2.66	6–10	7.2	−0.51	0.3	83%
7	Evanston Township HS	2.21	1.29	3–13	4.6	−0.91	0.8	91%
8	Latin School of Chicago	3.39	1.33	3–13	7.4	−2.06	4.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Porter	Lake Forest High School	0.25	2.06	11–5	7.0	+1.81	3.9	2%
Owen Patterson	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	1.70	2.67	15–1	14.1	+0.97	0.4	40%
Spencer Keenan	New Trier HS	2.04	2.47	12–4	11.2	+0.42	0.2	44%
Dylan Cotter	New Trier HS	1.59	2.01	12–4	11.2	+0.42	0.2	44%
Andrew Lestingi	Loyola Academy	-0.12	0.23	3–13	2.4	+0.35	0.1	45%
Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen	Loyola Academy	0.31	0.66	3–13	2.4	+0.35	0.1	45%
Rory Neenan	Loyola Academy	1.01	1.37	3–13	2.4	+0.35	0.1	45%
Ray Groble	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	2.00	2.33	13–3	12.5	+0.34	0.1	51%
Logan O'Connor	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	1.81	2.15	13–3	12.5	+0.34	0.1	51%
Sam Morin	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	0.66	0.82	6–10	5.6	+0.17	0.0	53%
David Phlamm	Hinsdale Central High School	1.32	0.81	6–10	7.2	−0.51	0.3	83%
Mitchell Thompson	Hinsdale Central High School	0.79	0.28	6–10	7.2	−0.51	0.3	83%
Han-Ray Jahn	Evanston Township HS	1.27	0.58	2–4	2.5	−0.70	0.2	86%
Will Robinson	Evanston Township HS	0.58	-0.34	3–13	4.6	−0.91	0.8	91%
Austin Suvari	Evanston Township HS	0.98	0.07	3–13	4.6	−0.91	0.8	91%
Nick Ingraffia	Evanston Township HS	0.08	-1.06	1–9	2.0	−1.13	0.6	91%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Evanston Township HS	95%
1	2	Hinsdale Central High School	New Trier HS	22%	upset
1	3	Lake Forest High School	Loyola Academy	80%
1	4	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Latin School of Chicago	91%
1	5	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	91%
1	6	Evanston Township HS	Loyola Academy	77%
1	7	Hinsdale Central High School	Latin School of Chicago	47%	upset
1	8	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Lake Forest High School	93%
1	9	New Trier HS	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	39%	upset
1	10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Loyola Academy	71%
1	11	Lake Forest High School	Evanston Township HS	74%
1	12	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Hinsdale Central High School	92%
1	13	New Trier HS	Loyola Academy	94%
1	14	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Latin School of Chicago	82%
1	15	Lake Forest High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	62%
1	16	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Evanston Township HS	93%
1	17	Latin School of Chicago	Loyola Academy	83%
1	18	Lake Forest High School	New Trier HS	21%	upset
1	19	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Hinsdale Central High School	84%
1	20	Evanston Township HS	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	36%	upset
1	21	Lake Forest High School	Latin School of Chicago	44%	upset
1	22	Hinsdale Central High School	Loyola Academy	80%
1	23	New Trier HS	Evanston Township HS	91%
1	24	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	95%
1	25	Lake Forest High School	Hinsdale Central High School	49%	upset
1	26	Evanston Township HS	Latin School of Chicago	41%	upset
1	27	New Trier HS	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	85%
1	28	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	68%
1	29	Hinsdale Central High School	Evanston Township HS	75%
1	30	Latin School of Chicago	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	65%
1	31	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Loyola Academy	96%
1	32	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	New Trier HS	76%
1	33	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Hinsdale Central High School	39%	upset
1	34	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Lake Forest High School	85%
1	35	New Trier HS	Latin School of Chicago	74%
1	36	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Loyola Academy	98%
2	37	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Evanston Township HS	94%
2	38	New Trier HS	Hinsdale Central High School	78%
2	39	Lake Forest High School	Loyola Academy	79%
2	40	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Latin School of Chicago	90%
2	41	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	89%
2	42	Loyola Academy	Evanston Township HS	23%	upset
2	43	Hinsdale Central High School	Latin School of Chicago	45%	upset
2	44	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Lake Forest High School	92%
2	45	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	New Trier HS	61%
2	46	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Loyola Academy	72%
2	47	Lake Forest High School	Evanston Township HS	73%
2	48	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Hinsdale Central High School	92%
2	49	New Trier HS	Loyola Academy	93%
2	50	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Latin School of Chicago	82%
2	51	Lake Forest High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	60%
2	52	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Evanston Township HS	93%
2	53	Loyola Academy	Latin School of Chicago	17%	upset
2	54	New Trier HS	Lake Forest High School	78%
2	55	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Hinsdale Central High School	84%
2	56	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Evanston Township HS	65%
2	57	Lake Forest High School	Latin School of Chicago	45%	upset
2	58	Loyola Academy	Hinsdale Central High School	20%	upset
2	59	New Trier HS	Evanston Township HS	91%
2	60	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	94%
2	61	Lake Forest High School	Hinsdale Central High School	49%	upset
2	62	Latin School of Chicago	Evanston Township HS	58%
2	63	New Trier HS	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	84%
2	64	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	68%
2	65	Hinsdale Central High School	Evanston Township HS	74%
2	66	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Latin School of Chicago	36%	upset
2	67	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Loyola Academy	95%
2	68	New Trier HS	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	24%	upset
2	69	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Hinsdale Central High School	40%	upset
2	70	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Lake Forest High School	84%
