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Great Oaks Qual Championship

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 18 18
2 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 28 28
3 Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 35 35
4 White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 45 45
5 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 51 51
6 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 52 52
7 Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 72 72
8 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 75 MRP 75 MRP
9 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 76 76
10 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 78 78
11 Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 82 82
12 Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 92 92
13 Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs 98 98
14 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 99 99
15 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 103 103
16 Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 105 105
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity 5 1 3 1 1 2 3 2 18 Toby Sullivan '19
Josh Sullivan '16
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 3 2 10 3 3 4 2 1 28 Jack Schweda '20
Gavin Burkhart '16
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity 4 6 8 5 5 3 1 3 35 Samuel Bartel '18 [1-8]
Rachel Bartel '20 [1-4]
Erik Sundberg '17 [5-8]
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 13 5 1 6 2 1 4 13 45 Kate Cox '16 [1-8]
Olivia Staruck '16 [1, 5-8]
Ethan Staruck '19 [2-4]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 4 9 7 10 5 8 6 51 Colleen Baumann '17
Phoebe Lincoln '16
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 1 8 4 8 6 12 6 7 52 Jack Tegeder '17
Paul Mclean '17
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 8 14 13 4 9 10 9 5 72 Delaney Hybl '18
Maya Stephani '16
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 7 3 DSQ 2 4 9 5 8 75 MRP Jason Davis '17
Madison Mott '17
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 10 10 7 12 8 8 12 9 76 Grant Kojaian '16 [1, 5-7]
Wade Lorimer '16 [2]
Cole Wiand '16 [3-4, 8]
Liz Obermaier '17 [1, 3-4, 8]
Grant Kojaian '16 [2]
Wade Lorimer '16 [5-7]
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 14 12 2 11 12 6 11 10 78 Jemima Korbel '18
Casteel Lisac '18
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 6 13 5 10 14 16 14 4 82 Sherman Thompson '18 [1-6]
Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '16 [7-8]
David Phlamm '18 [1-6]
Cj Enright '17 [7-8]
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 9 7 14 9 16 13 10 14 92 Eric Hoyerman '19 [1-3, 7-8]
Topher Andersen '17 [4, 6]
Anabel Roza '16 [5]
Anabel Roza '16 [1-2, 4]
Hadley Reetz '17 [3, 5, 7-8]
Eric Hoyerman '19 [6]
Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs 12 9 12 15 15 7 16 12 98 Alexander Bonsager '20
Morgan Termaat '18
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 11 11 6 16 11 15 13 16 99 Aisling Sullivan '18 [1-8]
Nicholas Alfano '18 [1-5]
Matthew Alfano '17 [6-8]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 16 16 11 13 7 14 15 11 103 Anne Allman '16 [1-2]
Jonathan Prins '16 [3-6]
Brant Bolling '16 [7-8]
Sam Colvin '16 [1-2]
Anne Allman '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Brant Bolling '16 [5-6]
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity 15 15 15 14 13 11 7 15 105 Darius Mienville '17
Luke Ackerman '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks11223344
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons171718181122
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity221118181717
Gibraltar High SchoolGibraltar High School Vikings33446688
Hinsdale Central High SchoolHinsdale Central High School Varsity44332211
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles6688991010
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School Varsity88664433
Lake Forest AcademyLake Forest Academy Varsity99101011111212
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity1010998866
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Varsity1111121213131414
Mounds View High SchoolMounds View High School Mustangs12121111101099
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Varsity1313141415151616
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity1414131312121111
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red1515161617171818
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSaint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack1616151514141313
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears1818171716161515
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks Jack Schweda '20 Gavin Burkhart '16
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Grant Kojaian '16 [1, 5-7]
Wade Lorimer '16 [2]
Cole Wiand '16 [3-4, 8]		 Liz Obermaier '17 [1, 3-4, 8]
Grant Kojaian '16 [2]
Wade Lorimer '16 [5-7]
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings Eric Hoyerman '19 [1-3, 7-8]
Topher Andersen '17 [4, 6]
Anabel Roza '16 [5]		 Anabel Roza '16 [1-2, 4]
Hadley Reetz '17 [3, 5, 7-8]
Eric Hoyerman '19 [6]
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity Sherman Thompson '18 [1-6]
Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '16 [7-8]		 David Phlamm '18 [1-6]
Cj Enright '17 [7-8]
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles Delaney Hybl '18 Maya Stephani '16
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity Jack Tegeder '17 Paul Mclean '17
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Varsity Darius Mienville '17 Luke Ackerman '20
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity Jemima Korbel '18 Casteel Lisac '18
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Varsity Toby Sullivan '19 Josh Sullivan '16
Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs Alexander Bonsager '20 Morgan Termaat '18
Orono High School Orono High School Varsity Samuel Bartel '18 [1-8] Rachel Bartel '20 [1-4]
Erik Sundberg '17 [5-8]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack Aisling Sullivan '18 [1-8] Nicholas Alfano '18 [1-5]
Matthew Alfano '17 [6-8]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity Jason Davis '17 Madison Mott '17
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Anne Allman '16 [1-2]
Jonathan Prins '16 [3-6]
Brant Bolling '16 [7-8]		 Sam Colvin '16 [1-2]
Anne Allman '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Brant Bolling '16 [5-6]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons Colleen Baumann '17 Phoebe Lincoln '16
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears Kate Cox '16 [1-8] Olivia Staruck '16 [1, 5-8]
Ethan Staruck '19 [2-4]

Conditions — 09/27/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 13.4 kn
From SE (144°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lake Forest: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Forest, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →