Loyola Academy '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 (fleet 0.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–3 (57%) as crew 0–8 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 4–3 | 0–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 4–11 against 4.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | skipper | 0.45 | 1.62 | 2–1 | 1.6 | +1.16 | 0.3 | 56% |
| 2016-04-23 | High School Invite | skipper | 1.04 | 1.32 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.29 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2016-04-23 | High School Invite | crew | 1.04 | -1.96 | 0–8 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Kick Off Classic 2016 420's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.2 | -0.32 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| High School Invite | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship 2015 | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.6 | -0.50 |
| Pewaukee Fall Scramble | Crew | B | 5 | 14.4 | — |
| Halloween Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | -0.36 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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