2	71	New Trier HS	Latin School of Chicago	74%
2	72	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Loyola Academy	98%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Wildkits	3-4-6
2	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Trevian	2-4-6
3	Scouts	1-3-5	def.	Ramblers	2-4-6
4	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
5	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6 OCS
6	Wildkits	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
7	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
8	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Scouts	2-4-6
9	Trevian	1-3-5	def.	Wolfpack	2-4-6
10	Maroons	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
11	Scouts	1-2-5	def.	Wildkits	3-4-6
12	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
13	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
14	Wolfpack	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
15	Scouts	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
16	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
17	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
18	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Trevian	3-4-5
19	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
20	Wildkits	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
21	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
22	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Ramblers	3-4-6
23	Trevian	1-2-5	def.	Wildkits	3-4-6
24	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
25	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
26	Wildkits	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
27	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
28	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-5
29	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Wildkits	4-5-6
30	Varsity	1-3-6	def.	Maroons	2-4-5
31	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Ramblers	3-4-6
32	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
33	Maroons	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
34	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Scouts	4-5-6
35	Trevian	1-3-6	def.	Varsity	2-4-5
36	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Ramblers	3-4-6
37	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Wildkits	4-5-6
38	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
39	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
40	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
41	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Maroons	3-4-6
42	Ramblers	1-3-6	def.	Wildkits	2-4-5
43	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
44	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Scouts	3-5-6
45	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Trevian	4-5-6
46	Maroons	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
47	Scouts	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
48	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
49	Trevian	2-3-4	def.	Ramblers	1-5-6
50	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
51	Scouts	1-3-6	def.	Maroons	2-4-5
52	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Wildkits	4-5-6
53	Ramblers	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
54	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Scouts	3-5-6
55	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
56	Maroons	1-2-6	def.	Wildkits	3-4-5
57	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
58	Ramblers	1-4-5	def.	Varsity	2-3-6
59	Trevian	1-3-4	def.	Wildkits	2-5-6
60	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
61	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
62	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Wildkits	3-4-5
63	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
64	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-5
65	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
66	Maroons	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
67	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Ramblers	3-4-6
68	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
69	Maroons	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
70	Wolfpack	1-4-5	def.	Scouts	2-3-6
71	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
72	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	Gloria Kevliciute '17 James Wagner '17 Owen Patterson '19	Caroline Bernet '17 Becca Rose '17 Peter Odom '17
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	Bridget Groble '17 Logan O'Connor '17 Ray Groble '17	Matthew Alfano '17 Nicholas Alfano '18 Aisling Sullivan '18
New Trier HS	Trevian	Dylan Cotter '18 Lolly Vasilion '18 Spencer Keenan '17	Ben Spring '18 Michael Rivkin '17 Matthew Trunsky '17
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Connor Sheridan '18 Nicholas Elsasser '18 William Porter '18	Su Yardimci '18 James Sugrue '20 Chase Rupprecht '20
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	Lillian Nemeth '18 Matteo Torquati '19 Sam Morin '18	Emerson Wright '19 Otto Brown '19 Alec Wyers '19
Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	David Phlamm '18 Mitchell Thompson '19 Sherman Thompson '18	Bryan Phlamm '21 Berenger Jeannides '18 Evan Fallon '18
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	Austin Suvari '19 Han-Ray Jahn '17 Nick Ingraffia '17 Will Robinson '18	Lily Allen '19 Lucy Mulvihill '18 Ryan Henderson '19 Rowan Henke '17
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	Julia Fairbank '19 Marleigh Belsley '19 Will Davies '18	James Nappo '20 Cj Ricci '20 Lily Loventhal '20
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	Andrew Lestingi '17 Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen '17 Rory Neenan '18	Annie Mollman '17 Susie Driscoll '18 Hugh Rider '18 Angelina Simon '20

Conditions — 04/22/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 63% · Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 12.5 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From NNE (20°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1023.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Hinsdale Central/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius College/Walter Payton Colleg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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