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Red Hat Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 50 52 102
2 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 78 93 171
3 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Yellow 108 65 173
4 Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 117 64 181
5 Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 122 80 202
6 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 89 116 205
7 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 52 163 215
8 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity 126 96 222
9 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 122 107 229
10 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 129 141 270
11 Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 123 148 271
12 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 110 172 282
13 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Varsity 122 165 287
14 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 199 97 296
15 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 179 166 345
16 Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School Varsity 186 188 374
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1 4 4 5 1 5 1 5 1 4 4 3 7 5 50 Blake Stackpoole '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Dominic Dulac '20 [11-12]
John Walton '18 [1-2]
Taft Peck '18 [3-4, 13-14]
Dominic Dulac '20 [5-10]
Luc Walz '20 [11-12]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 12 7 1 1 2 2 5 1 2 1 1 2 8 7 52 Harrison George '18
Alexandra Soo '18
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 2 1 2 7 8 1 12 2 3 8 2 1 OCS 12 78 Noah Wolters '19
Grace Kucharski '19
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 8 8 3 10 9 13 11 3 4 3 8 5 1 3 89 Jack Bull '19 [1-14]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-6]
Bryce Vandenavond '19 [7-14]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Yellow 9 9 OCS 2 6 4 6 11 12 5 6 11 4 6 108 Frank Frisinger '19 [1-7, 9-14]
Jacopo Gioanina '18 [8]
Jacopo Gioanina '18 [1-7, 9-14]
Frank Frisinger '19 [8]
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 3 5 6 12 4 6 7 7 14 13 10 13 9 1 110 Preston Anderson '18
Laurel Schenkman '18
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 6 11 7 6 11 7 9 8 5 OCS 7 4 2 DSQ 117 Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [1-14]
Mack Timmer '19 [1-8]
Duncan Elmer '21 [9-14]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 5 12 10 11 5 12 4 4 10 6 9 8 12 14 122 Matthew Tan '19 [1-14]
Amy Phenjati '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Natalie Simmons '18 [7-8, 11-14]
Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 10 3 11 8 15 14 3 9 9 2 5 12 13 8 122 Molly Matthews '19 [1-4, 7-14]
Meghan Dieball '20 [5-6]
Meghan Dieball '20 [1-4, 7-14]
Kyla Bugarin '20 [5-6]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Varsity 11 13 12 3 10 15 13 6 7 7 3 10 10 2 122 Rory Neenan '18 [1-14]
Claire Russell '18 [1-6]
Susie Driscoll '18 [7-14]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 14 6 9 4 3 3 8 10 11 12 14 15 5 9 123 Brooke Ostrowski '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Nick Gustafson '18 [11-12]
Nick Gustafson '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Nic Zenner '21 [11-12]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity 13 2 5 13 14 10 2 12 13 9 OCS 6 6 4 126 Ben Lilly '18 [1-10]
Kate Mackeigan '19 [11-14]
Regan Pitts '18 [1-4, 7-8, 11-14]
Kate Mackeigan '19 [5-6]
Hazel Mcgovern '21 [9-10]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 7 10 8 9 7 11 10 13 6 11 12 9 3 13 129 Austin Suvari '19 [1-14]
Elias Henke '19 [1-6]
Lily Allen '19 [7-14]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 4 15 15 16 16 8 16 16 8 14 15 14 11 11 179 Charlotte Root '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Samantha Bialek '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Sierra Blemaster '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Cady Clark '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School Varsity RAF 14 14 14 12 9 15 14 16 10 11 16 14 10 186 Jakob Kuipers '18 [1-14]
Emily Gilson '18 [1-6, 9-12]
Anna Russo '20 [7-8, 13-14]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity RAF 16 13 15 13 16 14 15 15 15 13 7 15 15 199 Ajay Provost '19 [1-4, 9-14]
Caelan Wright '19 [5-8]
Amelia Burke '18 [1-4, 13-14]
Olivia Wilson '18 [5-8]
Caelan Wright '19 [9-12]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 2 1 1 2 3 6 1 2 OCS 2 2 1 4 8 52 John Walton '18 [1-10]
Christiana Scheibner '19 [11-14]
Drew Clutterbuck '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Christiana Scheibner '19 [5-6]
John Walton '18 [11-12]
Luc Walz '20 [13-14]
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 4 2 5 1 1 1 7 4 OCS 10 5 3 3 1 64 Christopher Heideman '20
Eden Nykamp '21
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Yellow 10 4 2 OCS 4 2 3 7 2 3 4 2 1 4 65 Anna Biondi '18
Ethan Walburg '19
Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 1 16 7 4 7 5 9 8 9 1 1 5 5 2 80 Ian Reimel '19 [1-14]
Michael Kalata '18 [1-8, 13-14]
Kyla Bugarin '20 [9-12]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 3 3 10 5 2 3 2 1 8 11 12 OCS 9 7 93 Zoe Czadzeck '20 [1-10, 13-14]
Bryson Hough '21 [11-12]
Abby Airo '20 [1-10, 13-14]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity 5 9 3 3 5 10 13 3 11 7 7 4 11 5 96 Murphy Wynsma '19
Annika Lampen '21
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 7 12 6 7 8 7 8 6 12 4 3 6 8 3 97 Noah Robitshek '21 [1-14]
Kai Oslund Dolan '20 [1-12]
Olivia Wilson '18 [13-14]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue 11 5 4 6 9 OCS 5 9 7 6 6 7 6 9 107 Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-12]
Jimmy Chen '18 [13-14]
Lizzie Balsam '18 [1-12]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 6 14 8 11 16 4 12 5 3 5 15 9 2 6 116 Nicole Millerman '19 [1-12]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [13-14]
Matthew Elliot '20 [1-12]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 12 11 9 10 11 8 11 10 6 12 10 10 7 14 141 Will Robinson '18 [1-7, 9-13]
Elias Henke '19 [8, 14]
Lily Allen '19 [1-6]
Elias Henke '19 [7, 9-13]
Will Robinson '18 [8, 14]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 9 10 12 9 10 9 6 12 5 13 14 14 15 10 148 Liam Clone '20 [1-14]
Bryce Wilmoth '20 [1-13]
Nic Zenner '21 [14]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 8 7 11 8 6 11 OCS 13 14 15 11 11 16 15 163 Connagh Rowley '18 [1-6, 11-13]
Brian Liu '18 [7-8]
Lorraine Yuen '18 [9-10, 14]
Kaya Donat '20 [1-10]
Nate Marsden '19 [11-12]
Alexandra Soo '18 [13-14]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Varsity 16 13 16 14 14 13 14 16 1 9 8 8 10 13 165 Gregor Leech '18 [1-7, 9-13]
Claire Russell '18 [8, 14]
Susie Driscoll '18 [1-6]
Claire Russell '18 [7, 9-13]
Gregor Leech '18 [8, 14]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 14 8 13 12 13 12 10 14 4 14 13 15 13 11 166 Andrew Crowell '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Virginia Norris '20 [3-4, 7-14]
Isabelle Kanach '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Rockwell Nierenberg '18 [3-4, 7-14]
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 15 6 14 15 15 OCS 4 15 10 16 9 12 12 12 172 Greg Wootton '19
Jack Ruder '19
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School Varsity 13 15 15 13 12 14 15 11 13 8 16 13 14 16 188 Megan O'Gorman '18 [1-14]
Jacki Spiegel '18 [1-4, 7-12]
Ryan Patterson '19 [5-6, 13-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity113355779911111313
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Varsity22446688101012121414
Bloomfield Hills High SchoolBloomfield Hills High School Varsity33557799111113131515
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue4466881010121214141616
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles55779911111313151511
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity6688101012121414161622
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity77991111131315151133
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity8810101212141416162244
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Yellow99111113131515113355
Grosse IIe High SchoolGrosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet1010121214141616224466
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils11111313151511335577
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Varsity12121414161622446688
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red131315151133557799
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Varsity14141616224466881010
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity151511335577991111
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity16162244668810101212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity22446688101012121414
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Varsity33557799111113131515
Bloomfield Hills High SchoolBloomfield Hills High School Varsity4466881010121214141616
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue55779911111313151511
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles6688101012121414161622
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity77991111131315151133
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity8810101212141416162244
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity99111113131515113355
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Yellow1010121214141616224466
Grosse IIe High SchoolGrosse IIe High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet11111313151511335577
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils12121414161622446688
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Varsity131315151133557799
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red14141616224466881010
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Varsity151511335577991111
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity16162244668810101212
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity113355779911111313
School / Team SkipperCrew
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Preston Anderson '18 Laurel Schenkman '18
Varsity Greg Wootton '19 Jack Ruder '19
Black River Public School Black River Public School Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [1-14] Mack Timmer '19 [1-8]
Duncan Elmer '21 [9-14]
Varsity Christopher Heideman '20 Eden Nykamp '21
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School Jakob Kuipers '18 [1-14] Emily Gilson '18 [1-6, 9-12]
Anna Russo '20 [7-8, 13-14]
Varsity Megan O'Gorman '18 [1-14] Jacki Spiegel '18 [1-4, 7-12]
Ryan Patterson '19 [5-6, 13-14]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Matthew Tan '19 [1-14] Amy Phenjati '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Natalie Simmons '18 [7-8, 11-14]
Cranbrook Blue Henry Gonzalez '21 [1-12]
Jimmy Chen '18 [13-14]		 Lizzie Balsam '18 [1-12]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Charlotte Root '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Samantha Bialek '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Sierra Blemaster '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Cady Clark '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Eagles Andrew Crowell '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Virginia Norris '20 [3-4, 7-14]		 Isabelle Kanach '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Rockwell Nierenberg '18 [3-4, 7-14]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Harrison George '18 Alexandra Soo '18
Varsity Connagh Rowley '18 [1-6, 11-13]
Brian Liu '18 [7-8]
Lorraine Yuen '18 [9-10, 14]		 Kaya Donat '20 [1-10]
Nate Marsden '19 [11-12]
Alexandra Soo '18 [13-14]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Ben Lilly '18 [1-10]
Kate Mackeigan '19 [11-14]		 Regan Pitts '18 [1-4, 7-8, 11-14]
Kate Mackeigan '19 [5-6]
Hazel Mcgovern '21 [9-10]
EGR Varsity Murphy Wynsma '19 Annika Lampen '21
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Austin Suvari '19 [1-14] Elias Henke '19 [1-6]
Lily Allen '19 [7-14]
Varsity Will Robinson '18 [1-7, 9-13]
Elias Henke '19 [8, 14]		 Lily Allen '19 [1-6]
Elias Henke '19 [7, 9-13]
Will Robinson '18 [8, 14]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Frank Frisinger '19 [1-7, 9-14]
Jacopo Gioanina '18 [8]		 Jacopo Gioanina '18 [1-7, 9-14]
Frank Frisinger '19 [8]
GH Yellow Anna Biondi '18 Ethan Walburg '19
Grosse IIe High School Grosse IIe High School Molly Matthews '19 [1-4, 7-14]
Meghan Dieball '20 [5-6]		 Meghan Dieball '20 [1-4, 7-14]
Kyla Bugarin '20 [5-6]
Grosse Ile - Scarlet Ian Reimel '19 [1-14] Michael Kalata '18 [1-8, 13-14]
Kyla Bugarin '20 [9-12]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blake Stackpoole '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Dominic Dulac '20 [11-12]		 John Walton '18 [1-2]
Taft Peck '18 [3-4, 13-14]
Dominic Dulac '20 [5-10]
Luc Walz '20 [11-12]
Blue Devils John Walton '18 [1-10]
Christiana Scheibner '19 [11-14]		 Drew Clutterbuck '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Christiana Scheibner '19 [5-6]
John Walton '18 [11-12]
Luc Walz '20 [13-14]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Rory Neenan '18 [1-14] Claire Russell '18 [1-6]
Susie Driscoll '18 [7-14]
Varsity Gregor Leech '18 [1-7, 9-13]
Claire Russell '18 [8, 14]		 Susie Driscoll '18 [1-6]
Claire Russell '18 [7, 9-13]
Gregor Leech '18 [8, 14]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Noah Wolters '19 Grace Kucharski '19
Red Zoe Czadzeck '20 [1-10, 13-14]
Bryson Hough '21 [11-12]		 Abby Airo '20 [1-10, 13-14]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Ajay Provost '19 [1-4, 9-14]
Caelan Wright '19 [5-8]		 Amelia Burke '18 [1-4, 13-14]
Olivia Wilson '18 [5-8]
Caelan Wright '19 [9-12]
Varsity Noah Robitshek '21 [1-14] Kai Oslund Dolan '20 [1-12]
Olivia Wilson '18 [13-14]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Brooke Ostrowski '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Nick Gustafson '18 [11-12]		 Nick Gustafson '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Nic Zenner '21 [11-12]
Varsity Liam Clone '20 [1-14] Bryce Wilmoth '20 [1-13]
Nic Zenner '21 [14]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Bull '19 [1-14] Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-6]
Bryce Vandenavond '19 [7-14]
Lakers Varsity Nicole Millerman '19 [1-12]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [13-14]		 Matthew Elliot '20 [1-12]

Conditions — 09/16/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From S (181°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1021.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · S 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bloomfield Hills/Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bloomfield Hills/Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Bloomfield Hills/Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →