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MISSA Great Oaks - Silver Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 17 17
2 Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 18 18
3 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 22 22
4 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 33 33
5 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 37 37
6 Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 46 46
7 Robbinsdale Cooper High School Robbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity 51 51
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 1 5 1 1 4 2 2 1 17 Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2, 5]
Beckett Kumler '20 [3-4, 6-8]
Audrey Quist '19 [1-2, 5]
Hanna Siwek '19 [3-4, 6-8]
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 2 4 2 2 1 1 3 3 18 Kate Higgins '18 [1-8]
Marit Lebakken '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Drought '19 [3-4, 7-8]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 4 1 5 4 2 3 1 2 22 Nicole Millerman '19 [1-5, 7-8]
Jack Bull '19 [6]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-5, 7-8]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 6 2 6 3 3 5 4 4 33 Elias Henke '19 [1]
Austin Suvari '19 [2-6]
Lucy Mulvihill '18 [7-8]
Lucy Mulvihill '18 [1-2]
Elias Henke '19 [3-6]
Austin Suvari '19 [7-8]
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity 3 3 4 5 5 4 6 7 37 Greg Wootton '19 [1-6]
Jack Ruder '19 [7-8]
Jack Ruder '19 [1-2]
Graham Knox '20 [3-8]
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 5 7 3 7 7 6 5 6 46 Kelsey Weddig '18 [1-8]
Kaylee Weddig '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Lilly Krause '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Robbinsdale Cooper High School Robbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 5 51 Anastasia Sikkila '18
Liam Black '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Varsity1515161617171818
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles1616171718181919
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Varsity1717181819192020
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits1818191920202121
Gibraltar High SchoolGibraltar High School Vikings1919202021211515
Robbinsdale Cooper High SchoolRobbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity2020212115151616
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity2121151516161717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Varsity Greg Wootton '19 [1-6]
Jack Ruder '19 [7-8]		 Jack Ruder '19 [1-2]
Graham Knox '20 [3-8]
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2, 5]
Beckett Kumler '20 [3-4, 6-8]		 Audrey Quist '19 [1-2, 5]
Hanna Siwek '19 [3-4, 6-8]
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity Kate Higgins '18 [1-8] Marit Lebakken '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Drought '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits Elias Henke '19 [1]
Austin Suvari '19 [2-6]
Lucy Mulvihill '18 [7-8]		 Lucy Mulvihill '18 [1-2]
Elias Henke '19 [3-6]
Austin Suvari '19 [7-8]
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings Kelsey Weddig '18 [1-8] Kaylee Weddig '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Lilly Krause '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Robbinsdale Cooper High School Robbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity Anastasia Sikkila '18 Liam Black '20
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity Nicole Millerman '19 [1-5, 7-8]
Jack Bull '19 [6]		 Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-5, 7-8]

Conditions — 10/08/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 1013.7 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.4 kn
avg  ·  max 13.7 kn
Gusts to 30.1 kn
From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1013.7 hPa Rain0.14 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.37 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →