High School Invite

HostChicago Yacht Club - Belmont Station
Date04/23/2016
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	11–3
2	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	10–4
3	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	10–4
4	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	9–5
5	New Trier HS	Trevian	9–5
6	Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	3–11
7	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	2–12
8	Evanston Township HS	Varsity	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,667 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 56 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.431 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.25 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 59% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Latin School of Chicago Varsity	1	6.46 school +0.28	Allie Cahn / Marleigh Belsley 1.87 Will Davies / Leah Peluchiwski Mark Davies / Julia Fairbank 2.60	84%	11–3 (79%)	−0.8
2	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	3	5.12 school +0.15	Gloria Kevliciute / Owen Patterson 1.76 Peter Odom / Hanna Mularczyk James Wagner / Lucie Mcknight	63%	10–4 (71%)	+1.2
3	Lake Forest High School Scouts	2	5.21 school +0.31	William Curtiss / Su Yardimci 2.15 Nicholas Elsasser / Connor Sheridan 1.48 Skye Shepherd / Sarah Tompsidis 1.34 9–3 William Porter / Sarah Tompsidis 1–1	66%	10–4 (71%)	+0.8
4	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	4	4.89 school −0.17	Ray Groble / Tiernaur Anderson 1.60 6–4 Bridget Groble / Matthew Alfano 6–4 Abby Mcfadyen / Aisling Sullivan 1.99 7–3 Ray Groble / Bridget Groble 1.59 3–1 Logan O'Connor / Tiernaur Anderson 1.76 3–1 Logan O'Connor / Aisling Sullivan 1.72 2–2	60%	9–5 (64%)	+0.6
5	New Trier HS Trevian	5	4.25 school −0.36	Spencer Keenan / Lolly Vasilion Alex Fowkes / Katie Lowenbaum Dylan Cotter / Ben Spring	49%	9–5 (64%)	+2.1
6	Hinsdale Central High School Varsity	6	2.88 school −0.19	Sherman Thompson / David Phlamm Jacob Dannhausen-Brun / Evan Fallon 0.80 Cj Enright / Evan Kavooras	30%	3–11 (21%)	−1.2
7	Loyola Academy Ramblers	7	3.07 school −0.12	Hayden Easom / Annie Mollman 1.06 0–8 Zachary Miller / Conor Kennedy 0–8 Hayden Easom / Natalie Norton 0.97 2–4 Zachary Miller / Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen 2–4 Peter Reckamp / Chris Lecompte 1.18 0–6 Conor Kennedy / Chris Lecompte 2–2 Peter Reckamp / Annie Mollman 1.19 0–2 Peter Reckamp / Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen 1.21 0–2	27%	2–12 (14%)	−1.8
8	Evanston Township HS Varsity	8	2.40 school −0.06	James Zampa / Emma Zastrow 0.79 Han-Ray Jahn / Linnea Lipson 1.18 2–10 Austin Suvari / Rowan Henke 0.34 2–10 Jack Suvari / Lilly Allen 0–2 Han-Ray Jahn / Nick Ingraffia 1.06 0–2	21%	2–12 (14%)	−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	New Trier HS	4.25	5.29	9–5	6.9	+1.03	1.2	16%
2	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	5.12	5.72	10–4	8.8	+0.60	0.4	35%
3	Lake Forest High School	5.21	5.60	10–4	9.2	+0.39	0.2	44%
4	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	4.89	5.20	9–5	8.4	+0.31	0.1	48%
1	Latin School of Chicago	6.46	5.91	11–3	11.8	−0.55	0.3	85%
8	Evanston Township HS	2.40	1.73	2–12	2.9	−0.67	0.3	85%
6	Hinsdale Central High School	2.88	2.18	3–11	4.2	−0.71	0.5	87%
7	Loyola Academy	3.07	1.98	2–12	3.8	−1.09	1.0	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Spencer Keenan	New Trier HS	1.46	2.49	9–5	6.9	+1.03	1.2	16%
Alex Fowkes	New Trier HS	1.40	2.43	9–5	6.9	+1.03	1.2	16%
Dylan Cotter	New Trier HS	1.33	2.37	9–5	6.9	+1.03	1.2	16%
Peter Odom	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	1.04	1.64	10–4	8.8	+0.60	0.4	35%
Logan O'Connor	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	1.76	2.14	5–3	4.6	+0.38	0.1	54%
Abby Mcfadyen	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	1.99	2.37	7–3	6.4	+0.37	0.1	49%
Ray Groble	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	1.60	1.90	9–5	8.4	+0.31	0.1	48%
Conor Kennedy	Loyola Academy	0.09	0.37	2–2	1.8	+0.29	0.0	60%
Austin Suvari	Evanston Township HS	0.34	-0.16	2–10	2.6	−0.50	0.2	80%
Allie Cahn	Latin School of Chicago	1.87	1.32	11–3	11.8	−0.55	0.3	85%
James Zampa	Evanston Township HS	0.79	0.12	2–12	2.9	−0.67	0.3	85%
Han-Ray Jahn	Evanston Township HS	1.18	0.50	2–12	2.9	−0.67	0.3	85%
Cj Enright	Hinsdale Central High School	0.90	0.20	3–11	4.2	−0.71	0.5	87%
Hayden Easom	Loyola Academy	1.06	-0.03	2–12	3.8	−1.09	1.0	93%
Peter Reckamp	Loyola Academy	1.18	-1.82	0–10	2.0	≤−3.00	2.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Evanston Township HS	88%
1	2	Lake Forest High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	60%
1	3	New Trier HS	Loyola Academy	66%
1	4	Latin School of Chicago	Hinsdale Central High School	95%
1	5	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Evanston Township HS	88%
1	6	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	New Trier HS	68%
1	7	Lake Forest High School	Latin School of Chicago	30%	upset
1	8	Hinsdale Central High School	Loyola Academy	63%
1	9	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	New Trier HS	64%
1	10	Latin School of Chicago	Evanston Township HS	96%
1	11	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Loyola Academy	81%
1	12	Hinsdale Central High School	Lake Forest High School	23%	upset
1	13	Latin School of Chicago	New Trier HS	86%
1	14	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Loyola Academy	82%
1	15	Lake Forest High School	Evanston Township HS	91%
1	16	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Hinsdale Central High School	85%
1	17	Latin School of Chicago	Loyola Academy	92%
1	18	New Trier HS	Lake Forest High School	29%	upset
1	19	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	52%
1	20	Hinsdale Central High School	Evanston Township HS	58%
1	21	Lake Forest High School	Loyola Academy	83%
1	22	Latin School of Chicago	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	74%
1	23	New Trier HS	Evanston Township HS	85%
1	24	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Hinsdale Central High School	79%
1	25	Lake Forest High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	54%
1	26	Loyola Academy	Evanston Township HS	49%	upset
1	27	Latin School of Chicago	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	81%
1	28	New Trier HS	Hinsdale Central High School	75%
2	29	Lake Forest High School	Hinsdale Central High School	75%
2	30	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	New Trier HS	61%
2	31	Latin School of Chicago	Evanston Township HS	96%
2	32	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Loyola Academy	80%
2	33	Lake Forest High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	59%
2	34	Latin School of Chicago	Hinsdale Central High School	94%
2	35	New Trier HS	Loyola Academy	67%
2	36	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Evanston Township HS	89%
2	37	Latin School of Chicago	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	81%
2	38	Lake Forest High School	Loyola Academy	82%
2	39	Evanston Township HS	Hinsdale Central High School	41%	upset
2	40	New Trier HS	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	34%	upset
2	41	Latin School of Chicago	Loyola Academy	91%
2	42	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Evanston Township HS	86%
2	43	Lake Forest High School	New Trier HS	68%
2	44	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Hinsdale Central High School	85%
2	45	Evanston Township HS	Loyola Academy	50%	upset
2	46	New Trier HS	Latin School of Chicago	17%	upset
2	47	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Hinsdale Central High School	78%
2	48	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Lake Forest High School	47%	upset
2	49	New Trier HS	Evanston Township HS	85%
2	50	Loyola Academy	Hinsdale Central High School	41%	upset
2	51	Latin School of Chicago	Lake Forest High School	70%
2	52	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	50%	upset
2	53	New Trier HS	Hinsdale Central High School	75%
2	54	Lake Forest High School	Evanston Township HS	90%
2	55	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Loyola Academy	79%
2	56	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Latin School of Chicago	28%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
2	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-5
3	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Ramblers	3-5-6
4	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
5	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
6	Varsity	1-4-5	def.	Trevian	2-3-6
7	Scouts	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
8	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
9	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Trevian	3-4-5
10	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
11	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
12	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Scouts	1-5-6
13	Varsity	1-3-6	def.	Trevian	2-4-5
14	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
15	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
16	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
17	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Ramblers	3-4-6
18	Trevian	1-3-5	def.	Scouts	2-4-6
19	Wolfpack	2-3-5	def.	Varsity	1-4-6
20	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
21	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
22	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Varsity	1-5-6
23	Trevian	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
24	Wolfpack	1-4-5	def.	Varsity	2-3-6
25	Scouts	1-3-6	def.	Varsity	2-4-5
26	Ramblers	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
27	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Wolfpack	4-5-6
28	Trevian	1-3-6	def.	Varsity	2-4-5
29	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
30	Wolfpack	2-3-4	def.	Trevian	1-5-6
31	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
32	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Ramblers	3-4-6
33	Scouts	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
34	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
35	Trevian	1-2-3	def.	Ramblers	4-5-6
36	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
37	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
38	Scouts	1-2-4	def.	Ramblers	3-5-6
39	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
40	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
41	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Ramblers	3-5-6
42	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
43	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Trevian	3-4-5
44	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
45	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Ramblers	3-4-5
46	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
47	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
48	Varsity	1-3-5	def.	Scouts	2-4-6
49	Trevian	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
50	Ramblers	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
51	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
52	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	2-5-6
53	Trevian	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
54	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
55	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Ramblers	3-5-6
56	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	Allie Cahn '16 Mark Davies '16 Will Davies '18	Marleigh Belsley '19 Julia Fairbank '19 Leah Peluchiwski '16
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	Gloria Kevliciute '17 James Wagner '17 Peter Odom '17	Owen Patterson '19 Lucie Mcknight '17 Hanna Mularczyk '17
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Nicholas Elsasser '18 Skye Shepherd '16 William Curtiss '16 William Porter '18	Connor Sheridan '18 Sarah Tompsidis '17 Su Yardimci '18
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	Abby Mcfadyen '16 Bridget Groble '17 Logan O'Connor '17 Ray Groble '17	Aisling Sullivan '18 Matthew Alfano '17 Tiernaur Anderson '16 Bridget Groble '17
New Trier HS	Trevian	Alex Fowkes '16 Dylan Cotter '18 Spencer Keenan '17	Katie Lowenbaum '17 Ben Spring '18 Lolly Vasilion '18
Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	Cj Enright '17 Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '16 Sherman Thompson '18	Evan Kavooras '17 Evan Fallon '18 David Phlamm '18
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	Conor Kennedy '17 Hayden Easom '17 Peter Reckamp '16 Zachary Miller '16	Chris Lecompte '17 Natalie Norton '18 Annie Mollman '17 Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen '17 Conor Kennedy '17
Evanston Township HS	Varsity	Austin Suvari '19 Han-Ray Jahn '17 Jack Suvari '19 James Zampa '16	Rowan Henke '17 Linnea Lipson '16 Nick Ingraffia '17 Lilly Allen '19 Emma Zastrow '16

Conditions — 04/23/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 8.5 kn

Gusts to 15.9 kn

From ENE (67°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1022.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Chicago Yacht Club - Belmont Station — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Chicago Yacht Club - Belmont Station in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Chicago Yacht Club - Belmont Station by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Chicago Yacht Club - Belmont Station: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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