Hinsdale Central High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.78 (fleet 1.26) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–21 (12%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 3–11 against 4.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-23 | High School Invite | skipper | 0.80 | 0.09 | 3–11 | 4.2 | −0.71 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| High School Invite | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Central Mallory Qualifiers | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | 1.57 |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| Kick Off Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.5 | 0.12 |
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.7 | 0.32 |
| Great Oaks Qual Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.0 | 0.63 |
| Great Oak Qual Group B | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 1.21 |
| Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.8 | -0.52 |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.7 | -0.58 |
| HS Invite - Baker Central Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| MISSA Halloween Spectacular - V | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.6 | -0.67 |
| Kick Off Classic 2014 | Skipper | A | 6 | 17.3 | -1.08 |
| MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier 2014 | Skipper | A | 14 | 20.0 | -1.06 |
| Autumn Classic | Skipper | A | 4 | 18.8 | -2.21 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jacob Dannhausen-Brun |  University of Illinois |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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