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Central Team Race Scrimmage

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 New Trier HS New Trier HS Green 5–0
2 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 4–1
3 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Mixed 4–1
3 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 4–1
5 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 3–2
6 Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils 3–2
6 New Trier HS New Trier HS Blue 3–2
8 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 2–3
9 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1–4
9 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1–4
11 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 0–5
11 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 0–5

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,332 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 15 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.447 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.62 ± 0.65: a typical event, more orderly than 87% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1New Trier HS
Green		13.90
school −0.65		Lolly Vasilion / Izzy Cox 1.71
Dylan Cotter / Ben Spring 1.65
Noah Barton / Nathan Whisner 1.16		77%5–0 (100%)+1.1
3Lake Forest High School
Mixed		23.56
school +0.44		Chapman Petersen / Jack Baldwin
Zach Biela / Thaxter Shaw 0.42
Matthew Sexton / Ryan Gullang		72%4–1 (80%)+0.4
6Hinsdale Central High School
Red Devils		42.02
school −0.56		Sherman Thompson / Bryan Phlamm 1.23
Berenger Jeannides / Saunders Thompson 0.26
David Phlamm / No Show 1.03		41%3–2 (60%)+1.0
8Lane Tech College Prep
Varsity		51.73
school +0.19		Luke Hosek / Audra Spokas-Jaros
William Frendreiss / Lauren Mellinger
Matteo Torquati / Bradley Hill		35%2–3 (40%)+0.2
9Loyola Academy
Ramblers		61.43
school −0.28		Rory Neenan / Claire Russell 1.17
Natalie Norton / Samatha Dwyer 0.29
Gregor Leech / Etain Mckinney 0.16		29%1–4 (20%)−0.5
11Fenwick High School
Friars		32.22Harry Bearrows / Maura Hopkinson
John Hultquist / Elizabeth Gildea
Clark Davis / Aidan Soule		46%0–5 (0%)−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1New Trier HS Green3.906.905–03.9≥+3.001.726%
6Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils2.023.183–22.0+1.150.632%
3Lake Forest High School Mixed3.564.184–13.6+0.620.157%
8Lane Tech College Prep Varsity1.732.022–31.8+0.290.059%
9Loyola Academy Ramblers1.430.741–41.5−0.680.283%
11Fenwick High School Friars2.22-0.780–52.3≤−3.004.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Dylan CotterNew Trier HS1.654.655–03.9≥+3.001.726%
Berenger JeannidesHinsdale Central High School0.261.413–22.0+1.150.632%
David PhlammHinsdale Central High School1.032.183–22.0+1.150.632%
Zach BielaLake Forest High School0.421.044–13.6+0.620.157%
William FrendreissLane Tech College Prep0.030.322–31.8+0.290.059%
Matteo TorquatiLane Tech College Prep0.560.842–31.8+0.290.059%
Rory NeenanLoyola Academy1.170.491–41.5−0.680.283%
Natalie NortonLoyola Academy0.29-0.391–41.5−0.680.283%
Gregor LeechLoyola Academy0.16-0.521–41.5−0.680.283%
Harry BearrowsFenwick High School1.33-1.670–52.3≤−3.004.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
1Lane Tech College Prep VarsityFenwick High School Friars41%upset
2Lake Forest High School MixedLoyola Academy Ramblers83%
3New Trier HS GreenHinsdale Central High School Red Devils82%
4Lake Forest High School MixedFenwick High School Friars74%
5Hinsdale Central High School Red DevilsLane Tech College Prep Varsity56%
6New Trier HS GreenLoyola Academy Ramblers87%
7Lake Forest High School MixedHinsdale Central High School Red Devils77%
8Loyola Academy RamblersFenwick High School Friars35%upset
9New Trier HS GreenLane Tech College Prep Varsity84%
10Hinsdale Central High School Red DevilsLoyola Academy Ramblers61%
11Lake Forest High School MixedLane Tech College Prep Varsity81%
12New Trier HS GreenFenwick High School Friars78%
13Lane Tech College Prep VarsityLoyola Academy Ramblers57%
14Hinsdale Central High School Red DevilsFenwick High School Friars45%upset
15New Trier HS GreenLake Forest High School Mixed55%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 1-2-4 def. Fenwick High School Friars 3-5-6
2 Lake Forest High School Mixed 1-2-3 def. Loyola Academy Ramblers 4-5-6
3 New Trier HS Green 1-2-3 def. Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
4 Lake Forest High School Mixed 1-2-5 def. Fenwick High School Friars 3-4-6
5 Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils 1-3-4 def. Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 2-5-6
6 New Trier HS Green 1-2-3 def. Loyola Academy Ramblers 4-5-6
7 Lake Forest High School Mixed 1-3-4 def. Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils 2-5-6
8 Loyola Academy Ramblers 1-3-4 def. Fenwick High School Friars 2-5-6
9 New Trier HS Green 1-2-4 def. Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 3-5-6
10 Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils 1-2-3 def. Loyola Academy Ramblers 4-5-6
11 Lake Forest High School Mixed 1-2-5 def. Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 3-4-6
12 New Trier HS Green 1-2-4 def. Fenwick High School Friars 3-5-6
13 Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 1-4-5 def. Loyola Academy Ramblers 2-3-6
14 Hinsdale Central High School Red Devils 1-2-5 def. Fenwick High School Friars 3-4-6
15 New Trier HS Green 1-2-4 def. Lake Forest High School Mixed 3-5-6
16 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 2-3-4 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-5-6
17 Latin School of Chicago Romans 1-2-5 def. Lake Forest High School Scouts 3-4-6
18 New Trier HS Blue 1-2-3 def. Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4-5-6
19 Latin School of Chicago Romans 1-2-5 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 3-4-6
20 New Trier HS Blue 2-3-5 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-4-6 DNF
21 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-6 def. Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3-4-5
22 New Trier HS Blue 1-3-6 def. Latin School of Chicago Romans 2-4-5
23 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-3-5 def. Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 2-4-6
24 Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2-3-5 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-4-6
25 Lake Forest High School Scouts 1-2-6 def. New Trier HS Blue 3-4-5
26 Latin School of Chicago Romans 1-2-5 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 3-4-6
27 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 1-3-5 def. Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2-4-6
28 Lake Forest High School Scouts 2-3-4 def. St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1-5-6
29 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 2-3-4 def. New Trier HS Blue 1-5-6
30 Latin School of Chicago Romans 1-3-4 def. Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2-5-6

Conditions — 04/15/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 89%  ·  Pressure 1006.0 hPa

Temperature

35°F
↑ 36°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.0 kn
avg  ·  max 17.8 kn
Gusts to 28.0 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1006.0 hPa Rain0.34 in Snow0.14 in

What this breeze does at Chicago Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Chicago Yacht Club in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Chicago Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Chicago Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →