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Halloween Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Badger High School Badger High School Varsity 10 10
2 Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 11 11
3 Catholic Memorial High School Catholic Memorial High School Varsity 27 27
4 Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 37 37
5 Big Foot High School Big Foot High School Varsity 39 39
6 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 40 40
7 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 50 50
8 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 53 53
9 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 62 62
10 Skyhawks Skyhawks Skyhawks 67 67
11 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 73 73
12 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 74 74
13 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 75 75
14 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 85 85
15 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 5 88 88
16 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 91 91
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Badger High School Badger High School Varsity 1 1 1 2 2 3 10 Kyle Navin '20
Sam Spende '16
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 2 4 2 1 1 1 11 Darius Mienville '17
Ryan Gullang '18
Catholic Memorial High School Catholic Memorial High School Varsity 4 5 3 6 4 5 27 Patrick Schmidt '17
Grayson Wallace '18
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 5 3 DNS 4 6 2 37 Emily Gildea '17
Chris Neary '19
Big Foot High School Big Foot High School Varsity 10 2 DNS 3 3 4 39 Harry Melges Iv '19
Thomas Curry '15
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 3 8 4 11 7 7 40 Justin Frank '17
Sarah Schmider '17
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 9 9 6 10 5 11 50 Dillon Hollingsworth '20
Jack Lavanaway '20
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 7 6 DNS 5 10 8 53 Conor Kennedy '17
Annie Mollman '17
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 11 12 DNS 7 9 6 62 Sam Morin '18
No Show
Skyhawks Skyhawks Skyhawks 8 7 DNF DNF 8 10 67
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 6 RAF DNS 12 12 9 73 Paul Clark '17
Will Robinson '18
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 13 10 5 DNF 15 14 74 Ryan Lynch '18
Genevieve Lee '16
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 12 11 DNF 8 14 13 75 Ryan Henderson '19
Lilly Allen '19
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 14 13 DNS 9 16 16 85 Lucia Marquez '20 [1-6]
Graham Knox '20 [1-3]
Joe Goodzey '20 [4-6]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 5 16 15 DNS DNF 11 12 88 Dillon Hollingsworth '20
Gray Knox '19
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 15 14 DNS DNF 13 15 91 Kelly Page '17
Spencer Storm '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Badger High SchoolBadger High School Varsity121212121212
Brother Rice High School - ILBrother Rice High School - IL Varsity171717171717
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons624962496249624962496249
SkyhawksSkyhawks Skyhawks555555
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 1625062506250625062506250
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 2281328132813281328132813
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 3584658465846584658465846
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 4275127512751275127512751
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 5625862586258625862586258
Lake Forest AcademyLake Forest Academy Varsity191919191919

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1009.9 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.8 kn
avg  ·  max 14.0 kn
Gusts to 29.7 kn
From WSW (256°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1009.9 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 15 kn · W 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lake Forest Sailing: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest Sailing by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Lake Forest Sailing, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →