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MISSA Great Oaks (C-420 Qualifying)

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 15 15
2 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 20 20
3 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 24 24
4 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 25 25
5 St. Paul Central High School St. Paul Central High School Varsity 29 29
6 Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs 29 29
7 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 35 35
8 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves 39 39
9 Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 54 54
10 Robbinsdale Cooper High School Robbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity 60 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 1 4 3 3 3 1 15 Genna Viggiano '18
Clara Brown '18
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 6 1 1 1 6 5 20 Harry Bearrows '18 [1-6]
John Hultquist '20 [1-2]
Maura Hopkinson '19 [3-6]
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 4 2 4 4 2 8 24 Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-6]
Megan Schoenzeit '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mei Vickery '21 [3-4]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 8 2 6 4 3 25 Lillian Nemeth '18
Emerson Wright '19
St. Paul Central High School St. Paul Central High School Varsity 3 6 6 5 5 4 29 Aidan Boylan '18
Leif Saveraid '18
Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs 5 7 5 2 8 2 29 Morgan Termaat '18
Micah Vraynes '21
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 8 5 7 8 1 6 35 Sean Mcaneney '21
Emma Price '19
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves 7 3 8 7 7 7 39 Greg Wootton '19
Jack Ruder '19
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 9 9 9 9 9 9 54 Kelsey Weddig '18 [1-6]
Kaylee Weddig '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Lilly Krause '22 [3-4]
Robbinsdale Cooper High School Robbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity 10 10 10 10 10 10 60 Anastasia Sikkila '18
Liam Black '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Wolves121213131414
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons202021211212
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars131314141515
Gibraltar High SchoolGibraltar High School Vikings141415151616
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs151516161717
Mounds View High SchoolMounds View High School Mustangs161617171818
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet171718181919
Robbinsdale Cooper High SchoolRobbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity181819192020
St. Paul Central High SchoolSt. Paul Central High School Varsity191920202121
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity212112121313
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Wolves Greg Wootton '19 Jack Ruder '19
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars Harry Bearrows '18 [1-6] John Hultquist '20 [1-2]
Maura Hopkinson '19 [3-6]
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings Kelsey Weddig '18 [1-6] Kaylee Weddig '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Lilly Krause '22 [3-4]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs Genna Viggiano '18 Clara Brown '18
Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs Morgan Termaat '18 Micah Vraynes '21
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-6] Megan Schoenzeit '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mei Vickery '21 [3-4]
Robbinsdale Cooper High School Robbinsdale Cooper High School Varsity Anastasia Sikkila '18 Liam Black '20
St. Paul Central High School St. Paul Central High School Varsity Aidan Boylan '18 Leif Saveraid '18
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons Lillian Nemeth '18 Emerson Wright '19
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity Sean Mcaneney '21 Emma Price '19

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From SSE (166°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1020.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →