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Shepherd Championship 2015

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 33 28 61
2 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 44 35 79
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 68 62 130
4 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Red Devils One 110 28 138
5 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 70 72 142
6 Big Foot High School Big Foot High School Varsity 68 96 164
7 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 80 87 167
8 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 68 105 173
9 Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 89 111 200
10 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 71 160 231
11 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 115 121 236
12 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 151 92 243
13 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 120 125 245
14 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 136 123 259
15 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 159 118 277
16 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 126 159 285
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 1 2 6 1 2 4 5 5 2 2 3 33 Graham Post '17
Wil Bowman '16
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian OCS 4 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 7 2 44 Spencer Keenan '17 [1-11]
Matthew Trunsky '17 [1-6]
Nathan Whisner '19 [7-8]
Ben Spring '18 [9-11]
Big Foot High School Big Foot High School Varsity 3 5 1 11 4 1 OCS 1 OCS 1 7 68 Harry Melges Iv '19
Bo Freytag '18
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 6 1 7 4 12 13 4 10 7 3 1 68 Jonathan Prins '16
Michael Kucks '16
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 7 9 9 6 13 3 2 3 5 6 5 68 Liz Obermaier '17 [1-11]
Amanda Williams '17 [1-4, 6-11]
Brian Liu '18 [5]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 OCS 7 2 3 1 6 8 12 6 4 4 70 Han-Ray Jahn '17
James Zampa '16
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 4 11 5 5 5 11 6 4 3 8 9 71 Ajay Provost '19
Brooke Corso '17
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 9 6 4 9 7 5 9 11 9 5 6 80 Maryfrances Myler '18 [1-11]
Justin Friend '16 [1-2, 7-11]
Jamie Mcclellan '17 [3-6]
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 12 8 BKD 7 6 8 3 7 8 14 8 89 John Huskin '18 [1-8]
Ryan Rozycki '16 [9-11]
Ryan Rozycki '16 [1-2]
John Godoshian '18 [3-4, 9-11]
Adam Weinkauf '18 [5-8]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Red Devils One 5 3 13 15 DSQ 10 11 9 4 11 12 110 Chris Twomley '17 [1-2]
Michael Kalata '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Molly Matthews '19 [5-6, 9-11]
Molly Matthews '19 [1-2]
Tyler Pardo '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Chris Twomley '17 [5-6, 9-11]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 12 11 8 11 7 OCS 8 10 12 RAF 115 Lillian Nemeth '18
Matteo Torquati '19
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 8 10 12 10 9 9 13 14 13 9 13 120 Rory Neenan '18 [1-11]
Sophia Kanellitsas '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jack Sadera '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 13 16 8 12 8 15 10 13 11 10 10 126 Jemima Korbel? '18
Casteel Lisac '18
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 11 13 10 16 10 14 12 6 OCS 13 14 136 Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen '17
Claire Russell '18
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 10 14 15 14 14 12 OCS 15 14 15 11 151 Greg Wootton '19
Grayson Hunter '19
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 OCS 15 14 13 DNS DNS 7 16 12 16 15 159 Will Robinson '18 [1-11]
Lilly Allen '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Jack Suvari '19 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Red Devils One 1 4 4 4 1 3 3 1 1 3 3 28 Ian Reimel '19
Neil Quinlan '17
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 10 3 1 2 28 Justin Lovell '17
Sam Ralston '16
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 3 2 5 3 4 2 2 2 2 8 35 Dylan Cotter '18 [1-11]
W. Quinn Keenan '19 [1-4, 7-11]
Nathan Whisner '19 [5-6]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 4 8 5 1 9 7 4 7 6 6 5 62 Anne Allman '16
Sam Colvin '16
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 9 9 7 7 12 1 10 5 7 4 1 72 Austin Suvari '19 [1-8]
James Zampa '16 [9-11]
Rowan Henke '17 [1-8]
Logan Pearlman '16 [9-11]
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 11 12 9 9 5 5 9 11 5 7 4 87 Katherine Clulo '18 [1-11]
Lily Salgat '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Thomas Jameson '16 [3-6, 9-11]
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 6 6 DNF 11 6 9 8 6 4 5 14 92 Preston Anderson '18 [1-11]
Laurel Schenkman '18 [1-8]
Leo Mancini '19 [9-11]
Big Foot High School Big Foot High School Varsity OCS 2 3 OCS 4 OCS 5 3 8 10 10 96 Jacob Stout '16
Christian Karabas '19
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 14 7 11 6 7 10 6 9 11 13 11 105 Alexandra Soo '18 [1, 11]
Jacob Mackey '17 [2-8]
Connagh Rowley '18 [9-10]
Jacob Mackey '17 [1]
Alexandra Soo '18 [2, 4]
Connagh Rowley '18 [3, 5-8]
Brian Liu '18 [9-10]
Amanda Williams '17 [11]
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 5 5 14 3 DSQ 6 14 13 14 11 9 111 Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [1-6, 9-11]
Ellie Frame '18 [7-8]
Ellie Frame '18 [1-2]
Sydney Semack '18 [3-4]
Teddy Prokop '19 [5-6, 9-11]
Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [7-8]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 7 10 12 8 10 11 15 8 13 12 12 118 Nick Ingraffia '17 [1-8]
Sam Pascal '18 [9-11]
Sam Pascal '18 [1-8]
Nick Ingraffia '17 [9-11]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 10 13 10 OCS 11 8 11 4 9 15 13 121 Sam Morin '18
Michael Hellie '18
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 13 11 6 OCS 8 12 12 12 16 9 7 123 Conor Kennedy '17 [1-11]
Caroline Yardley '16 [1-2, 5-11]
Toby Harris '19 [3-4]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 8 15 8 10 DNS 15 7 16 15 8 6 125 Natalie Norton '18
Chris Lecompte '17
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 15 16 13 DNF 13 13 16 14 10 16 16 159 Grant Adams '19
Alexander Cato '19
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 12 14 DNS DNS DNS 14 13 15 12 14 15 160 Caelan Wright '19
Olivia Wilson '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity113355779911
Big Foot High SchoolBig Foot High School Varsity22446688101012
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons16162244668810
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity33557799111113
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity One4466881010121214
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 15577991111131315
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 2668810101212141416
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Red Devils One77991111131315151
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Norsemen8810101212141416162
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity99111113131515113
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 11010121214141616224
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 211111313151511335
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian12121414161622446
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red131315151133557
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator141416162244668
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Varsity1515113355779

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity22446688101012
Big Foot High SchoolBig Foot High School Varsity33557799111113
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons113355779911
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity4466881010121214
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity One5577991111131315
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 1668810101212141416
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 277991111131315151
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Red Devils One8810101212141416162
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Norsemen99111113131515113
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity1010121214141616224
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 111111313151511335
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 212121414161622446
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian131315151133557
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red141416162244668
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator1515113355779
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Varsity16162244668810
School / Team SkipperCrew
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Greg Wootton '19 Grayson Hunter '19
Varsity Preston Anderson '18 [1-11] Laurel Schenkman '18 [1-8]
Leo Mancini '19 [9-11]
Big Foot High School Big Foot High School Harry Melges Iv '19 Bo Freytag '18
Varsity Jacob Stout '16 Christian Karabas '19
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Liz Obermaier '17 [1-11] Amanda Williams '17 [1-4, 6-11]
Brian Liu '18 [5]
Varsity Alexandra Soo '18 [1, 11]
Jacob Mackey '17 [2-8]
Connagh Rowley '18 [9-10]		 Jacob Mackey '17 [1]
Alexandra Soo '18 [2, 4]
Connagh Rowley '18 [3, 5-8]
Brian Liu '18 [9-10]
Amanda Williams '17 [11]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Graham Post '17 Wil Bowman '16
Varsity One Justin Lovell '17 Sam Ralston '16
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Han-Ray Jahn '17 James Zampa '16
Varsity 1 Austin Suvari '19 [1-8]
James Zampa '16 [9-11]		 Rowan Henke '17 [1-8]
Logan Pearlman '16 [9-11]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Will Robinson '18 [1-11] Lilly Allen '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Jack Suvari '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity 2 Nick Ingraffia '17 [1-8]
Sam Pascal '18 [9-11]		 Sam Pascal '18 [1-8]
Nick Ingraffia '17 [9-11]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Chris Twomley '17 [1-2]
Michael Kalata '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Molly Matthews '19 [5-6, 9-11]		 Molly Matthews '19 [1-2]
Tyler Pardo '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Chris Twomley '17 [5-6, 9-11]
Red Devils One Ian Reimel '19 Neil Quinlan '17
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School John Huskin '18 [1-8]
Ryan Rozycki '16 [9-11]		 Ryan Rozycki '16 [1-2]
John Godoshian '18 [3-4, 9-11]
Adam Weinkauf '18 [5-8]
Norsemen Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [1-6, 9-11]
Ellie Frame '18 [7-8]		 Ellie Frame '18 [1-2]
Sydney Semack '18 [3-4]
Teddy Prokop '19 [5-6, 9-11]
Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [7-8]
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Jemima Korbel? '18 Casteel Lisac '18
Varsity Grant Adams '19 Alexander Cato '19
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Rory Neenan '18 [1-11] Sophia Kanellitsas '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jack Sadera '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Ramblers 1 Natalie Norton '18 Chris Lecompte '17
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen '17 Claire Russell '18
Ramblers 2 Conor Kennedy '17 [1-11] Caroline Yardley '16 [1-2, 5-11]
Toby Harris '19 [3-4]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Spencer Keenan '17 [1-11] Matthew Trunsky '17 [1-6]
Nathan Whisner '19 [7-8]
Ben Spring '18 [9-11]
Trevian Dylan Cotter '18 [1-11] W. Quinn Keenan '19 [1-4, 7-11]
Nathan Whisner '19 [5-6]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Jonathan Prins '16 Michael Kucks '16
Red Anne Allman '16 Sam Colvin '16
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Maryfrances Myler '18 [1-11] Justin Friend '16 [1-2, 7-11]
Jamie Mcclellan '17 [3-6]
St Francis Gladiator Katherine Clulo '18 [1-11] Lily Salgat '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Thomas Jameson '16 [3-6, 9-11]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Ajay Provost '19 Brooke Corso '17
Varsity Caelan Wright '19 Olivia Wilson '18
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Lillian Nemeth '18 Matteo Torquati '19
Maroons Sam Morin '18 Michael Hellie '18

Conditions — 11/14/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1024.2 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.5 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1024.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn · SW 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Columbia Yacht Club-Chicago, IL: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.17 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Columbia Yacht Club-Chicago, IL by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Columbia Yacht Club-Chicago, IL, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →